Publications

Nearly seven years after the onset of the nearshoring phenomenon, in the last week of 2024, the National Strategy for Industrialization and Shared Prosperity was unveiled, summarized as "Plan México." The first comprehensive project from Mexico's government focused on strengthening the country's role in global value chains.

In this release of our Regional Sectoral Outlook is set apart by the change of base year in August 2023 with an updated perspective of the sectoral and regional composition of the Mexican economy. During 2024, the GDP of Finance could grow the most (5.3%), followed by Management (5.3%) and Entertainment & Recreation (4.5%)

EZ GDP growth is expected to slow slightly further to 0.1% QoQ in 2H19. Available data so far show worsening exports, especially those to other EU countries, and industrial output. There are further signs on more moderate consumption and subdued investment despite improving labour market and favorable financing conditions.

Recent weeks have seen an escalation of restrictive measures and trade retaliation between the US and China, as well as restrictions placed on the activity and investment of foreign technology companies in domestic markets or the announcement of further tariffs imposed by the US to Mexico.

Our BBVA-GAIN model projects the world GDP to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18, up from 0.9% in 4Q17. Global exports strengthened significantly in February, but industrial output and retail sales were modest in early 2018. Confidence remains at high level in 1Q18 so far, but showing some signs of moderation.

Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.