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The European economy is slowly entering a long-overdue recession, expected almost since the war in Ukraine began, which may finally be taking place in the last months of the year. It is expected to be moderate and linked to factors that will take us back to more traditional economic cycles.
The markets have performed well in 2021, even taking into account the recent corrections. A successful vaccination rollout supported the reopening of the economy which, along with the various fiscal stimulus packages, helped drive the recovery in domestic demand and increased investor appetite.
Over the summer, the optimism in the financial markets held firm. This was despite the confirmation of the unprecedented collapse of economic activity in the second quarter of 2020 — the result of the drastic measures taken on a global scale to…
The economists who attempt to predict the consequences of interactions between events, policies and institutions are storytellers. Stories that interpret and define economic reality, such as the epidemic triggered by COVID-19.
Emerging assets have successfully managed to overcome a turbulent year, marked by increased protectionism and fears of a sharp slowdown in the world economy.
The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.
Just as current medicine cannot predict exactly when someone will suffer a stroke or cancer, economic science cannot predict precisely when the next recession, financial crisis or sovereign default will occur.
Global Risk Aversion experienced high volatility during the quarter, which was reflected mainly in equity markets, but not in sovereign CDS or emerging currencies markets. The improvement seen since the beginning of the year was favoured by th…
The bet of financial markets on ratings downgrades remain for countries where agencies have already taken recent actions (Argentina, Italy, Turkey). A bias towards a slower Fed's normalization process is supportive for EM ratings; however, prot…
Average growth in Latin America has been hindered in 2018 (0.9%) by the recession in Argentina, although it will recover in 2019 (1.8%) and 2020 (2.6%). The region presents highly diverse economic perspectives, with crisis in Argentina, uncerta…
The increased synchronization and depreciation of Emerging Market's currencies due to both Fed normalization process and, in some cases, idiosyncratic vulnerabilities uprise, have not become a full sell-off across geographies and assets. Beyond markets ups and downs, the resumed leverage trend is a concern for some countrie…
Latin America will grow 1.3% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with considerable heterogeneity across countries. These forecasts are lower than the previous ones, mainly due to the revision of growth in Argentina and Brazil. This adjustment in the two countries could not be compensated by the upward revisions of growth in Mexico, C…
