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The economic activity decelerates further especially driven by the weakening in industry. Aggregate demand remains stronger than supply, keeping inflationary pressures alive. Risks would be on the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%, considering the strong performance in 1H24 and continuing supportive fiscal stance.
Catalonia's GDP could increase by 2.6% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, which would allow 192,000 new jobs to be created in the region in the two-year period.
GDP grew 5.0% y/y in May. The expansion of the fishing sector and primary manufacturing stood out (together they reflect the effect of the greater catch of anchovy). We estimate that the direct contribution of this factor to GDP growth is 2.5 p…
Spain faces two problems hindering its per capita income convergence toward the EU level: unemployment and low productivity growth.
Political events at the centre scene, in a year marked by key elections in many regions with two warlike conflicts with tragic consequences still underway, contrasts with the resilience of the global economy, which continues its very soft landi…
The economic activity shows signs of cooling, while the normalization in demand continues to be gradual. The inflation trend continues easing in the presence of historically much tighter monetary stance. Still, high inflation expectations and supportive fiscal stance remain as the challenges on the inflation outlook.
The GDP of Madrid could increase by 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, which would allow the creation of 183,000 new jobs in the region over the biennium.
Reducing the work week is laudable, but how we go about it is key to achieving the desired effects. Collective bargaining is the ideal instrument to adapt the needs of companies and workers to each business and sectoral reality, in an effective…
Cantabria will advance in the process of convergence in GDP per capita, and in 2025, the regional GDP could exceed the pre-crisis level by 7%.
In 2024, the Spanish economy presents a heterogeneous outlook, with different autonomous communities showing significant variations in their growth prospects. In this quarter's BBVA Research Regional Economic Outlook report we explore the most …
The last two years in Latin America have been marked by differences in macroeconomic policy strategies. Chile and Peru have made significant interest rate reductions as their inflation has allowed. Meanwhile, Colombia and Mexico are more reluctant to implement significant reductions in their rates.
Spain has managed to stay out of the Excessive Deficit Procedure and has no significant economic imbalances, according to the recent European Semester assessment. However, the Commission still identifies important challenges regarding fiscal consolidation and improving future economic performance for sustained growth.
