Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
Sort our publications chronologically from newest to oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Sort publications according to the number of time reads by our users, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
May 19, 2025
The observatory analyzes the cyclical behavior of GDP and exports in Spain up to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a negative gap in GDP per working age population (WAP) compared to its trend level (-0.9 pp), although its growth slightly exceeds the historical trend.
May 16, 2025
Hard data confirms a robust quarterly GDP growth in 1Q25, similar to the previous quarter (1.7% q/q in 4Q24), driven primarily by domestic demand. Leading indicators signal a broad-based weakening in activity for 2Q25. We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% with risks becoming tilted to downside.
May 15, 2025
Colombia’s economy grew 2.7% y/y in Q1 2025, led by household consumption. Investment weakened and sectors showed mixed results. Growth is projected at around 2.5% in 2025, with resilient domestic demand but ongoing challenges in investment and the external environment.
May 15, 2025
In March 2025, GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year. The primary component expanded by 4.9%, driven by the fishing and construction sectors. The non-primary component rose by 4.3%, supported by non-primary manufacturing, construction, and some service segments.
May 12, 2025
Spain has led EU growth since the start of the war in Ukraine. However, weak growth in Europe, persistent geopolitical tensions, and erratic U.S. trade policy overshadow the outlook.
April 29, 2025
The economy slowed and grew less than expected in Q1 2025 (0.6% q/q), mainly due to sluggish consumption and weaker-than-estimated investment momentum. Growth was accompanied by higher employment, although with fewer hours worked and mixed signals on productivity.
April 17, 2025
High frequency data for 1Q25 point that the q/q growth will likely remain steady as in 4Q24, supported by the domestic demand. Despite the uncertainty on trade wars and recent tightening in financial conditions, we evaluate risks as balanced on our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, given the strong buffer of 1Q25 growth.
April 15, 2025
In February, GDP grew 2.7% year-on-year, below the market consensus (3.4%), affected by a negative base effect. The non-primary component grew 2.5%, with construction being the most notable. The primary component grew 2.3%, driven by fishing and agriculture. Mining contracted due to lower gold and zinc production.
April 14, 2025
The temporary suspension of some of the measures has brought relief, but Europe and Spain have taken the opportunity to outline their strategy for addressing the increase in trade barriers and potentially more-negative scenarios.
April 9, 2025
The public deficit looks to have ended 2024 at 2.8% of GDP (excluding the funds set aside to support the victims of the flash floods that struck in October). It is exactly the size of the fiscal imbalance recorded back in 2019.
April 7, 2025
The latest Social Security enrollment figures for March come as welcome news for the Spanish economy, yet they are also a timely reminder that job creation alone is not enough in itself: we also need it to be more productive.
April 4, 2025
This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of carbon price shocks (EU-ETS) via a SVAR with Narrative Sign Restrictions. Facilitating identification and isolating shocks from demand factors, results indicate a stronger economic impact than previous carbon policy studies, but milder than recent works focused on the EU-ETS.
