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The European Central Bank (ECB) had to make a decision in difficult circumstances on Thursday, amid strong financial market turmoil and with the banking sector in the eye of the storm. It raised rates by 50 basis points to 3.50%.
We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks using daily consumption, corporate sales and employment series. We find that the economy responds at both short and long lags that are variable in economically significant ways.
Monitoring and forecasting inflation in Europe in recent quarters has been a real headache for analysts, with continuous upward reviews due to a steady succession of unforeseen shocks that are not down to typical demand or oil price pressures.
For the second time in a row, the ECB has struck with aggressive rate hikes, this time by 75 basis points. A magnitude more or less pre-announced in the last few days, when in July the expectation was increasing by 50.
At last week's ECB meeting Christine Lagarde announced that the central bank has started out on a "journey" toward the normalization of monetary policy through a series of measures that it will take gradually over the next few months.
Home sales have been rallying since the second half of 2020, yet supply is barely growing. If the factors behind the sector’s sluggish recovery are not promptly addressed, the resulting pressure will push prices even higher.
At BBVA we introduced a new indicator built with Big Data, based on the appraisals used in the bank's regular activity, to strengthen price monitoring in the sector. In addition, we built a set of models to improve estimates in real time.
Modest recovery: Latin America will grow 1.4% in 2020 and 2.1% in 2021, after having expanded 0.6% in 2019.
The recovery of growth in Latin America has not materialized for several quarters and the return to average growth rates above 2% has been consistently delayed. The second quarter of 2019 was no exception.
