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July 6, 2020

Spain | COVID-19: A crisis of supply or demand?

The fall in GDP expected as a result of COVID-19 will be unparalleled in history. The decline in GDP per working-age population in 2020 is expected to be 10% greater than the decline seen in 2019, marking a return to levels seen in 2015.

July 1, 2020

Spain | The Spanish economy in the 21st century

Twenty years ago, the Spanish economy started its journey into the 21st century after joining the eurozone in 1999. Since then, Spain has faced two economic expansions and two intense crises of a very different nature, with important consequences for economic policy.

June 30, 2020

Spain | The cyclical position of the Spanish economy during the COVID-19 crisis

This Economic Watch assesses the structural shocks that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during the COVID-19 crisis. For this purpose, we use information from the latest forecasts from BBVA Research (2020) which are exogenous to the model.

June 29, 2020

Spain | Castilla-La Mancha Economic Outlook 2020

In Castilla-La Mancha, GDP could fall between 6.4% and 9% depending on the scenario and the recovery by 2021 could be insufficient to recover the GDP levels of early 2019. Employment could fall between 6.1% and 8.7% in 2020, which would mean losing between 20,000 and 32,000 jobs in the biennium.

June 29, 2020

Global | For the love of trade

The drop in the volume of global trade is reflecting the most severe global recession since the Second World War, both due to the economies affected and the intensity of the expected falls in GDP over the middle quarters of 2020.

June 22, 2020

US | How will employment recover from the COVID-19 crisis?

The COVID-19 health crisis has led to a steep fall in economic activity and employment. The recovery of the labor market will depend on how firms adapt to the new normal, the adjustment of global value chains, changing consumer preferences, and the effects of automation and digitalization.
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June 19, 2020

U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse. June 2020

Baseline assumes real GDP declines by 4.4% in 2020. Peak unemployment reached, but risks to the labor market remain. Disinflationary headwinds abate, but inflation to remain low in 2020. Fed to keep rates at the Zero Lower Bound, balance sheet growth to continue.

June 19, 2020

Mexico | The economic recovery will be slow and square root shaped

Our base case for 2020-2025 GDP growth forecasts does not point to the recovery of the fourth quarter 2019 GDP level until the end of 2023.