Publications

On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6–3 decision, ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to unilaterally impose broad-based tariffs. The decision struck down most “reciprocal” and emergency tariffs.

The United States faces global uncertainty in terms of trade policy, with forecasts of inflation and interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Colombian economy is recovering, with consumption driving the recovery. Unemployment rates are low and informality is on the rise.

In this release of our Regional Sectoral Outlook is set apart by the change of base year in August 2023 with an updated perspective of the sectoral and regional composition of the Mexican economy. During 2024, the GDP of Finance could grow the most (5.3%), followed by Management (5.3%) and Entertainment & Recreation (4.5%)

The drop in the volume of global trade is reflecting the most severe global recession since the Second World War, both due to the economies affected and the intensity of the expected falls in GDP over the middle quarters of 2020.

Recent weeks have seen an escalation of restrictive measures and trade retaliation between the US and China, as well as restrictions placed on the activity and investment of foreign technology companies in domestic markets or the announcement of further tariffs imposed by the US to Mexico.

Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a cruise speed growth in 1Q18 at 0.6/0.7% QoQ, supported by strong global trade and fixed investment. Despite solid fundamentals, we observed early signs of moderation as weak hard data in January adds to a cooled optimism in 1Q. Annual inflation eased again to 1.1% in February driven by food, while the core figure remained steady at 1.2%.

Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.