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Global | Solid global growth, but moderating amid heightened risks

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Global growth moderates, but remains in line with our GDP growth projections of 3.8% for 2018. Manufacturing activity has lost momentum and the impact from protectionism is starting to weigh on confidence, global trade and investment. Risks have also heightened over the summer due to political uncertainty and idiosyncratic vulnerabilities in emerging markets.

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain | The economy continues to grow, although less than estimated at the beginning of 3Q

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The growth of the Spanish economy could remain at around 0.6% quarterly during 3Q, below that expected at the beginning of the quarter. This, together with the continued risks hanging over the economy, reinforces the downward bias in the 2018 growth forecasts projected by BBVA Research (2.9%).

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. Economic Outlook. September 2018

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Economic conditions remain consistent with high growth and moderate inflation in 2018 & 2019. FOMC remains poised to raise rates at their upcoming meeting in September and again in December. Baseline assumes three additional increases in ‘19. Labor market conditions remain auspicious: strong job growth, low unemployment, rising wages and record-high job openings.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | 2Q growth signals the adjustment is underway

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Turkish economy grew by 5.2% (YoY) in 2Q18 (5.3% Consensus vs. 5.5% BBVA Research). As expected, the seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly growth rate decelerated from 1.5% in 1Q18 to 0.9% in 2Q, which means that the adjustment is underway. We expect GDP to grow 3% in 2018.

Available in English

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Spain | Downward bias in economic growth with high internal and external uncertainty

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After the surprisingly disappointing results in 2Q, the Spanish economy is set to record quarterly growth of 0.7% in 3Q. This, together with the increase of risks and its probability of materialization has meant a downward bias in the 2018 growth forecasts projected by BBVA Research (2.9%).

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2018

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Incoming data consistent with baseline of high growth and inflation in 2018 & 2019. There was no change to FOMC view on the level of accommodation, suggesting that they remain comfortable with further rates increases and additional balance sheet normalization.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia | GDP growth second quarter 2018

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In the second quarter the economy grew by 2.5% (adjusted for seasonality and business days), close to the 2.6% posted for the first quarter. Activity was stimulated by the hiring of professional and scientific services (7.6% annually), the public sector (4.8%) and agro (4.7%). Industry figures foreshadow stronger private consumption.

Available in Spanish

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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In the first half of the year the economy grew by 2.1% relative to the first half of 2017. Inflation: abating in 2018, the spike in June-July will be only temporary. The easing of global trade tensions paves the way for gains for domestic assets given the temporary reduction in idiosyncratic risks.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Latam: the recovery is being held back

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Latin America has not been spared from the onslaught of the process of monetary normalisation in the developed countries in recent months (especially by the Fed). Worldwide risk aversion is on the increase and capital flows which had earlier cheerfully sought out returns in the emerging economies are being re-routed.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for 2018; no change for 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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United States Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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In recent months, concerns surrounding the financial health of the business sector have been on the rise. In particular, market participants are worried that higher price pressures, faster monetary policy normalization, and a trade war, amid stretched valuations, could trigger a significant decline in risk appetite.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Regional Watch. Third quarter 2018

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The maintenance of domestic demand growth and the fiscal impulse will support the growth of the western communities this year. Going forward, the increase in oil price, the exhaustion of the tourism sector, the increase in tariffs worldwide and the uncertainty about economic policy may pose greater risks for some communities.

Available in Spanish

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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The economy is starting to settle into improved performance, with positive surprises. Political tension has reduced, business confidence has improved and private expenditure shows a good performance. As a result, we expect output to grow by 3.6% this year and 3.9% next, more than we forecast in our last report.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Turkish financial assets remain under stress. The level and the duration of adjustment in the economy will depend on the policy reactions in the short term. Inflation reached alarming levels on last year´s loose policies, high inertia and second round effects. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy should complement each other to fight against inflation.

Available in English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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