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Upward revision to our 2023 real GDP growth estimate to 3.4% (3.2% previously); we anticipate a 2.9% growth rate for 2024 (2.6% previously). The GDP growth rate for next year would be below the corresponding figure of 2023 due to a lower external stimulus.
The Colombian economy will grow 1.5% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Private consumption, in the same two years, will grow at rates of 2.2% and 3.0%, respectively. And fixed investment will move from negative (-2.0% in 2024) to positive figures (6.2% in 2025).
Javier Milei will be the new president of Argentina. He takes office with the challenge of correcting strong imbalances in the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate fronts. The adjustment of spending and changes in relative prices will lead to an …
The eurozone economy has been virtually stagnant for several quarters now, underperforming expectations so far in the year's second half and with no clear signs of recovery on the horizon.
We will learn this month about the last monetary policy decisions of the year in Mexico and the United States. The announcements from the central banks will be crucial for analysts, market participants, and the general public to obtain a cleare…
Following a less hawkish tone from Chair Powell in his press conference early this month, the yield curve now suggests a potential turning point has been reached, reflecting investors’ belief that the Fed is done raising rates and growing expectations of rate cuts in 2024.
In October, U.S. CPI dropped to 3.2% YoY, a 0.5% decrease driven by stable headline inflation, lower-than-expected core print, and reduced housing and energy prices. Anticipating continued cooling, 4Q is expected to average 3.4% YoY for headline inflation and 4.0% for core inflation.
BBVA Research forecasts GDP growth in La Rioja of 2.3% in 2023. Although the scenario going forward deteriorates, the recovery will continue, and GDP growth of 1.8% is expected in 2024. 5,700 jobs could be created in the 2023-2024 biennium.
A year ago, most analysts predicted that the U.S. economy would enter a recession in 2023 due to the Fed's monetary policy rate hikes aimed at dealing with the inflation surge that occurred at the end of the most critical phase of the pandemic.
After signaling in September that the policy rate was set to remain unchanged “for an extended period,” Banxico now says that it must be kept unchanged “for some time.”
Although we continue to expect the beginning of a rate cut cycle in 1Q24, Banxico’s cautiousness and hawkishness are significantly tilting the risks towards a further delay in the start of this cycle.
The post-pandemic recovery process has been a mixed bag. On the plus side, both the labor force and employment have grown. However, GDP growth has not been enough to increase per capita income and productivity, and the gap with the EU has widened somewhat more than in the ten-year period leading up to COVID-19.
