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Benefited by falling prices, especially energy ones, and lower interest rates, the Spanish economy is holding up better than expected. The distribution of regional growth is centered on the touristic regions and/or the ones producing high value-added services, which will lead the growth.
The global economy is heading into a year full of political and geopolitical uncertainties that may have a considerable impact on confidence and economic policies.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently published its updated global forecast with an upward revision that reflects moderate optimism for this year, plagued by geopolitical uncertainties.
The economy in general should start 2024 much stronger than expected a year ago after outperforming expectations in 2023. The risks facing the global economy must not materialize for the year to end up better than expected a few quarters ago.
In this Presentation, we explain how geopolitics is becoming a key economic driver in the change of global value chains and the opportunities this brings to Mexican manufacturing production as well as exploring the regional investment opportuni…
The Spanish economy delivered a strong performance throughout the first half of 2023, on the back of a gradual recovery in industrial activity within certain regions of Spain, coupled with an increase in exports, particularly of services, with tourism also pulling hard though with little room for further growth.
The outlook is particularly uncertain, combining slowdown with disinflation, a hangover from two major shocks (COVID-19 and war in Europe) and divergent cyclical trends among the three major global economies.
The European Central Bank (ECB) had to make a decision in difficult circumstances on Thursday, amid strong financial market turmoil and with the banking sector in the eye of the storm. It raised rates by 50 basis points to 3.50%.
We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks using daily consumption, corporate sales and employment series. We find that the economy responds at both short and long lags that are variable in economically significant ways.
Monitoring and forecasting inflation in Europe in recent quarters has been a real headache for analysts, with continuous upward reviews due to a steady succession of unforeseen shocks that are not down to typical demand or oil price pressures.
For the second time in a row, the ECB has struck with aggressive rate hikes, this time by 75 basis points. A magnitude more or less pre-announced in the last few days, when in July the expectation was increasing by 50.
At last week's ECB meeting Christine Lagarde announced that the central bank has started out on a "journey" toward the normalization of monetary policy through a series of measures that it will take gradually over the next few months.
