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The macroeconomic scenario deteriorated due to the strong impact of the drought, which substantially reduced agricultural exports, with negative effects on GDP and tax revenues.

The rules versus discretion debate is back on the table, focusing not only this time on monetary policy (where central banks are having a hard time convincing the markets that inflation will return to target), but also on the reform of European fiscal rules.

2023 is a year with a heavy electoral calendar, in a context of growing social concern regarding macroeconomic imbalances and a historic drought. We expect sustained pressures in the FX market throughout the year, with consequences on the GDP a…

With a better than expected 2022, Argentina will face a complex 2023, with a drop in the level of activity and high inflation that will lead to a stagflation scenario. The main challenges will be the rollover of debt in the local market for cha…

The deviations from the targets agreed with the IMF triggered a deterioration of expectations and the economic situation, deepened by political tensions. Economic activity will slow down more than expected in the coming quarters.

We analyze the proactive fiscal policy of China in 2022, investigated government debt sustainability amid growth slowdown and make policy suggestions of financing fiscal deficits.

The Government submitted, the fiscal reform bill that includes social measures, mostly transitory, to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the most vulnerable and raises tax collection by 15.2 trillion pesos permanently, of which 70% from corporate taxes and the rest from anti-evasion and austerity measures.

The Peruvian economy will grow around 10% in 2021, largely due to a “rebound effect”, but also supported by the favourable external environment and despite both regulatory and electoral uncertainty. In 2022, when the local vaccination process h…

  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

The data corresponding to the third quarter shows a smaller output contraction in line with the recovery following the pandemic, higher public deficit due to the fiscal effort to mitigate the impact and a lower current account deficit.

  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

This week the Ministry of Finance released the fiscal package that he presented to Congress for next year. It is the third presented by this administration. I think it is positive that, after three fiscal packages, it can be confirmed that it i…

GDP strongly contracted in the first quarter, reflecting the measures implemented since mid-March by the Government in order to contain the spread of the new coronavirus.

  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the containment measures will have an extraordinary impact on public accounts. The deficit and the public debt will be at their highest levels in the last decade.