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August 9, 2019

China | RMB depreciation: this time is different

The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.

July 1, 2019

The global respite turns the focus toward local risks

Just as current medicine cannot predict exactly when someone will suffer a stroke or cancer, economic science cannot predict precisely when the next recession, financial crisis or sovereign default will occur.

March 12, 2019

Country Risk Quarterly Report. First Quarter 2019

Global Risk Aversion experienced high volatility during the quarter, which was reflected mainly in equity markets, but not in sovereign CDS or emerging currencies markets. The improvement seen since the beginning of the year was favoured by the Fed's announcement of a more patient stance in its interest rate policy.

December 10, 2018

Country Risk Quarterly Report. Fourth Quarter 2018

The bet of financial markets on ratings downgrades remain for countries where agencies have already taken recent actions (Argentina, Italy, Turkey). A bias towards a slower Fed's normalization process is supportive for EM ratings; however, protectionism (and its impact on China) is the main risk ahead for EM assets

October 25, 2018

Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

Average growth in Latin America has been hindered in 2018 (0.9%) by the recession in Argentina, although it will recover in 2019 (1.8%) and 2020 (2.6%). The region presents highly diverse economic perspectives, with crisis in Argentina, uncertainty in Brazil and resilience in the Pacific Alliance.

September 11, 2018

Country Risk Quarterly Report. Third Quarter 2018

The increased synchronization and depreciation of Emerging Market's currencies due to both Fed normalization process and, in some cases, idiosyncratic vulnerabilities uprise, have not become a full sell-off across geographies and assets. Beyond markets ups and downs, the resumed leverage trend is a concern for some countrie…

July 25, 2018

Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

Latin America will grow 1.3% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with considerable heterogeneity across countries. These forecasts are lower than the previous ones, mainly due to the revision of growth in Argentina and Brazil. This adjustment in the two countries could not be compensated by the upward revisions of growth in Mexico, C…

July 16, 2018

Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

Growth prospects deteriorate due to the financial volatility, the negative effects of exchange rate depreciation, doubts about whether the next government will face fiscal problems and the consequences of the recent truckers’ strike, among other factors. Thus the recovery process will be more gradual than expected