Published on Thursday, June 20, 2019

Country Risk Quarterly Report. Second Quarter 2019

Against a background of increasing concerns on economic cycle strength and uprise of global trade tensions, the central banks' more dovish tone helps that financial tensions and global risk aversion remain bounded.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Downgrade rating pressures from financial markets on sovereign ratings are concentrated on a few specific countries.
  • The rating agencies updates have been concentrated in Emerging Markets during the lattest two quarters, while the few changes in Developed Markets have been mostly positive.
  • The consolidation of a clear regional divergence between financial and fiscal vulnerabilities is noteworthy.
  • Private leverage disequilibria are currently concentrated in some Developed Markets, and in China within the Emerging Markets
  • Housing prices gaps point to high imbalances in some countries that also have vulnerabilities in their credit markets

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