Global trade latest publications
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a cruise speed growth in 1Q18 at 0.6/0.7% QoQ, supported by strong global trade and fixed investment. Despite solid fundamentals, we observed early signs of moderation as weak hard data in January adds to a cooled optimism in 1Q. Annual inflation eased again to 1.1% in February driven by food, w…
March 26, 2018
Global | Strong momentum continues in 1Q18 driven by trade, despite some weaker data in DM
Our BBVA-GAIN model projects the world GDP to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18, up from 0.9% in 4Q17. Global exports strengthened significantly in February, but industrial output and retail sales were modest in early 2018. Confidence remains at high level in 1Q18 so far, but showing some signs of moderation.
Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks con…