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August 22, 2019

Approaching fiscal stimulus in Germany

Faced with a 0.1% GDP contraction in the second quarter and the possibility of a third-quarter repeat—as raised recently by the Bundesbank—there is speculation that the German government may approve a stimulus package of up to EUR 50 billion (1.5% of GDP).

August 21, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2019

Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks tilted to downside. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 75% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Downside risks to inflation moderating.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

August 12, 2019

LATAM: recovery delayed again

The recovery of growth in Latin America has not materialized for several quarters and the return to average growth rates above 2% has been consistently delayed. The second quarter of 2019 was no exception.

August 8, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

Record setting U.S. expansion on the ropes. Is Fed one-two punch enough to combat trade uncertainty and global risks?
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

August 8, 2019

Spain | Downward pressure on growth and job creation at the onset of Q3

After the downward surprise in the second quarter of 2019, the growth of the Spanish economy could be around 0.5% t/t during Q3. The available data reinforces the perception that domestic demand has slowed, while external demand is regaining some traction. Moreover, the slowdown in job creation is confirmed

August 7, 2019

Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2019

The economy grew by 0.1% (QoQ) in 2Q19 driven by the service sector; industry continues to slow down.

August 5, 2019

The emperor's new clothes

I'm sure that you all know the story of the emperor who was told by a group of con artists that they would dress him in a suit that was invisible to stupid people. The trick took a long time to be revealed because the emperor, like many of his subjects, was reluctant to admit his own shortcomings despite the evidence.

August 1, 2019

Mexico | Economic slowdown

Yesterday, the INEGI published preliminary growth data for the second quarter. As we know, this showed growth of 0.1% compared with the previous quarter.