Housing market latest publications
Young Spaniards emancipate at the age of 30, about three years later than the European average. One of the main reasons for this delay is related to the difficulty of accessing housing at a reduced cost and in a location that meets the preferences of recent graduates.
In the coming months, the real estate sector will be conditioned by the downward revision of economic growth, the war in Ukraine, the shortage and high inflation of construction materials, the foreseeable rise in interest rates and the persistence of regulatory uncertainty.
During the confinement, families spent more time at home, which in some cases awakened the need, or the desire, to have a larger house to make day-to-day life at home easier and, who knows, to be prepared for similar eventualities in the future.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused the real estate market to collapse and led to a substantial change in the interests of the different players. Although housing prices fell significantly, demand is still very weak.
Housing sales fell more in the Canary Islands than the Spanish average and have not recovered to their pre-pandemic level. The main reason is the reduction in foreign purchases, whose weight fell below 30% in the first 9 months of 2020. Meanwhile, prices fell by 0.9% in 2020, less than the average (-1.1%).
Despite the fall in GDP in 2H20 (-9.0% YoY), housing sales rose by 2.4% and mortgages by 5.1%. However, many of the factors supporting sales may be temporary. Towards the second half of the year, the sector could show a vigorous recovery. Its fundamentals are solid.
The sale of homes and the signing of permits suffered a notable correction during the months of confinement. This resulted in a drop in residential prices in 2Q20 and 3Q20, the first time since 2015. The correction could continue in 2021, although a recovery is possible towards the second half of the year.
In this work, a model has been developed to find out the deviation of housing prices from an estimated equilibrium level, both at regional and provincial level, as well as to forecast its evolution. The results obtained show the high heterogeneity of the Spanish real estate market.