Publications

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Latest publications on Inflation

Argentina | Low impact of exchange rate movements on August inflation

10 September 2025

National inflation in August was 1.9% month-on-month, remaining at the same level as the previous month despite the full impact of exchange rate and interest rate movements at the end of July. This was slightly below analysts' expectations.

Colombia | August inflation at 5.1%, second consecutive increase

8 September 2025

Monthly inflation in August was 0.19%, in line with analysts' expectations and BBVA Research. This brings annual inflation to 5.1%, an increase of 20 basis points compared to July, and marks two consecutive months of inflation increases.

Türkiye | Core inflation eases, food bites

3 September 2025

Consumer prices rose by 2.04% m/m in August, above our expectation and consensus (1.75%), resulting in an annual inflation of 32.95%. We maintain our inflation forecast of 30% by end 2025 and assess that the CBRT might reduce the pace of cuts going ahead in order to contain the risk of sticking to 1.5-2% monthly CPI trend.

Peru | Inflation approaches the lower limit of the target range

1 September 2025

The Lima Consumer Price Index (CPI) contracted 0.29% in August 2025, surprising the consensus of analysts. Year-on-year inflation fell to 1.1%, close to the lower limit of the Central Bank's target range. Inflation excluding food and energy rose slightly to 1.8%.

US | Despite expected cuts, investors push Treasury spreads higher

28 August 2025

Three developments shaped the Treasury market over the past month: a weak jobs report, a dovish tone from Powell at Jackson Hole, and renewed political pressure stemming from Trump’s push to replace Governor Lisa Cook from the Fed’s Board.

Argentina | July inflation was 1.9% m/m, the third consecutive month below 2%

14 August 2025

Inflation averaged 1.7% m/m in the last quarter, the lowest level in eight years (22% annualized). The monthly figure is in line with expectations (BBVA: 1.8%, REM-BCRA: 1.8%), so we maintain our projection of 28% y/y for 2025.

Colombia | Inflation increases in July, to 4.9%

11 August 2025

Monthly inflation in July stood at 0.28%, exceeding analysts’ expectations. As a result, the annual inflation rate rose to 4.9%, marking an 8 basis point increase compared to June’s figure. This outcome was mainly driven by an acceleration in the inflation of perishable food items.

Mexico | Banxico’s unchanged guidance signals more rate cuts ahead

8 August 2025

The absence of new language suggesting increased caution—despite recent core inflation stickiness—indicates that most members remain open to continuing the easing cycle, albeit at the current more gradual pace of 25 bps per meeting.

Mexico | Banxico’s easing window remains open despite mixed data

6 August 2025

Lingering challenges for the growth outlook should maintain Banxico’s confidence that monetary policy can (and should) continue to ease. We think Banxico will remain confident in further services disinflation ahead and will proceed with a 25bp rate cut this week.

Türkiye | Encouraging surprises, underlying strains in July CPI

4 August 2025

Consumer prices rose by 2.06% m/m, lower than both consensus (2.4%) and our expectation (2.5%), driving annual inflation down to 33.5%. Considering unanchored inflation expectations, high services inertia and upward pressure on the food inflation going forward, we expect the year-end inflation to reach 30%.

Peru | Inflation in July remains low, with a seasonal rise due to national holidays

1 August 2025

Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.23% in July 2025, in line with expectations. As a result, year-on-year inflation remained at 1.7% comfortably within the Central Bank's target range. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy also stood at 1.7%.

US | Fed stays put as it tries to get the "timing right" for resuming cuts

31 July 2025

A rate cut in September remains a possibility if the labor market proves to be "on the edge" and weakens sharply, but that seems unlikely at this point. For now, "we have a long way to go to really understand exactly how [the tariff-related inflationary effect] will be."

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