Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Inflation

Peru | Inflation in July remains low, with a seasonal rise due to national holidays

1 August 2025

Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.23% in July 2025, in line with expectations. As a result, year-on-year inflation remained at 1.7% comfortably within the Central Bank's target range. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy also stood at 1.7%.

US | Fed stays put as it tries to get the "timing right" for resuming cuts

31 July 2025

A rate cut in September remains a possibility if the labor market proves to be "on the edge" and weakens sharply, but that seems unlikely at this point. For now, "we have a long way to go to really understand exactly how [the tariff-related inflationary effect] will be."

US | FOMC majority unlikely to support near-term rate cuts

28 July 2025

We expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting and do not anticipate growing dovish support. The uncertainty over the end level of tariffs and its inflation impact, along with a still solid labor market, give the Fed room to wait.

Europe | The ECB hits pause to think things over

28 July 2025

At her press conference on Thursday after the ECB meeting, President Lagarde said goodbye to journalists and listeners wishing to hear more about a ‘wait and see’ holiday, an expression widely used by central bankers to imply that the next monetary policy moves will depend on how events unfold.

Türkiye | The Hawk That Dove: Surprising hurry of the CBRT to ease

24 July 2025

The CBRT cut the policy rate by 300bps to 43%, above the 250bps consensus, with similar cuts in the corridor (41.5%-46%). The tone seems to turn dovish vs. June, signaling scope for continued cuts at each meeting, with the size reviewed with a focus on inflation outlook, despite ongoing price and financial stability risks.

US | Concerns over Fed independence keep weighing on term premia

24 July 2025

The fiscal bill approval, set to push debt higher over the next decade, had puzzlingly only a muted impact on term premia and the U.S. dollar. Treasury yields also showed little movement despite renewed tariff threats, suggesting a belief the government will not follow through on those threats.

Argentina | June inflation recorded 1.6% m/m, another downside surprise

15 July 2025

June's inflation rate was 1.6% m/m (39.4% y/y), marking the second consecutive month below the 2% m/m level. This scenario indicates a more rapid disinflation process than previously anticipated, leading us to revise our December 2025 inflation forecast downward to 28% y/y from our prior projection of 30% y/y.

Colombia | Inflation moderates in June, standing at 4.8%

8 July 2025

Colombia's annual inflation for June 2025 stood at 4.8%, with a monthly variation of 0.10%, lower than the 0.19% expected by analysts. This marks the first time it has been below 5.0% since October 2021. The moderation was explained by the food and regulated items baskets.

Spain | Public debt digs in its heels: the tailwinds peter out

7 July 2025

Spanish public debt will come down very slowly over the coming years and is at risk of stagnating at around 100% of GDP. It seems that the extraordinary conditions that helped it come down have been squandered to promote reforms that would lead to a more robust path of fiscal consolidation.

Türkiye | Hope Heats Up as Inflation Cools Down

3 July 2025

Consumer prices rose by 1.37% m/m, lower than both our expectation and the consensus (1.5%), driving annual inflation down to 35.05%. Given the positive surprises of the last 3 months, we underline a high likelihood of a year-end consumer inflation below 30%.

Peru | No surprises: inflationary pressures remain absent

1 July 2025

The CPI rose by 0,13% m/m in June, broadly in line with analysts’ consensus. As a result, year-on-year inflation remained at 1,7%, comfortably within the Central Bank’s target range. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, on the other hand, declined and also stood at 1,7%.

Latam | Region sailing on choppy waters

30 June 2025

Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical environment for Latin America in 2025. This has led to high market volatility, caution from monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting economic variables.

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