China | RMB depreciation: this time is different

Summary

The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.

Key points

• Key points:
• The CNYUSD fell past the important psychological level of 7 for the first time since 2008.
• The sharp depreciation came amid the renewed escalation of the China-US trade war after the US President Trump threatened to impose a 10% punitive tariff on the remaining China’s exports of USD 300 billion.
• We argue that the recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015.
• the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years;
• Moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.

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