Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
Sort our publications chronologically from newest to oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Sort publications according to the number of time reads by our users, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Inflation registered a significant adjustment in August and will continue to decline despite some additional upward pressures, including the increase in diesel.
In August, monthly inflation was 0.00% and annual inflation was 6.12%, surprisingly well below market analysts' expectations according to Banco de la República's survey (0.24%). With this, the result is 74 bps below the previous month's figure and accelerates the pace of adjustments of previous months.
In July, monthly inflation was 0.20% and annual inflation was 6.86%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.28%) and our forecast (0.24%). With this, the result is 32 bps below the previous month'…
In June, monthly inflation was 0.32%, and annual inflation was 7.18%, slightly higher than the previous month's figure. The result was close to the expectations of market analysts who, according to Banco de la República's survey, expected a mon…
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year e…
Consumer prices rose by 3.18% in April, parallel to our expectation of 3.1% and slightly lower than the consensus of 3.4%, which led to an annual inflation of 69.8%. Given the expectations of a tighter policy mix in the coming period, we acknowledge slight downside risk on our current year-end inflation forecast of 45%.
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradual currency depreciation and continuing demand restrictive policies.
Consumer prices rose by 4.53% in Feb, higher than our exp. and cons. (4.0% both), and annual inflation accelerated to 67.07% (64.86% prev.). Given the strong realizations in Jan. and Feb, we expect tighter financial conditions to be pursued in …
Consumer prices rose by 6.70% in January, higher than our expectation (5.7%) but parallel to the consensus (6.6%) and annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly to 64.86% (vs. 64.77 prev.). We eliminate our previous downward bias and now ex…
Consumer prices rose by 2.93% m/m in Dec, lower than our expectation (3.3%) and consensus (3.0%) and annual CPI accelerated to 64.77% (vs. 61.98% prev.). We expect 2024 year-end consumer inflation to reach 45%, though recent improvement in infl…
Consumer prices rose by 3.28% m/m in Nov, lower than both our expectation (4.0%) and cons. (3.7%), while annual inflation accelerated to 61.98% (vs. 61.36% prev.). Considering the recent lower than expected realizations coupled with the positively surprising rate hikes, the year-end consumer inflation might be around 65%.
Consumer prices rose by 3.43% m/m in October, lower than both our expectation (4.5%), resulting in an annual inflation of 61.36%. We expect consumer inflation to be realized closer to the upper bound of the Central Bank’s revised inflation projections in the near term if managed depreciation is preserved.
