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The expansion of global trade has slowed in recent years, following a long period of exuberance. How will trade flows evolve over the next decade, taking into account recent trends such as the pandemic and climate change, as well as other factors?
International trade will slow down by 2030, due to both traditional factors (technology, economic development, trade policies) and new determinants (COVID-19, sustainability).
COVID-19 dealt a heavy blow that moved us firmly into the digital age. Thus, in 2021 it will be crucial to shape and strengthen the agreements and institutions to thrive in such a landscape. And there are various obstacles to overcome in that regard.
The rules-based approach to the governance of the trade of goods and services and investment flows is facing increasing challenges against the background of rivalry between the United States, China and Europe. The Asian country now being considered a strategic competitor and a systemic rival.
The drop in the volume of global trade is reflecting the most severe global recession since the Second World War, both due to the economies affected and the intensity of the expected falls in GDP over the middle quarters of 2020.
The US’ decision, just hours after the G7 summit, not to support its closing joint communiqué reaffirming the need for regulated, open multilateral global trade, may have come as a surprise to many, but it was not really surprising.
USA, EU and China are the main nodes of the world trade network. 1980-2008 was the most recent period of high dynamism of trade boosted by EM growth, technological and logistic advances and, last but not least, enhanced multilateralism approach. The globalization challenge is to reach a more even distribution of its benefit…
Globalisation is very closely related with economic development. The periods of greatest dynamism in trade and GDP were the decades leading up to the WW I, those following WW II and the period between the mid-1980s and the onset of the crisis in 2009. This latter period was characterised by the prominent role played by emer…