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Agencies’ ratings have remained relatively stable during 2023. Changes have been mostly positive in peripheral Europe, while US and France were downgraded by Fitch. The rating cycle has been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), mainly due to specific idiosyncratic vulnerabilities.
Over the past six months, the euro has experienced a significant appreciation against the dollar, from lows below parity last fall to levels of around 1.10 in recent weeks. This somewhat expected appreciation has come sooner than anticipated.
Agency’s ratings have remained stable or changes have been positive in Advanced Economies (AE), despite the negative impact of the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening. On the contrary, rating changes have been mostly negative for …
Agencies’ Ratings have remained relative stable since the start of the COVID pandemic and through 2021. Changes have been mainly concentrated in Emerging Economies. Sovereign spreads have been clearly influenced by the strong and coordinated re…
Agencies' sovereign ratings and sovereign spreads in the CDS markets have remained relatively stable over the past year despite the current pandemic crisis and the large fiscal and economic activity deterioration, mainly due to the unprecedente…
The 2020 lockdown resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic cost nearly one million jobs between February and May, a figure similar to what was lost between Aug-08 and Mar-09. In contrast, the measures adopted in 2020 have allowed for a smaller impact on employment than that observed in the GDP.
Nowadays, unlike in the 2008 global financial crisis, there is no credit crunch which would make the economic recovery more difficult. This time, what's happening to credit?
The enormous human cost of the coronavirus crisis is in addition to a considerable global economic impact, which will almost certainly lead to negative growth rates in most of the advanced economies.
Further improvement of sovereign risk measures across the board, driven by a protracted search for yield, against the background of supportive central bank policies, together with better incoming cyclical data, muted inflation and some de-escal…
The risk that the main developed economies are moving towards a regime of reduced economic growth in the medium term has once again gained relevance in recent months. It has been driven by the increase in the probability of recession in the Uni…
Who will pay for the next banking crisis in Europe, and how? One of the lessons learnt from the last global financial crisis is that there must be an end to public bail-outs of banks. To achieve this, it is necessary to define which creditors and which liabilities absorb losses in the event of an institution’s resolution.
The way the European Central Bank modulates its tone with each announcement has recently become an important tool for keeping track of monetary policy. This has come about since central banks have added specific commitments and credible and transparent communication to their toolbox.
