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Turkey | Downside surprise in Industrial Production (IP)

By , , , ,

Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the downside by falling 9.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in December (-8.4% BBVA Research vs. -7.5% Consensus). Thus, IP contracted by 7.5% in 4Q18 after its 1.6% growth in 3Q18. We maintain our view that the recovery in economic activity could start as of 2Q19 and bring the whole year GDP growth rate to 1% in 2019.

Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Infographic Spain Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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The recovery of the Spanish economy will carry on in the coming years, although the slowdown in growth continues. GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2019 and by 2% in 2020. In this context, job creation is expected to continue, in an environment of soft adjustment of world growth and growing internal and external uncertainty.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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The recovery of the Spanish economy will carry on in the coming years, although the slowdown in growth continues. GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2019 and by 2% in 2020. In this context, job creation is expected to continue, in an environment of soft adjustment of world growth and growing internal and external uncertainty.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Regional Watch. First quarter 2019

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The improvement in tourism and consumption in the fourth quarter eases the slowdown in the Levante. However, the trend is still marked by an external context favorable to exports of goods and a lower dynamism of household spending.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Andalusia Economic Outlook. First half 2019

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The economy of Andalusia would have grown by 2.3% in 2018. The recovery will continue in 2019 and 2020, with a GDP growth of 2.3 and 1.9%. 140,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2020, although some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. The unemployment rate and unemployment will continue far from pre-crisis. Inclusive growth is a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Aragon Economic Outlook 2019

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The economy of Aragon may have grown 2.6% in 2018, and will moderate to 2.4% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. It will create over 14,000 new jobs by 2020, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. Total employment will be still far from its pre-crisis level. Inclusive growth is a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Spain Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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The recovery of the Spanish economy will carry on in the coming years, although the slowdown in growth continues. GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2019 and by 2% in 2020. In this context, job creation is expected to continue, in an environment of soft adjustment of world growth and growing internal and external uncertainty.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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United States Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

By , , , ,

Although the U.S. maintains significant advantages such as the strongest military, the world’s reserve currency, the largest economy and the highest ranked universities, there are growing concerns that the country is losing the technological race.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

By , , , , , , ,

Firm policies helped to stabilize Turkish Financial Markets and the economy is re-balancing fast. The economic activity adjustment gained momentum at the end of 2018 but there are early signs of bottoming-out. We expect policymakers stick to sound policies.

Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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The currency crisis of 2018 derailed both the gradual fiscal approach and the inflation targets, and drastically changed the 2019 outlook. The key questions are whether there be a turnaround in activity and inflation, and who the next President will be.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

By , , , , ,

The currency crisis of 2018 derailed both the gradual fiscal approach and the inflation targets, and drastically changed the 2019 outlook. The key questions are whether there be a turnaround in activity and inflation, and who the next President will be.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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We estimate that GDP advanced around 4.6% yoy in Q4 2018. As a result, GDP growth in 2018 would have been around 3.9%. This year, due to a strong increase in mining investment, but also more restrained public spending and less favourable external conditions, we forecast that GDP will advance 3.9% in 2019, a similar figure to that of our previous report.

Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Downward GDP growth revision due to increasing uncertainty and global headwinds

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The EZ growth slowed more than expected in 2H18 as easing global support was exacerbated by one-off factors. This along with increasing uncertainty led us to revise downwards growth to 1.4% in 2019-20, but domestic factors remain solid underpinned by lower oil prices and accommodative policies. Risks are tilted to the downside, mostly related to political issues

Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. Economic Outlook. January 2019

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GDP growth to moderate in 2019. Risk of recession remains elevated over the next 24 months. Fed to delay raising rates in 1H19 as it continues to engineer a soft-landing. Labor market slack remains minimal. Inflation expectations down, as pass-through from rising input costs muted. 10-year Treasury to follow shallower path.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Mild adjustment of global growth, but more uncertain due to political risks

By , , , , ,

The global environment has worsened because of economic and financial deterioration. It partly responds to transitory factors and uncertainty about growth (protectionism, financial conditions, Brexit) that will disappear throughout the year. However, we have revised the global growth forecast downwards, especially in the developed economies.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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