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Mexico consolidates as the second country that receives the most remittances, it will surpass China by more than 7 billion dollars, which is in third position in 2022. Despite the adverse economic conditions, the World Bank forecasts that world remittances will increase 2.7 % in 2023.
We expect ongoing easing in global uncertainties, and policy support to sustain flows into EMs, mainly those implementing ‘sound’ policies and with stable currencies. However, concerns over underlying vulnerabilities and the potential for further bouts of cross asset volatility will restrain a sharp recovery in EM inflows.
‘Search for yield’ has emerged as the predominant driver of funds flows in the current low yield backdrop marked by a complicated global macro outlook and supportive central banks.
The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volati…
Global Investment Funds (GIF) flows have been on a roller coaster ride since the start of Q418. Sharp pullback in portfolio flows in late 2018, focus on DMs, but since the start of this year, GIFs inflows recovered particularly to EMs. Looking …
Our BBVA-GAIN model suggests a slight upturn in growth in 4Q18 (0.8% QoQ). There was a positive rebound in hard data in October, but with signs of moderation looking ahead. However, confidence data declined further by year end, especially in developed countries, due to geopolitical risks and trade tensions. Concerns about f…
As expected, Global investment funds registered net outflows for a 2nd quarter in a row. Withdrawals from EM continued while DM’s outflows were an unwelcomed surprise: those from Europe accelerated to a pace not seen since 2011. According to our baseline scenario (cyclical downturn, monetary policy normalization and volati…
Global Investment Funds still attracted sizable flows in 1Q18 while. Recently, some moderation has already occurred with the bulk of flows retrenchment concentrated in developed markets. The financial outlook is certainly challenging for Emergi…
Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in th…
In 4Q17, solid net inflows to Global Investment Funds (GIF) continued to decelerate, but only slightly backed by global factors: macro outlook, oil prices and subdued volatility. Inflows to GIF shall continue to cool down as the unwinding of c…
Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks con…
Official GDP figures have been revised up in 3Q to 1.02% QoQ, which implies a higher projection for 4Q17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1.04%). Further gains in confidence are not fully reflected in hard data. Global trade recovery continues, but at a slower pace. Global headline inflation accelerated in November driven by volatile components…
