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In August, monthly inflation was 0.70% and annual inflation was 11.43%, above the average expectations of market analysts, who, according to the Banco de la República survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.44%.
Consumer prices rose by 9.09% m/m in August, higher than both our expectation (7.0%) and market consensus (7.2%), resulting in an annual inflation of 58.9% up from 47.8% in July. Considering higher-than-expected August realization, consumer inflation will likely get closer to 70% at the end of this year.
In July, monthly inflation was 0.50% and annual inflation 11.78%, above the average of market analysts' expectations (0.30%), and even above the maximum expected according to Banco de la República's survey. Compared to the annual change in June…
In August, monthly inflation was 1.02% and annual inflation 10.84%, above the average expectation of market analysts (0.54% in monthly variation according to the monthly survey of Banco de la República) and even above their maximum forecast of …
Türkiye’s food security outlook has shown comparatively lower progress with risk factors pointing to multifaceted issues involving food inflation, agricultural imports, natural resources and policy choices. Our analysis assesses all of these ri…
In July, inflation reached a double-digit annual variation of 10.21% and a monthly variation of 0.81%, above analysts' expectations (average monthly variation of 0.53% according to Banco de la República's survey) and BBVA Research.
Consumer prices increased by 4.8% in February and resulted in an annual inflation of 54.4%, (prev: 48.7%). Given the deepening cost push factors, uncertainty on commodity prices and inertia, CPI would surpass 60% in 2Q and 3Q, before falling down to a level at least above 40% on positive base effects in December.
Inflation in August had a monthly variation of 0.45% and stood at 4.44% in annual terms. Foodstuffs continue to be the protagonists in recent increases, although price increases in other goods and services that are highly dependent on the excha…
Consumer prices increased by 1.69% in April, even lower than the minimum estimate shared in the consensus, leading the annual figure to fall to 19.5% from 19.7% in March. Despite the recent currency depreciation, thanks to the base effects cons…
Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breac…
Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.
The Central Bank kept its interest rate corridor unchanged. Bearing in mind the stickiness in inflation and the ongoing high momentum of the economic activity, we expect the Bank not to find enough room for monetary easing until the end of the year when the headline will fall towards 9% thanks to favorable base effects on f…
