May 31, 2019
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Incremental tariffs (up to 25%) would likely push the Mexican economy into a recession; inflation risks, an overly hawkish Banxico and fiscal constraints would limit the room for countercyclical fiscal and/or monetary policies.
After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.
We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries …
Good trade flows rose in real terms in January, which compensated the observed atony from the end of 2015. All in all, the accumulated deficit in the last 12 months of the trade balance was reduced marginally despite a strong improvement in the energy balance.
Both real good exports and imports took a step back in December, which did not stop the fourth quarter and the overall value for 2015 from closing the year with a positive balance. All in all, the trade balance's accumulated deficit barely varied in 2015, despite the improvement in the energy balance.
Both real exports and imports of goods surprised on the downside in August, partially offseting the positive start of the second quarter. Despite the relief in the energy bill, the trade balance deficit widened that month.
Both real exports and imports of goods surprised positively in July. Trade balance deficit decreased mainly as a consequence of reducing energy bill.
Both real exports and imports of goods grew in June, closing the second quarter in positive. The trade balance deficit increased despite the reduction of the energy bill