Published on Tuesday, November 21, 2023 | Updated on Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Mexico | Regional Sectorial Outlook. Second Half 2023

In this release of our Regional Sectoral Outlook is set apart by the change of base year in August 2023 with an updated perspective of the sectoral and regional composition of the Mexican economy. During 2024, the GDP of Finance could grow the most (5.3%), followed by Management (5.3%) and Entertainment & Recreation (4.5%)

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Wholesale Trade, Manufacturing and Agriculture could increase their GDP growth rate in 2024, both due to an increase in domestic consumption and a positive turn in investment, as well as higher exports.
  • By the end of 2022 (most recent official data is 2021 at the date of publication), we estimate that Tabasco would be the state with the highest GDP growth rate (17.3%), followed by Quintana Roo with 11.3% and Hidalgo with 10.8%
  • In accumulated figures from January to June 2023, automotive production reached 1.9 million units, an increase of more than 200 thousand vehicles compared to the same period last year.
  • We estimate GDP at the municipal level, revealing high-growth regions within states differentiated by sector. In 2021, the municipalities with the highest GDP are Miguel Hidalgo and Cuauhtémoc in CDMX and Monterrey in Nuevo León.
  • During 1H23, Mexico became the US's main trading partner, surpassing China and Canada. US imports of Computers, Electronics, Transportation Equipment, Machinery and Furniture were the drivers for achieving this milestone related to the nearshoring trend.

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