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Up to March hard data was mixed: retail sales are still strong, but contrast with the weakness of industrial sector and global trade. Soft data slid again in April: manufacturing confidence remains gloomy, while services PMIs fell in DM and EM increasing concerns about contagion effects from trade and manufacturing.
April 15, 2019
Eurozone | More protracted weakness to cause lower growth in 2019, some recovery in 2020
GDP forecasts revised down to 1.0% in 2019 and 1.3% in 2020 driven by global headwinds and a delay in the recovery. The strength of domestic factors along with accommodative monetary policy should continue to underpin consumption and investment, while fiscal policy is slightly more expansive. The most imminent risks remain…
We lower our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.5% due to persistent idiosyncratic factors, particularly in the Eurozone, and higher uncertainty driven mainly by trade protectionism and Brexit. However, further monetary policy accommodation and policy easing measures by China would favour a soft landing.
The hard data up to December were mixed. We saw industrial production continue to decline and exports continue to recover. Also on the positive side, confidence seems to have stopped its downward trend in February. Because of all this our MICA estimates that Eurozone growth for 1Q19 will maintain at around 0.2% q/q.
Global growth saw a slight sequential pick up in 4Q18 (BBVA-GAIN: 0.8% QoQ), signaling stabilization, but still at weak levels and trending lower. Eurozone and China continue to lose steam, while the US shows early signs of stress. Slowdown led by industry while services remain resilient. The later faces rising risk of spil…
We maintain our growth forecast for Uruguay at 1.3% in 2019 and we revised it downwards in 2020 to 1.9% (before 2.2%). An environment of lower global growth, in Argentina and Brazil, as well as the lack of definition of the beginning of the third pulp mill construction will determine a moderate growth in the next two years.
January 29, 2019
Global | Mild adjustment of global growth, but more uncertain due to political risks
The global environment has worsened because of economic and financial deterioration. It partly responds to transitory factors and uncertainty about growth (protectionism, financial conditions, Brexit) that will disappear throughout the year. However, we have revised the global growth forecast downwards, especially in the de…
Global growth has slowed in recent months, affected by protectionist tensions, with a negative impact on financial markets that has been partly reversed thanks to the reaction of central banks. Our new GDP forecasts imply lower overall growth in 2019 and 2020 (3.5% and 3.4% respectively).