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October 17, 2019

Colombia Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2019

Colombia will continue to consolidate growth amid considerable headwinds from the foreign sector.

October 17, 2019

Global | Downward revision of world growth forecasts amidst increasing uncertainty

Global growth will continue to decelerate in 3Q19, as higher trade protectionism and uncertainty keep having a negative impact on global activity. Countercyclical policies, led by central banks, help to mitigate negative effects, but they will not prevent the global economy from slowing more than expected three months ago.

October 10, 2019

Mexico | Increases to the minimum wage, without effects on employment and inflation

In the last two years the minimum wage has had significant increases: 10% in 2018 and 16% this year. However, these figures must be put in context. From 1980 to 2018 the real minimum wage lost just over 60% of its value.

October 8, 2019

Mexico |September inflation forecast:annual headline inflation will ease for the 5th month

Core inflation will drop for the fourth consecutive month.

October 2, 2019

Eurozone | Weaker growth in 2H19 on worsening global trade, but also lower domestic demand

EZ GDP growth is expected to slow slightly further to 0.1% QoQ in 2H19. Available data so far show worsening exports, especially those to other EU countries, and industrial output. There are further signs on more moderate consumption and subdued investment despite improving labour market and favorable financing conditions.

September 27, 2019

Global | Weaker global momentum extends into 2H19 driven by China and the EZ

Global growth slowed markedly in 2Q19, with weakening signs stemming from China and the EZ. Increasing trade tensions and higher uncertainty are weighing on trade and the industrial sector, but are also reflected in investment and domestic demand. Weaker momentum extends into 3Q19.

September 26, 2019

A still cautious Banxico cuts its policy rate to 7.75%

There is still plenty of room to cut rates; we expect at least 50bp of additional easing by year-end.

September 25, 2019

Banxico will cut 25bp their rate on Thursday and on each of the remaining meetings in 2019

Given softer inflation and easing inflation risks an easing cycle has further to run.