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In August, monthly inflation was 1.02% and annual inflation 10.84%, above the average expectation of market analysts (0.54% in monthly variation according to the monthly survey of Banco de la República) and even above their maximum forecast of 0.79%.
Türkiye’s food security outlook has shown comparatively lower progress with risk factors pointing to multifaceted issues involving food inflation, agricultural imports, natural resources and policy choices. Our analysis assesses all of these risk factors, drawing policy suggestions for improving food security of Türkiye.
In July, inflation reached a double-digit annual variation of 10.21% and a monthly variation of 0.81%, above analysts' expectations (average monthly variation of 0.53% according to Banco de la República's survey) and BBVA Research.
Consumer prices increased by 4.8% in February and resulted in an annual inflation of 54.4%, (prev: 48.7%). Given the deepening cost push factors, uncertainty on commodity prices and inertia, CPI would surpass 60% in 2Q and 3Q, before falling do…
Inflation in August had a monthly variation of 0.45% and stood at 4.44% in annual terms. Foodstuffs continue to be the protagonists in recent increases, although price increases in other goods and services that are highly dependent on the excha…
Consumer prices increased by 1.69% in April, even lower than the minimum estimate shared in the consensus, leading the annual figure to fall to 19.5% from 19.7% in March. Despite the recent currency depreciation, thanks to the base effects consumer inflation will likely fall rapidly after June, but reverse in the last 2 mon…
Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably f…
Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its int…
The Central Bank kept its interest rate corridor unchanged. Bearing in mind the stickiness in inflation and the ongoing high momentum of the economic activity, we expect the Bank not to find enough room for monetary easing until the end of the …
