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Agencies’ Ratings have remained relative stable since the start of the COVID pandemic and through 2021. Changes have been mainly concentrated in Emerging Economies. Sovereign spreads have been clearly influenced by the strong and coordinated reaction of Central Banks in both Advanced Economies and Emerging Economies
Agencies' sovereign ratings and sovereign spreads in the CDS markets have remained relatively stable over the past year despite the current pandemic crisis and the large fiscal and economic activity deterioration, mainly due to the unprecedented support from fiscal and monetary policies
The real estate market has not yet recovered the tone it had before the last regulatory reforms. Thus, despite the relatively positive determinants of demand, home sales fell in November, which did not prevent a slight rise in mortgages. Supply-side variables show weakness
Further improvement of sovereign risk measures across the board, driven by a protracted search for yield, against the background of supportive central bank policies, together with better incoming cyclical data, muted inflation and some de-escalation of global uncertainties (trade war)
The loss of traction in the real estate market was somewhat more intense in the early summer months. The contraction of sales in the last months has been reflected in a moderation of the growth of housing price in 2Q19. On the other hand, construction activity is beginning to show signs of deceleration
The search for yield and looser monetary policies across the board, favor sovereign spreads compression, despite a worsening global outlook, poorer incoming data and balance of risks, and the lack of improvement of fiscal disequilibria.
Home sales lost traction in 1H19 despite positive demand determinants. At the same time, construction activity maintained its growth trend. Housing price showed an upward trend, especially for new housing. The market shows a high regional heterogeneity
Against a background of increasing concerns on economic cycle strength and uprise of global trade tensions, the central banks' more dovish tone helps that financial tensions and global risk aversion remain bounded.