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    May 16, 2025

    Mexico | Banxico remains focused on growth headwinds, signals another 50bp cut in June

    A key indication that Banxico's primary concern has shifted from inflation to growth is its acknowledgment, for the first time, that “since the inflationary episode has been left behind,” the fight against inflation is at a new stage.

    May 14, 2025

    Argentina | Inflation in April was 2.8% m/m, lower than expected

    April national inflation was 2.8% m/m (47.3% y/y), placing it below expectations (REM-BCRA: 3.2% m/m, BBVA Research: 3.4%) as a result of a more virtuous exchange rate dynamics -post easing of restrictions- than initially expected.

    May 13, 2025

    Mexico | Banxico set to deliver another 50bp cut despite signs of slower disinflation

    In contrast to the Fed, who held rates unchanged last week, Banxico has room to continue cutting rates. A low exchange rate pass-through and deeper domestic capital markets grant Banxico greater policy independence from the Fed than in the past.

    May 9, 2025

    Colombia | Annual inflation surprised on the upside in April, reaching 5.2%

    Annual inflation in April surprises on the upside (5.2%), driven by regulated items and goods. Core inflation (excluding food) also increases. Doubts persist regarding the speed of future moderation. This result may lead to upward revisions of forecasts and uncertainty about the future monetary policy stance.

    May 8, 2025

    US | Fed likely to hold rates steady in June as it awaits clearer signals from data

    Recent softness in sentiment is not enough to shift policy as solid demand and stable jobs data support a continued pause. Attention now turns to assess whether this cautious pause could extend deeper into the second half of the year.

    May 5, 2025

    US | Fed to stay put as it waits for tariff effects to show up in 2Q data

    Amid mixed economic data and the delayed effects of recently imposed tariffs, we expect the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged this week at its 4.25-4.50% target range; it will likely signal it has room to maintain its policy stance heading into the June meeting.

    May 2, 2025

    Peru|Year-on-year inflation rose in April, but remains comfortably within the target range

    In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32%, exceeding expectations. The increase was driven by seasonal factors related to Easter, which pushed up the prices of fishery products and transportation services. Poultry prices also rose again. In contrast, fuel prices declined.

    April 30, 2025

    Colombia | BanRep reduces 25bps its policy rate, unanimously, to 9.25%

    The Board of Banrep reduced the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 9.25% in April. This decision was unanimous. On this occasion, they highlighted that inflation and inflation expectations derived from the debt markets declined.

    April 24, 2025

    US | Policy uncertainty and rising term premia are keeping Treasury yields elevated

    While Trump recently suggested he would not try to remove Powell from his position following last week’s intensified criticism, such threats to institutions underpinning the dollar’s global dominance pose a serious risk to the future of the global financial system.

    April 8, 2025

    Colombia | Inflation Ends 4-Month Stable Streak, Settles at 5.1% in March.

    In March 2025 Colombia's total inflation decreased to an annual rate of 5.1% breaking a four-month period of stability or slight increase. This moderation was primarily driven by a decline in non-food inflation, particularly due to the regulated basket. March monthly inflation was 0.52% falling below analysts' expectations.

    April 7, 2025

    Latam | Economic normalization amid an uncertain environment

    The last months of 2024 gave some glimpses of the challenges Latam could face in the coming years. However, looking beyond the first quarter of 2025, some—albeit not all—of these warning signs have faded.