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Turkish economy grew by 4% y/y in 1Q23 in line with market expectation (vs. 3.9% consensus and 4.3% ours). Assuming no sharp normalization in economic policies ahead of local election in 2024, we expect GDP growth to be in the range of 4-5% in 2023 on the current strong momentum and expected loose policies.
Turkish economy grew by 3.5% y/y in 4Q22 (vs. 3% exp. and 2.9% consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 5.6% in 2022. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3% in 2023 assuming expansionary fiscal policy and better global growth outlook will compensate the negative impact of the quakes.
This Working Paper analyses σ−convergence and absolute β−convergence in human capital indicators in a sample of 140 countries from 1970 to 2020, and to what extent human capital may have contributed to the convergence in GDP per capita observed…
In the current global socio-economic context, and especially after the COVID-19 crisis, digitization and sustainability have become key elements of economic and social transformation, being particularly relevant to understand and analyze how bo…
This Observatory assesses the factors explaining the behavior of the Spanish economy between the first quarter of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, and estimates the structural shocks behind the growth of GDP per working-age person (WAP), the …
This Economic Watch evaluates the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. For this purpose, we use observed data up to 4Q2020 and real-time estimates for 1Q2021 from BBVA Research.
The COVID-19 crisis has not only led to a fall in per capita consumption but also to increased inequality and a fall in life expectancy (expected to be temporary). As a result, the loss of social welfare has been greater than the fall in GDP.
Although GDP per capita is a good aggregate indicator of market activities (with some limitations due to digital disruption), a broader range of indicators than those traditionally used, such as GDP, is required to measure welfare and the progr…
Desde 2007 ha aumentado la desigualdad entre regiones. ¿Ha revertido este comportamiento con la recuperación? La respuesta es que no.
