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After a weak GDP growth of 0.4% in 2023, activity will grow 3.2% in 2024 due to the recovery of the agricultural sector, hydroelectric power generation and private consumption. Even so, reforms are needed to gain competitiveness and maintain a sustainable growth path.
Javier Milei's government took office aiming to have a less regulated and more market friendly economy with the private sector as the main driver of economic growth. The core of his macroeconomic policy is to achieve fiscal equilibrium and eliminate monetary issuance to cover public spending as of 2024.
The macroeconomic scenario deteriorated due to the strong impact of the drought, which substantially reduced agricultural exports, with negative effects on GDP and tax revenues.
The rules versus discretion debate is back on the table, focusing not only this time on monetary policy (where central banks are having a hard time convincing the markets that inflation will return to target), but also on the reform of European…
2023 is a year with a heavy electoral calendar, in a context of growing social concern regarding macroeconomic imbalances and a historic drought. We expect sustained pressures in the FX market throughout the year, with consequences on the GDP a…
With a better than expected 2022, Argentina will face a complex 2023, with a drop in the level of activity and high inflation that will lead to a stagflation scenario. The main challenges will be the rollover of debt in the local market for challenging amounts and the vulnerability of the FX rate scheme.
The deviations from the targets agreed with the IMF triggered a deterioration of expectations and the economic situation, deepened by political tensions. Economic activity will slow down more than expected in the coming quarters.
We analyze the proactive fiscal policy of China in 2022, investigated government debt sustainability amid growth slowdown and make policy suggestions of financing fiscal deficits.
The Government submitted, the fiscal reform bill that includes social measures, mostly transitory, to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the most vulnerable and raises tax collection by 15.2 trillion pesos permanently, of which 70% from co…
The Peruvian economy will grow around 10% in 2021, largely due to a “rebound effect”, but also supported by the favourable external environment and despite both regulatory and electoral uncertainty. In 2022, when the local vaccination process h…
The data corresponding to the third quarter shows a smaller output contraction in line with the recovery following the pandemic, higher public deficit due to the fiscal effort to mitigate the impact and a lower current account deficit.
This week the Ministry of Finance released the fiscal package that he presented to Congress for next year. It is the third presented by this administration. I think it is positive that, after three fiscal packages, it can be confirmed that it is a government committed to maintaining fiscal balances.
