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Purchases of machinery and equipment, excluding transport, have performed well during the recovery period. The import analysis indicates an acceleration in the transition towards a productive and green energy-intensive model, together with a promotion of automation and digitalization.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, the European Union (EU) has had to rethink its long-standing reliance on Russian gas, which accounted for around 40% of the region’s total consumption in 2021. Notably, this reliance has been growing over the last few years.

In the first quarter, GDP grew 8.5% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter. Consumption remained a good dynamic driven by spending on durable and semi-durable goods and the services sector. Investment, which performed well, was driven by th…

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated severe sanctions represent a significant supply shock, with negative effects on both growth and inflation, through the commodity, financial volatility, confidence and supply chain channels. In …

Imports have been less affected by COVID-19 than expected. In the first half of the year, the adjustment shifted to goods produced within the country and, to a lesser extent, on purchases from the rest of the world. Similarly, during the recove…

COVID-19 has reduced the weight of imports on GDP less than at the beginning of the 2008 crisis. This for various reasons. On the one hand, the crisis is perceived as temporary. On the other hand, it largely affects non-tradable sectors of activity, particularly tourism, with low dependence on imports.

Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.

After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to …

We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited imp…

Good trade flows rose in real terms in January, which compensated the observed atony from the end of 2015. All in all, the accumulated deficit in the last 12 months of the trade balance was reduced marginally despite a strong improvement in th…

Both real good exports and imports took a step back in December, which did not stop the fourth quarter and the overall value for 2015 from closing the year with a positive balance. All in all, the trade balance's accumulated deficit barely varied in 2015, despite the improvement in the energy balance.

Both real exports and imports of goods surprised on the downside in August, partially offseting the positive start of the second quarter. Despite the relief in the energy bill, the trade balance deficit widened that month.