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The COVID-19 pandemic caused the real estate market to collapse and led to a substantial change in the interests of the different players. Although housing prices fell significantly, demand is still very weak.
Housing sales fell more in the Canary Islands than the Spanish average and have not recovered to their pre-pandemic level. The main reason is the reduction in foreign purchases, whose weight fell below 30% in the first 9 months of 2020. Meanwhile, prices fell by 0.9% in 2020, less than the average (-1.1%).
Despite the fall in GDP in 2H20 (-9.0% YoY), housing sales rose by 2.4% and mortgages by 5.1%. However, many of the factors supporting sales may be temporary. Towards the second half of the year, the sector could show a vigorous recovery. Its fundamentals are solid.
The sale of homes and the signing of permits suffered a notable correction during the months of confinement. This resulted in a drop in residential prices in 2Q20 and 3Q20, the first time since 2015. The correction could continue in 2021, although a recovery is possible towards the second half of the year.
In this work, a model has been developed to find out the deviation of housing prices from an estimated equilibrium level, both at regional and provincial level, as well as to forecast its evolution. The results obtained show the high heterogeneity of the Spanish real estate market.
The first known data from the real estate sector at the beginning of the confinement corroborate that Covid 19 has affected the sector. In March, home sales fell by 41% m/m, the highest since 2007. House prices fell for the first time in 21 quarters (-0.4% m/m) and residence permits decreased by 36% m/m.
The real estate market has not yet recovered the tone it had before the last regulatory reforms. Thus, despite the relatively positive determinants of demand, home sales fell in November, which did not prevent a slight rise in mortgages. Supply-side variables show weakness
Home sales lost traction in 1H19 despite positive demand determinants. At the same time, construction activity maintained its growth trend. Housing price showed an upward trend, especially for new housing. The market shows a high regional heterogeneity