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Eurozone growth stabilized in 3Q19 thanks to the resilience of domestic demand, while the deterioration of industrial production and exports has halted. Our MICA-BBVA model projects still low growth in 4Q19. Core inflation has stepped in November, but it is early to tell if it will be sustainable.
The economy of Andalusia grew by 2.4% in 2018 and will advance by 2.0% in 2019 and by 1.6% in 2020. This will add around 150,000 jobs in the biennium (almost 1 in 4 jobs in Spain), recovering to pre-crisis levels. However, the unemployment rate will still be 7.1 p.p. above the 2007 minimum
A wave of protests has shaken Latin America in recent months. The increase in social unrest has led to mass protests in countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia. There are also worries that this could spread to other parts of the region.
The structure of the current Spanish pension scheme is essentially the same as when it was set up at the end of the 1960s. In the 50 years that have gone by since its creation, the only changes it has seen have been to its parameters.
The economy of Madrid grew by 3.7% in 2018 and will advance by 2.6% in 2019 and 2.2% in 2020. Some 128,000 jobs will be created in the biennium, although the risks are numerous and some of them are more likely now. Employment will exceed pre-crisis levels by 1% by the end of the biennium
The publication of world debt data, compiled by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) from various sources, estimates that debt increased again in the second quarter of 2019, reaching 320% of GDP worldwide.
The Spanish economy could continue growing at a quarterly rate of 0.4% in 4Q19, the same as the previous two quarters. If this is confirmed, 2019 would close with an average annual increase of 2.0%, 0.4 pp less than in 2018.