Publications

The growing mistrust between the East and the West is creating a geopolitical scenario that for many is reminiscent of the Cold War era; a time when domestic markets advanced under the weight of interventionist policies, and relations between countries were belligerent and highly volatile.

The ECB and most central banks in developed economies have taken up the baton by setting an inflation target of 2%. This is an unenviable task: the only genuinely and uncontested effective tool at their disposal is interest rate control, which loses effectiveness the further inflation is from the set target.

International trade will slow down by 2030, due to both traditional factors (technology, economic development, trade policies) and new determinants (COVID-19, sustainability).

COVID-19 dealt a heavy blow that moved us firmly into the digital age. Thus, in 2021 it will be crucial to shape and strengthen the agreements and institutions to thrive in such a landscape. And there are various obstacles to overcome in that regard.

The drop in the volume of global trade is reflecting the most severe global recession since the Second World War, both due to the economies affected and the intensity of the expected falls in GDP over the middle quarters of 2020.

The US’ decision, just hours after the G7 summit, not to support its closing joint communiqué reaffirming the need for regulated, open multilateral global trade, may have come as a surprise to many, but it was not really surprising.

Globalisation is very closely related with economic development. The periods of greatest dynamism in trade and GDP were the decades leading up to the WW I, those following WW II and the period between the mid-1980s and the onset of the crisis in 2009. This latter period was characterised by the prominent role played by emerging markets and technological improvements.

Desde 2013 se ha producido un intenso proceso de creación de empleo. Tras destruir un 17,1% de la afiliación a la Seguridad Social desde Julio de 2007 a Febrero de 2013, se ha recuperado ya el 68,3% de la afiliación destruida (Junio 2017).