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Agency’s ratings have remained stable or changes have been positive in Advanced Economies (AE), despite the negative impact of the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening. On the contrary, rating changes have been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), although mainly due to idiosyncratic factors.

Agencies’ Ratings have remained relative stable since the start of the COVID pandemic and through 2021. Changes have been mainly concentrated in Emerging Economies. Sovereign spreads have been clearly influenced by the strong and coordinated reaction of Central Banks in both Advanced Economies and Emerging Economies

Agencies' sovereign ratings and sovereign spreads in the CDS markets have remained relatively stable over the past year despite the current pandemic crisis and the large fiscal and economic activity deterioration, mainly due to the unprecedente…

The 2020 lockdown resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic cost nearly one million jobs between February and May, a figure similar to what was lost between Aug-08 and Mar-09. In contrast, the measures adopted in 2020 have allowed for a smaller impa…

Nowadays, unlike in the 2008 global financial crisis, there is no credit crunch which would make the economic recovery more difficult. This time, what's happening to credit?

The enormous human cost of the coronavirus crisis is in addition to a considerable global economic impact, which will almost certainly lead to negative growth rates in most of the advanced economies.

Further improvement of sovereign risk measures across the board, driven by a protracted search for yield, against the background of supportive central bank policies, together with better incoming cyclical data, muted inflation and some de-escalation of global uncertainties (trade war)

The risk that the main developed economies are moving towards a regime of reduced economic growth in the medium term has once again gained relevance in recent months. It has been driven by the increase in the probability of recession in the Uni…

Who will pay for the next banking crisis in Europe, and how? One of the lessons learnt from the last global financial crisis is that there must be an end to public bail-outs of banks. To achieve this, it is necessary to define which creditors a…

The way the European Central Bank modulates its tone with each announcement has recently become an important tool for keeping track of monetary policy. This has come about since central banks have added specific commitments and credible and tra…

This Economic Watch introduces the European Central Bank's (ECB) Monetary Policy Tone index developed from ECB documents, using text mining and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. This analysis allows us to objectively identify and track the relevant thehmes within the ECB’s monetary policy discourse.

The global financial crisis revealed that the banks had not got the resources sufficient to handle a recession as far-reaching as it turned out to be, of a magnitude only comparable with the Great Depression of the 1930s. To prevent anything similar from happening again, the G20 sponsored new accounting rules in creating ne…