Inflation latest publications
Baseline assumes growth of 2.3% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 50% over the next 24-months. Moderate job growth and steady unemployment for foreseeable future. Inflation close to 2%, but downside risks remain.
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.79% MoM in November (2.96% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.65% YoY).
Consumer prices increased by 0.38% mom in November, way lower than market consensus and ours (0.75%, Bloomberg vs 0.77%, BBVA). Annual inflation increased to 10.56% from 8.55% in October due to the unfavorable base effect. We expect that annual inflation will increase close to 11.8% at the end of 2019 with downside risk.
The global slowdown extends into 4Q19, as some incoming figures continue to be weak despite a better tone on trade negotiations and lower brexit risks. Services and domestic demand continue to sustain growth while manufacturing and trade have stabilized in Q3, but confidence data for Q4 have been mixed so far.
November 4, 2019
Mexico | October inflation forecast:stable headline inflation & lower core in annual terms
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.51% MoM in October (2.99% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.66% YoY).
Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong favorable base effect . We expect year end annual inflation to materialize as 11.8%.
After eight years in office at the European Central Bank (ECB), it is time for Mario Draghi to pass the baton in eurozone monetary policy. Christine Lagarde will become the first woman to head the ECB.