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May 31, 2019

Mexico | Trump’s Tariff Threat has the potential to be a game changer for Mexican Economy

Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.

July 12, 2018

China | What will be the country’s weapons in the trade war arsenal?

After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.

June 6, 2018

China | Reignited China-US trade war and its implication on global value chain

We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries …

March 21, 2016

Spain | Trade balance starts the year with slightly positive signals

Good trade flows rose in real terms in January, which compensated the observed atony from the end of 2015. All in all, the accumulated deficit in the last 12 months of the trade balance was reduced marginally despite a strong improvement in the energy balance.

February 18, 2016

Spain | Trade deficit slightly moderates in 2015

Both real good exports and imports took a step back in December, which did not stop the fourth quarter and the overall value for 2015 from closing the year with a positive balance. All in all, the trade balance's accumulated deficit barely varied in 2015, despite the improvement in the energy balance.

October 22, 2015

Spain | Trade balance worsening exceeded expectations in August

Both real exports and imports of goods surprised on the downside in August, partially offseting the positive start of the second quarter. Despite the relief in the energy bill, the trade balance deficit widened that month.

September 21, 2015

Spain | July trade balance beats expectations at the start of 3Q15

Both real exports and imports of goods surprised positively in July. Trade balance deficit decreased mainly as a consequence of reducing energy bill.

August 18, 2015

Spain | June trade balance confirms the expected improvement at the end of 2Q15

Both real exports and imports of goods grew in June, closing the second quarter in positive. The trade balance deficit increased despite the reduction of the energy bill