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April 13, 2024
March CPI rose 11.0% m/m and inflation marked the third consecutive monthly deceleration. The exchange rate anchor, the calm of the parallel exchange rates, the fiscal and monetary astringency and the drop in the level of activity are the main factors that explain this result.
Banco de la República has reduced its policy rate by one percentage point since November 2023. This brings the rate to 12.25%, still a high level, especially considering that March inflation stood at 7.4% and the most recent activity figures point to a stagnant economy.
After the local election results, we expect the maintenance of current economic policies with more aggressive tightening in the short term. Therefore, expected additional restrictive measures might generate downside risk on our short term infla…
There is good news for the European Central Bank (ECB) thanks to the clear reduction of inflationary pressures, led by the slowdown in the prices of industrial goods, energy and food — and, to a lesser extent, by services, which still show a ve…
In March, monthly inflation was 0.70% and annual inflation was 7.4%, a reduction of around 37 bps compared to February. The result was slightly above market analysts' expectations, who according to the Banco de la República's survey expected a …
The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth uncertainty and moderation in ECB bond purchases also contributed to the upside.
The world's attention in recent months has been focused on the decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), geopolitics—especially the conflict in the Middle East—and activity in China. Little attention is paid to Latam, and there is scarcely talk of its economic policy or the dynamics of its activity.
A few days ago, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the first revision of its operational framework, designed to guide short-term interest rates into line with its monetary policy decisions and provide liquidity in a context of gradual ba…
Banco de la República reduced its policy rate by 50bp to 12.25%. With this, the Board of Banrep consolidates a 100bp cut since December when it started the process of rate reductions and accelerates the pace of cuts from 25bp to 50bp . Five Boa…
This first rate cut marks the start of a long and gradual easing cycle that will most likely keep the monetary policy stance restrictive throughout this year and next even if Banxico cuts the policy rate without skipping any meeting in the rema…
The Fed appears to have achieved a better balance of risks around its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. This suggests that it will soon begin to normalize its policy stance, probably in June, although it will proceed cautiously even after that.
Inflation moderated less than expected in the first two months of ‘24 constrained by the modest decline in services. Our supply bottlenecks indicators inched up in February 2024 but remain at very low levels.
