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Consumer prices rose by 6.70% in January, higher than our expectation (5.7%) but parallel to the consensus (6.6%) and annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly to 64.86% (vs. 64.77 prev.). We eliminate our previous downward bias and now expect consumer inflation to slow down to 45% by end 2024.

Consumer prices rose by 2.93% m/m in Dec, lower than our expectation (3.3%) and consensus (3.0%) and annual CPI accelerated to 64.77% (vs. 61.98% prev.). We expect 2024 year-end consumer inflation to reach 45%, though recent improvement in inflation trend and potentially stable currency pose downward risk on our forecast.

Consumer prices rose by 3.28% m/m in Nov, lower than both our expectation (4.0%) and cons. (3.7%), while annual inflation accelerated to 61.98% (vs. 61.36% prev.). Considering the recent lower than expected realizations coupled with the positiv…

Consumer prices rose by 3.43% m/m in October, lower than both our expectation (4.5%), resulting in an annual inflation of 61.36%. We expect consumer inflation to be realized closer to the upper bound of the Central Bank’s revised inflation proj…

Consumer prices rose by 4.75% m/m in September, close to our expectation and market consensus (both 4.8%), leading annual inflation accelerate to 61.5%. Assuming a delayed adjustment in the currency and a soft landing in growth, we expect consu…

In August, monthly inflation was 0.70% and annual inflation was 11.43%, above the average expectations of market analysts, who, according to the Banco de la República survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.44%.

Consumer prices rose by 9.09% m/m in August, higher than both our expectation (7.0%) and market consensus (7.2%), resulting in an annual inflation of 58.9% up from 47.8% in July. Considering higher-than-expected August realization, consumer inflation will likely get closer to 70% at the end of this year.

In July, monthly inflation was 0.50% and annual inflation 11.78%, above the average of market analysts' expectations (0.30%), and even above the maximum expected according to Banco de la República's survey. Compared to the annual change in June…

In August, monthly inflation was 1.02% and annual inflation 10.84%, above the average expectation of market analysts (0.54% in monthly variation according to the monthly survey of Banco de la República) and even above their maximum forecast of …

Türkiye’s food security outlook has shown comparatively lower progress with risk factors pointing to multifaceted issues involving food inflation, agricultural imports, natural resources and policy choices. Our analysis assesses all of these ri…

In July, inflation reached a double-digit annual variation of 10.21% and a monthly variation of 0.81%, above analysts' expectations (average monthly variation of 0.53% according to Banco de la República's survey) and BBVA Research.

Consumer prices increased by 4.8% in February and resulted in an annual inflation of 54.4%, (prev: 48.7%). Given the deepening cost push factors, uncertainty on commodity prices and inertia, CPI would surpass 60% in 2Q and 3Q, before falling down to a level at least above 40% on positive base effects in December.