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China's exports and imports are experiencing some structural change. The forced Chinese version of imports substitution industrialization indicates value chain upgrading and technology self-sufficiency.
In 2022, Spanish GDP growth again outstripped the eurozone average. Moreover, import prices rose further, enabling the country to maintain its current account surplus and therefore reduce its reliance on external funding.
In the last two decades China has substantially increased its importance both in the world trade of goods, tripling its weight in world exports and imports, and in the trade of services and capital. This is reflected in substantial changes in C…
Purchases of machinery and equipment, excluding transport, have performed well during the recovery period. The import analysis indicates an acceleration in the transition towards a productive and green energy-intensive model, together with a pr…
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, the European Union (EU) has had to rethink its long-standing reliance on Russian gas, which accounted for around 40% of the region’s total consumption in 2021. Notably, this reliance has been growing ov…
In the first quarter, GDP grew 8.5% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter. Consumption remained a good dynamic driven by spending on durable and semi-durable goods and the services sector. Investment, which performed well, was driven by the purchase of machinery and the advance of intellectual property.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated severe sanctions represent a significant supply shock, with negative effects on both growth and inflation, through the commodity, financial volatility, confidence and supply chain channels. In the current context, uncertainty is exceptionally high.
Imports have been less affected by COVID-19 than expected. In the first half of the year, the adjustment shifted to goods produced within the country and, to a lesser extent, on purchases from the rest of the world. Similarly, during the recove…
COVID-19 has reduced the weight of imports on GDP less than at the beginning of the 2008 crisis. This for various reasons. On the one hand, the crisis is perceived as temporary. On the other hand, it largely affects non-tradable sectors of acti…
Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.
After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.
We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries …
