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December 6, 2019

U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse. December 2019

Baseline assumes growth of 2.3% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 50% over the next 24-months. Moderate job growth and steady unemployment for foreseeable future. Inflation close to 2%, but downside risks remain.
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  • USA

December 3, 2019

Mexico | November inflation forecast: core continued to ease slowly in November

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.79% MoM in November (2.96% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.65% YoY).

December 3, 2019

Turkey | Inflation surprised on the downside

Consumer prices increased by 0.38% mom in November, way lower than market consensus and ours (0.75%, Bloomberg vs 0.77%, BBVA). Annual inflation increased to 10.56% from 8.55% in October due to the unfavorable base effect. We expect that annual inflation will increase close to 11.8% at the end of 2019 with downside risk.

November 28, 2019

Global | Stable industry and resilient services, but the weak momentum persists

The global slowdown extends into 4Q19, as some incoming figures continue to be weak despite a better tone on trade negotiations and lower brexit risks. Services and domestic demand continue to sustain growth while manufacturing and trade have stabilized in Q3, but confidence data for Q4 have been mixed so far.

November 21, 2019

Mexico | 1H of November inflation forecast

Relatively stable YoY inflation in the first half, but lower in November.

November 4, 2019

Mexico | October inflation forecast:stable headline inflation & lower core in annual terms

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.51% MoM in October (2.99% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.66% YoY).

November 4, 2019

Turkey | Inflation materialized as expected

Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong favorable base effect . We expect year end annual inflation to materialize as 11.8%.

November 4, 2019

ECB: New President, New Policy?

After eight years in office at the European Central Bank (ECB), it is time for Mario Draghi to pass the baton in eurozone monetary policy. Christine Lagarde will become the first woman to head the ECB.