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The residential market is in a process of adjusting sales due to rising interest rates and the slowdown in neighboring economies, yet the level of sales remains relatively high. Nevertheless, housing prices continue to grow as a result of the shortage of supply.
This document aims to show the main causes behind the lower growth of housing prices in Spain, and most of its autonomous communities, compared to what has been observed in other developed economies that have faced the same macroeconomic scenario.
In recent months, the country’s real estate market has not been performing as one might expect, in the sense that house prices are not receding as sales decline.
Housing demand will be restricted by the increase in interest rates and new housing production will remain at similar levels to 2019. Unlike in other countries, there are no price imbalances and the moderation in growth will come mainly from us…
Housing sales will slow in 2023 due to slower economic growth, rising interest rates and a reduction in savings accumulated in the pandemic. The shortage of supply will make the contraction of permits less intense and the price will remain stag…
BBVA Research present the report on the Colombian real estate sector for the year 2022. This edition covers the dynamics and structure of the sector, its prices and costs, financing and interest rates, the non-residential market and the long-term determinants of housing demand.
Agency’s ratings have remained stable or changes have been positive in Advanced Economies (AE), despite the negative impact of the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening. On the contrary, rating changes have been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), although mainly due to idiosyncratic factors.
Today, as recession looms and inflation rears its head, we are likely to see a return to a somewhat gloomy housing market, even if house prices do not actually fall. But how hard will the adjustment be this time around?
Real estate market is starting to feel the economic slowdown and the rise in interest rates. This context justifies a contraction in sales in 2023, despite which the level will remain high. Housing starts will stagnate in 2023 and the nominal p…
At BBVA we introduced a new indicator built with Big Data, based on the appraisals used in the bank's regular activity, to strengthen price monitoring in the sector. In addition, we built a set of models to improve estimates in real time.
In this work, a model has been developed to find out the deviation of housing prices from an estimated equilibrium level, both at regional and provincial level, as well as to forecast its evolution. The results obtained show the high heterogeneity of the Spanish real estate market.
In December, neither sales nor mortgage origination made up all the ground lost in October and November, ending the quarter with a loss. This was in a context of job creation, but lower household confidence and greater uncertainty in the sector. New housing permits rose in November after falling for three months.
