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In 2024, prospects will improve, with service exporting communities benefiting most, while stagnant exports limit the progress of many industrial regions. In 2025, growth moderates and shifts to areas with less tourism weight.
As part of the long tradition of calling economics the “dismal” science, I would like to review some of the risk scenarios facing the Spanish economy, now that BBVA Research has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively.
The moderation in domestic demand continues, while the production side demonstrates a clearer worsening trend in 3Q. We expect GDP growth to be 3.2% and retreat further to 2.7% on restrictive monetary policy, tight financial conditions and expe…
After the good result in July, activity advanced 3.5% year-on-year in August. The performance of the activity continues to be relatively positive if one considers that in August of this year there were two fewer working days compared to the sam…
This Working Paper contains homogenized series of regional funding (constructed on the basis of homogeneous competences and equal fiscal effort) from 2002 to 2022.
Looking at the performance of the global economy, it is striking to see the difference between the relative success of central banks and policymakers in achieving a soft landing for both growth and inflation, and the immense uncertainty resulting from the political and geopolitical environment.
Restrictive monetary policy and tight financial conditions lead output gap to turn into negative in 3Q24. Fiscal consolidation is projected for 2025, which could provide room for a gradual monetary easing. Overall, the policy mix will become more restrictive, potentially curbing GDP growth to below 3% in 2025.
The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and econo…
Economic activity continued to weaken on tighter financial conditions and demand may slow down further in 3Q. We have updated our 2024 growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.5% on base effects, and our 2025 growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.5% on the lagg…
After the poor result in June, activity advanced 4.5% year-on-year in July. The release of private pension funds and an additional working day had a positive impact on this figure.
As expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as inflation improves and medium-term risks diminish. Christine Lagarde dropped no hints regarding possible future decisions, as per the central bank’s recent policy of taking action meeting by meeting, based on hard data.
La Rioja's GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, exceeding the pre-crisis level by 8%, and 2,600 new jobs will be created.
