October 2, 2019
Global trade latest publications
EZ GDP growth is expected to slow slightly further to 0.1% QoQ in 2H19. Available data so far show worsening exports, especially those to other EU countries, and industrial output. There are further signs on more moderate consumption and subdued investment despite improving labour market and favorable financing conditions.
Recent weeks have seen an escalation of restrictive measures and trade retaliation between the US and China, as well as restrictions placed on the activity and investment of foreign technology companies in domestic markets or the announcement of further tariffs imposed by the US to Mexico.
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a cruise speed growth in 1Q18 at 0.6/0.7% QoQ, supported by strong global trade and fixed investment. Despite solid fundamentals, we observed early signs of moderation as weak hard data in January adds to a cooled optimism in 1Q. Annual inflation eased again to 1.1% in February driven by food, w…
March 26, 2018
Global | Strong momentum continues in 1Q18 driven by trade, despite some weaker data in DM
Our BBVA-GAIN model projects the world GDP to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18, up from 0.9% in 4Q17. Global exports strengthened significantly in February, but industrial output and retail sales were modest in early 2018. Confidence remains at high level in 1Q18 so far, but showing some signs of moderation.
Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks con…