Publications

Inflation averaged 1.7% m/m in the last quarter, the lowest level in eight years (22% annualized). The monthly figure is in line with expectations (BBVA: 1.8%, REM-BCRA: 1.8%), so we maintain our projection of 28% y/y for 2025.

Monthly inflation in July stood at 0.28%, exceeding analysts’ expectations. As a result, the annual inflation rate rose to 4.9%, marking an 8 basis point increase compared to June’s figure. This outcome was mainly driven by an acceleration in the inflation of perishable food items.

Lingering challenges for the growth outlook should maintain Banxico’s confidence that monetary policy can (and should) continue to ease. We think Banxico will remain confident in further services disinflation ahead and will proceed with a 25bp rate cut this week.

Consumer prices rose by 2.06% m/m, lower than both consensus (2.4%) and our expectation (2.5%), driving annual inflation down to 33.5%. Considering unanchored inflation expectations, high services inertia and upward pressure on the food inflation going forward, we expect the year-end inflation to reach 30%.

A rate cut in September remains a possibility if the labor market proves to be "on the edge" and weakens sharply, but that seems unlikely at this point. For now, "we have a long way to go to really understand exactly how [the tariff-related inflationary effect] will be."

We expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting and do not anticipate growing dovish support. The uncertainty over the end level of tariffs and its inflation impact, along with a still solid labor market, give the Fed room to wait.

The CBRT cut the policy rate by 300bps to 43%, above the 250bps consensus, with similar cuts in the corridor (41.5%-46%). The tone seems to turn dovish vs. June, signaling scope for continued cuts at each meeting, with the size reviewed with a focus on inflation outlook, despite ongoing price and financial stability risks.

The fiscal bill approval, set to push debt higher over the next decade, had puzzlingly only a muted impact on term premia and the U.S. dollar. Treasury yields also showed little movement despite renewed tariff threats, suggesting a belief the government will not follow through on those threats.