GDP

This Observatory evaluates the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of GDP in Spain, full-time equivalent employment and productivity up to 4Q2023.

The GDP of the Canary Islands will increase to 2.6% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025, which will allow it to create 49,000 new people in the community in those two years.

After the local election results, we expect the maintenance of current economic policies with more aggressive tightening in the short term. Therefore, expected additional restrictive measures might generate downside risk on our short term inflation (45% by 2024 end) and growth (3.5% for 2024) forecasts.

Benefited by falling prices, especially energy ones, and lower interest rates, the Spanish economy is holding up better than expected. The distribution of regional growth is centered on the touristic regions and/or the ones producing high value-added services, which will lead the growth.

Downward revision to our 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate to 2.5% (2.9% previously), with lower dynamism of domestic demand.

Economic activity will rebound this year as the negative shocks that affected it in 2023 revert and the environment for private sector spending improves. Output is expected to grow 2,7%, higher than our three-months-ago forecast (2,0%), as weather anomalies related to the coastal El Niño phenomenon have been less intense.