Global | The economy: between resilience and oil

The balance of 2025 showed economic resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, supported by lower inflation and investment. The war in the Middle East is a supply shock, whose impact will depend on how long it lasts and how oil prices evolve.

Key points

• Key points:
• Economic activity surprised to the upside at the end of 2025, driven by lower inflation, a weaker dollar, and strong investment linked to artificial intelligence in the United States.
• A scenario involving a short military conflict—lasting about one month—would limit the negative impact on global growth. The United States would grow by around 2.5% this year, while the euro area would expand by 1.1% in 2026.
• In a longer conflict scenario, the range of possible outcomes widens significantly. A prolonged war would intensify non-energy inflationary pressures and severely affect regions most dependent on imports from the Persian Gulf, such as Europe and Asia.

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