alert_servicealert_serviceENTER user_add user_add NEW USER

Forgot your password?


Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
x

Your space


Forgot your password?
x

Login to participate



Not registered yet? Register now
x
Make your search by entering the text:
Make your search for other criteria:

Catalog Icon

Spain | Downward biases on growth expectations persist

By

The growth of the Spanish economy could be between 0.6% and 0.8% quarterly during Q4. However, the downward surprise recorded in Q3 (0.6% QoQ as against an estimate of 0.7% QoQ), together with the persistence of the risks that hang over the scenario, is maintaining the downward bias on the growth forecast for 2018 by BBVA Research (2.6%).

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

U.S. Economic Outlook. November 2018

By

Modest upside risk to growth in 2018, baseline for 2019 unchanged but risks tilted to the downside. Although models suggest low risk of recession, qualitative analysis indicates downside risks are increasing. FOMC remains poised to raise rates in December. Baseline assumes 3 additional increases in 2019. Labor market slack minimal, as unemployment rate nears 50 year lows.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Madrid Economic Outlook. Second half 2018

By

The economy of the Community of Madrid grew 3.4% in 2017 and will moderate its rate of growth up to 3.2% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. Unemployment will be reduced to 11.4% in 2019, but some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. Once the GDP per capita has returned to its pre-crisis level, the challenge is to reach 2008 level of employment and improve its quality.

Available in Spanish

Catalog Icon

Spain Regional Watch. Fourth quarter 2018

By

With the most recent data, GDP growth remains solid, but it would have slowed down in all autonomous communities. Tourism deepens the moderation of activity in the Mediterranean and island communities. In addition, the lower dynamism in the first half of exports and consumption weighs on growth also in the rest in 2018.

Available in Spanish

Catalog Icon

Presentation Asturias Economic Outlook 2018

By

The economy of Asturias grew 3.5% in 2017, but will moderate it to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. The unemployment rate will reduce to 11.2% in 2019, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. While pre-crisis per capita GDP will be reached, absolute GDP will not; better and stronger job creation remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

Catalog Icon

Asturias Economic Outlook 2018

By

The economy of Asturias grew 3.5% in 2017, but will moderate it to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. The unemployment rate will reduce to 11.2% in 2019, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. While pre-crisis per capita GDP will be reached, absolute GDP will not; better and stronger job creation remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

Catalog Icon

Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By , , , ,

Output growth moderated in the past few months, but this should be transitory. As a result, economic activity would grow 3,6% in 2018. Next year, strong mining investment would drive output growth up to 3,9%. Hence, there are no changes in our forecasts, but we are now considering higher private sector spending and lower from the public sector.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

United States Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By

Market volatility, rich equity valuations, inflationary pressures, a jolt of hawkish monetary policy and the length of the current expansion ratcheted up recessionary fears in 3Q18. Based on empirical evidence and our judgement on the potential for imbalances within the US economy, although the probability of recession within the next 12 months is edging up, it remains low

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Aragon Outlook and Prospects. Fourth quarter 2018

By

Aragon could grow by 2.8% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019 in an export-friendly environment, with investment plans underway and a favourable economic policy. Uncertainty remains at high levels.

Available in Spanish

Catalog Icon

Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The extended currency crisis led to a renegotiation of the agreement with the IMF which increased funding for the aid package to Argentina. The new, more restrictive monetary program is expected to decelerate inflation and stabilize financial variables. In this more adverse scenario we estimate GDP will fall by 2.4% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Some keys to the Italian crisis

By

The fact that investors and the European Commission have turned the spotlight on the Italian economy as a result of Italy's presenting a budget with a public deficit target of a seemingly moderate 2.4% of GDP may seem paradoxical if certain differentiating factors that have accompanied this crisis are not properly understood.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By , , , ,

Output growth moderated in the past few months, but this should be transitory. As a result, economic activity would grow 3,6% in 2018. Next year, strong mining investment would drive output growth up to 3,9%. Hence, there are no changes in our forecasts, but we are now considering higher private sector spending and lower from the public sector.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By , , , , , , ,

Turkey’s firm policy response to the recent financial shocks helped to restore confidence in financial assets. Inflation will remain the key concern in the short term on continuing pass-thru and high cost push factors. Both monetary and fiscal policies included in the New Economic Program (NEP) are now more adequate to restore confidence and re-balance the economy.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Unchanged forecast of steady moderate growth, but downward risks are mounting

By , , , ,

Eurozone GDP growth has stabilized at lower levels and remains robust on strong domestic demand. We maintain our forecasts unchanged at 2.0% for 2018 and 1.7% for 2019, but leading indicators have moderated, raising concerns about sustained growth in a context of monetary policy normalization, strains on Brexit and Italy's budget and the risk of an intensified trade war.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Infographic Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By

The expected growth of the Spanish economy is revised downwards, to 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, due to the negative surprises registered in the first semester. In addition, a downward bias is maintained over the forecasts presented in this scenario, given the increase in uncertainty, both external and internal.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL NETWORKS
OUR VIDEOS
Digital economy
Mexico publications
Spain publications
USA publications
Europe publications
Financial regulation
Market Comment
Infographies
Anuari 2018
Working Papers