Global | GDP growth shows increasing signs of moderation ahead

Summary

Our BBVA-GAIN model suggests a slight upturn in growth in 4Q18 (0.8% QoQ). There was a positive rebound in hard data in October, but with signs of moderation looking ahead. However, confidence data declined further by year end, especially in developed countries, due to geopolitical risks and trade tensions. Concerns about further slowing in coming quarters are increasing.

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