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July 1, 2020

Peru | Negative monthly inflation in June

Lima's Consumer Price Index fell 0.27% m/m in June, a downside surprise for the market (Bloomberg Consensus: -0.10% m/m). With June's monthly result, year-on-year inflation slowed down to 1.6%, from 1.8% the previous month.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

June 23, 2020

Mexico | Easing cycle will continue, but Banxico will remain cautious

Yet, we continue to expect Banxico to cut the policy rate until it reaches c. 0% real levels by year-end ie, 3.0% to 3.5%. The Board’s concerns on the ER should have eased in the intermeeting period.

June 19, 2020

U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse. June 2020

Baseline assumes real GDP declines by 4.4% in 2020. Peak unemployment reached, but risks to the labor market remain. Disinflationary headwinds abate, but inflation to remain low in 2020. Fed to keep rates at the Zero Lower Bound, balance sheet growth to continue.

June 4, 2020

Mexico | May inflation forecast: temporary jump in inflation

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.58% MoM in May, thereby accelerating to 3.04% YoY from 2.15% in April. We anticipate a 0.36% MoM core inflation increase (3.71% YoY, up from 3.50% in April).

June 3, 2020

Turkey | May CPI confirms upside risks on inflation

Consumer prices increased by 1.36% in May. Therefore, annual inflation accelerated to 11.39% from 10.94% in April. Depending on the food inflation and the level of exchange rate, headline inflation could stay close to 12% in June before converging to 9% towards the end of 3Q and ending the year at near 8.5%.

May 20, 2020

Mexico | YoY headline inflation volatility kicks in driven by the rebound in energy prices

We expect headline inflation to post a 0.00% HoH change in the first half of May, thereby increasing to 2.5% YoY from 2.2% in the second half of April. We anticipate a 0.09% HoH core inflation increase (3.60% YoY, unchanged from 3.61% in the previous fortnight).

May 14, 2020

Mexico | Easing cycle continues, but with another hawkish and cautious cut

Banxico cut the policy rate by 50bp to 5.50% but surprisingly continued to strike a hawkish tone. It seems that the central bank is more focused on the exchange rate and capital flows than on inflation and economic activity.

May 12, 2020

U.S. | CPI report confirms disinflationary headwinds building

In April, consumer prices declined 0.8% over-the-month, in the first signs of a major downdraft in inflation. Today’s numbers were significantly below expectations and marked the lowest monthly decline since December 2008.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA