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Policy rate expectations and Treasury yields eased from their late-April’s highs on softer employment and inflation data released recently.

The key point remains to be suppressing consumption since the slow-down in domestic demand is still limited and aggregate demand remains stronger than supply. We eliminate our previous downward bias on 2024 GDP forecast (3.5%) and get ready to have a downward revision on our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2024.

The CBRT signals to remain tight as long as needed, while new fiscal measures signal that the policy mix will be more coordinated. Considering the lagged impact of policies, we believe macro-prudential measures to contain still solid consumptio…

While members continued to state that “the disinflation process is expected to continue,” the stickiness of core services inflation drove Banxico to revise up its inflation forecasts after considering that “inflationary shocks are foreseen to t…

Without major surprise, in May the Central Bank cut once again its policy rate by 25bp, bringing it to 5,75%. We estimate that from now on the monetary normalisation process will unfold more gradually, closely following the behaviour of core in…

The disinflation process stalled in the first quarter in the U.S. and in April in the Eurozone (EZ). Additionally, most countries seem stuck with high services prices. Disruptions in shipping routes continued, but without wreaking havoc in supply chains.

Monthly inflation in April was 0.59% and annual inflation 7.16%, close to market analysts' expectations (0.57%, according to Banco de la República's survey) and in line with our estimate (0.60%).

The favorable core inflation trend gives Banxico room to continue lowering the policy rate, which will remain tight during 2024-25 despite a gradual rate cut cycle, but we now expect Banxico to pause the rate cut cycle this week and take rates …

Consumer prices rose by 3.18% in April, parallel to our expectation of 3.1% and slightly lower than the consensus of 3.4%, which led to an annual inflation of 69.8%. Given the expectations of a tighter policy mix in the coming period, we acknow…

The meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are useful to gauge the health of the economy and analyze the challenges it faces. The snapshot this year has been upbeat since global growth forecasts have been revised up and the IMF has a…

In a context of a strong economy and a lack of further progress on inflation in recent months, the Fed unequivocally signaled that it can be patient and will give the restrictive monetary policy stance more time to do its job before deciding to cut rates.

Banrep Board maintains March's pace of cuts, with a 50bp reduction in April, accumulating a total of 150bp since it started its downward rate cycle in December 2023. The decision was split, with 5 members in favor of the 50bp reduction, one member in favor of a 75bp reduction and one in favor of a 100bp reduction.