Publications

June inflation remained elevated, at 4.0% y/y, driven by weather-related factors that pushed up prices for fish, fruit, and eggs, while Transport fell on lower fuel prices. Core inflation also rose, to 4.5% y/y, reflecting the pass-through of earlier fuel price increases to urban transport costs.

Castile and Leon will maintain solid growth, hovering around 2% over the two-year period. This is supported by the recovery of exports, private consumption, and a strong labor market, though it faces greater risks stemming from the international environment.

Argentina’s economy continues to consolidate its macroeconomic stabilization. While the external sector is gaining strength through the contribution of energy and mining, the main challenge remains extending the recovery to employment, incomes, and the more lagging sectors of the economy.

Activity grew by 0.6% QoQ in Q1 2026, one-tenth of a percentage point less than forecast, and with a less favorable composition than expected: investment and goods exports surprised on the downside. The advance was driven by hourly productivity, despite the drop in hours worked.

GDP grew 3.7% in April, one of the highest rates of the year and above consensus (3.6%). The gain reflects the non-primary sector (+4.4%): commerce accelerated to 7.3% and construction led despite slowing. The primary sector fell 1.6%, on lower agricultural output and zinc mining production.

GDP grew by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026, a figure similar to that reported for the fourth quarter of 2025. This growth was driven primarily by final consumption and investment in machinery and equipment.

Economic activity increased by 0.6% q/q in 1Q26, one-tenth below expectations, and with a less favorable composition than anticipated: investment and goods exports surprised on the downside. Growth was driven by productivity per hour, despite a decline in hours worked.