Monitoring and forecasting inflation in Europe in recent quarters has been a real headache for analysts, with continuous upward reviews due to a steady succession of unforeseen shocks that are not down to typical demand or oil price pressures.
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For the second time in a row, the ECB has struck with aggressive rate hikes, this time by 75 basis points. A magnitude more or less pre-announced in the last few days, when in July the expectation was increasing by 50.
At last week's ECB meeting Christine Lagarde announced that the central bank has started out on a "journey" toward the normalization of monetary policy through a series of measures that it will take gradually over the next few months.
Home sales have been rallying since the second half of 2020, yet supply is barely growing. If the factors behind the sector’s sluggish recovery are not promptly addressed, the resulting pressure will push prices even higher.
At BBVA we introduced a new indicator built with Big Data, based on the appraisals used in the bank's regular activity, to strengthen price monitoring in the sector. In addition, we built a set of models to improve estimates in real time.
Modest recovery: Latin America will grow 1.4% in 2020 and 2.1% in 2021, after having expanded 0.6% in 2019.
Latin America: gradual recovery in 2020-21, but a surge in uncertainty represents a risk
Latin American GDP will grow 0.7% in 2019, and recover moderately in 2020
The recovery of growth in Latin America has not materialized for several quarters and the return to average growth rates above 2% has been consistently delayed. The second quarter of 2019 was no exception.
Latin America: growth will be of only 1.0% in 2019 and will recover to 2.2% in 2020
July 24, 2019
Eurozone | Softer growth ahead on external and industrial weakness and higher uncertainty
We expect a GDP growth to slow from 1.9% to 1.1% in 2019 and remain relatively stable at 1.2% in 2020 due to easing monetary policy and slightly fiscal stimulus, which should offset shocks from trade war and industrial sector (autos). Risks are tilted to the downside (hard Brexit and increasing global protectionism)
Insurance growth, following a steady progress during the past years, will slow to 2,8% in 2020. The implementation of the autonomous car would imply a reduction in the number of accidents and the cost of premiums. People who subscribe health insurance have healthy lifestyles and are generally healthier than the rest.