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November 12, 2019

Global Funds Outlook | Fourth Quarter 2019

We expect ongoing easing in global uncertainties, and policy support to sustain flows into EMs, mainly those implementing ‘sound’ policies and with stable currencies. However, concerns over underlying vulnerabilities and the potential for further bouts of cross asset volatility will restrain a sharp recovery in EM inflows.

July 30, 2019

Global Funds Outlook | Third Quarter 2019

‘Search for yield’ has emerged as the predominant driver of funds flows in the current low yield backdrop marked by a complicated global macro outlook and supportive central banks.

May 17, 2019

Global Funds Outlook | Second Quarter 2019

The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volatility eases. In a risk scenario, EMs to face more intense and persistent outflows.

February 21, 2019

Global Funds Outlook. First quarter 2019

Global Investment Funds (GIF) flows have been on a roller coaster ride since the start of Q418. Sharp pullback in portfolio flows in late 2018, focus on DMs, but since the start of this year, GIFs inflows recovered particularly to EMs. Looking ahead, EMs would continue to outperform DMs over the short term although hinged o…

December 20, 2018

Global | GDP growth shows increasing signs of moderation ahead

Our BBVA-GAIN model suggests a slight upturn in growth in 4Q18 (0.8% QoQ). There was a positive rebound in hard data in October, but with signs of moderation looking ahead. However, confidence data declined further by year end, especially in developed countries, due to geopolitical risks and trade tensions. Concerns about f…

November 6, 2018

Global Funds Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

As expected, Global investment funds registered net outflows for a 2nd quarter in a row. Withdrawals from EM continued while DM’s outflows were an unwelcomed surprise: those from Europe accelerated to a pace not seen since 2011. According to our baseline scenario (cyclical downturn, monetary policy normalization and volati…

May 8, 2018

Global Funds Outlook. First quarter 2018

Global Investment Funds still attracted sizable flows in 1Q18 while. Recently, some moderation has already occurred with the bulk of flows retrenchment concentrated in developed markets. The financial outlook is certainly challenging for Emerging Markets as volatility and interest rates “normalize” in a context of high debt…

February 23, 2018

Global | Growth momentum continues, with some signs of exhaustion in confidence levels

Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in the Eurozone. Core inflation showed slight upward pressures in advanced economies.