Turkey | Contraction in production deepens in April

Summary

Industrial Production (IP) in April contracted by 31.4% yoy as the restrictions and the impact of the COVID on the activity intensified during the month. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020 and wait for June’s indicators to confirm the pace of recovery. Important down side risks remain.

Key points

• Key points:
• The deterioration in IP (sa & cal adj) deepened further in April as it declined by 30.4% mom on the back of the sizable fall in all main sub-sectors but especially capital and intermediate goods productions.
• In the sectorial detail, broad-based worsening accelerated in all sectors but the export-oriented sectors suffered the most.
• Retail sales surprised on the downside by contracting 19.2% in yearly terms.
• Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index in BBG) nowcasts a yearly GDP growth rate of -1.5% in April (96% info) and -7.4% (52% info) in May.

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