forecasts latest publications
The recovery of growth in Latin America has not materialized for several quarters and the return to average growth rates above 2% has been consistently delayed. The second quarter of 2019 was no exception.
July 24, 2019
Eurozone | Softer growth ahead on external and industrial weakness and higher uncertainty
We expect a GDP growth to slow from 1.9% to 1.1% in 2019 and remain relatively stable at 1.2% in 2020 due to easing monetary policy and slightly fiscal stimulus, which should offset shocks from trade war and industrial sector (autos). Risks are tilted to the downside (hard Brexit and increasing global protectionism)
Insurance growth, following a steady progress during the past years, will slow to 2,8% in 2020. The implementation of the autonomous car would imply a reduction in the number of accidents and the cost of premiums. People who subscribe health insurance have healthy lifestyles and are generally healthier than the rest.
July 18, 2019
Global | Updated forecasts: World growth to soft land, amid trade tensions and stimulus
Global growth continues in a smooth downward path, led by the weakness of the industrial sector and exports due to trade tensions. Persistent low inflation led central banks to reassess their monetary policy stance. We revised downward our world GDP forecast 0.1pp to 3.3% for 2019 and 2020, with strongly downward risks
Up to March hard data was mixed: retail sales are still strong, but contrast with the weakness of industrial sector and global trade. Soft data slid again in April: manufacturing confidence remains gloomy, while services PMIs fell in DM and EM increasing concerns about contagion effects from trade and manufacturing.
April 15, 2019
Eurozone | More protracted weakness to cause lower growth in 2019, some recovery in 2020
GDP forecasts revised down to 1.0% in 2019 and 1.3% in 2020 driven by global headwinds and a delay in the recovery. The strength of domestic factors along with accommodative monetary policy should continue to underpin consumption and investment, while fiscal policy is slightly more expansive. The most imminent risks remain…
We lower our 2019 global growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.5% due to persistent idiosyncratic factors, particularly in the Eurozone, and higher uncertainty driven mainly by trade protectionism and Brexit. However, further monetary policy accommodation and policy easing measures by China would favour a soft landing.