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The GDP of Murcia may shrink by 10% this year and grow by 6% in 2021. Almost 6,000 jobs could be destroyed. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous in the first half of the year, as was the recovery. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but the risks bias the outlook downwards.
This Economic Watch assesses the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during the COVID-19 crisis. This is done using the data observed up to 3Q20 and the (2020) forecasts by BBVA Research for 4Q20, which are exogenous to the model.
Although the second wave of the pandemic is going to have a major impact on the European economy in the last quarter of this year, recent news items have painted a somewhat clearer picture of what is in store for 2021.
U.S. battening down the hatches after exiting eye of the storm. Fed pause a precursor to further action? Auto sales outlook: health concerns at the wheel. Housing market conditions and outlook.
Current global circumstances will enable the recovery of the Spanish economy to continue in 2021 and will mean that the speed of this recovery depends almost entirely on how successfully national public policies and the private sector manage their way out of the crisis.
The GDP of Andalusia may shrink by 11.8% this year and grow by 6.1% in 2021, losing 90,000 jobs. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous by sectors, urban areas and personal characteristics. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but risks push the perspectives downward.
The GDP of Madrid may shrink by 11.3% this year and grow by 5.4% in 2021, losing 29,000 jobs. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous by sectors, municipalities and personal characteristics. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but risks push the perspectives downward.
The data corresponding to the third quarter shows a smaller output contraction in line with the recovery following the pandemic, higher public deficit due to the fiscal effort to mitigate the impact and a lower current account deficit.