Publications

This presentation analyzes the global outlook (recent developments and forecasts), and focuses on the EU and Asia trade and capital flows, as well as the challenges both areas face arising from global changes and the reshaping of the world order.

This year, the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in Washington were characterized by noise. The biggest concerns remain the impact of tariffs on the economy and on financial assets, especially the dollar.

Colombia’s automotive sector showed signs of recovery in 2024, with a 7.9% sales increase driven by utility vehicles and taxis. Domestic production declined significantly, while imports grew. Improved macroeconomic conditions are expected to further boost the sector in 2025 and 2026.

Amid the current environment, uncertainty over the trend in global (mainly) and local economic policy is currently very high, which can have significant and hard to predict consequences on the decisions of households and businesses alike.

As the end of the year draws to a close, we find the Spanish economy in job creation mode, but with steadily increasing uncertainty over global economic policy.

As expected, today the ECB lowered interest rates by 25bp and revised down growth and inflation forecasts. Lagarde did not give many clues on the next steps but reaffirmed that the disinflationary process is on track. We maintain four more cuts for the first half of 2025 to 2% (depo).

In 2025, the Galician economy could report a 6.4% increase in GDP per capita when compared with 2019, the largest advance within Spain. This brings the autonomous region one step closer to converge with the country as a whole.

Since the beginning of 2020, the loss of purchasing power, measured by the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has been almost 20%.