Publications

Despite elevated and potentially rising US tariffs, global trade remains resilient. Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures.

The EU-Mercosur agreement presents a favorable scenario for growth, investment, and trade. Spain maintains a strategic link that sits above the European average, driven by business investment and the supply of key inputs.

International trade continues to perform solidly despite rising protectionism. While U.S. tariffs have moderated following recent agreements and exemptions, they remain elevated and global trade imbalances persist. This points to short-term resilience, but with meaningful risks of greater fragmentation over the medium term.

After more than 25 years of negotiations, Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) and European Union (EU) reached an association agreement in December 2024— a turning point in the history of both regions. It is currently undergoing legal review, and a provisional implementation is expected by the beginning of 2026.

In the 21st century, history is again being challenged by a wave of protectionism from the United States. President Donald Trump has just announced a barrage of tariffs that marks the country's biggest protectionist offensive in almost a century.

Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has been ramping up his protectionist agenda, reigniting uncertainty over trade and global growth. The increase in tariffs on imports of goods not only affects the US economy, but its repercussions extend worldwide.

In the third quarter, the current account deficit continued to narrow and reached 1.68 billion dollars, representing 1.7% of GDP. Nevertheless, the reasons for this closing are not as good as others: they respond to the process of contraction that domestic demand has undergone so far this year.