Inflation latest publications
The Colombian economy will enter a lower growth fase. Private consumption will stabilize at more sustainable levels in the medium term. Inflation will gradually moderate in 2023. The Central Bank will have space to start a gradual interest rate reduction cycle at the end of 2023.
The inflation targeting regime adopted by Banxico in 2001 became the monetary policy strategy that has prompted relevant improvements in communication and transparency of its goals, plans and policy decisions.
GDP growth in 2022 is revised upwards (4.4%) and the outlook deteriorates in 2023 (1.0%). The economy could remain stagnant in the coming quarters, or register moderate declines, due to heightened uncertainty, higher inflation expectations and interest rates.
Inflation continued to rise and in September registered an annual change of 11.4% and a monthly change of 0.93%. The figure was higher than expected by the average of market analysts and BBVA Research, at the upper limit of forecasts (0.92%), although it was lower than the monthly inflation observed in the previous month.
Consumer prices rose by 3.08% in September, below both market consensus (3.15%) and our expectation (3.7%), which led to an annual inflation of 83.5%. We expect consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year as base effects would start a disinflation path.
The recession facing Europe and the United States, if not more countries, over the coming quarters is likely to be a quieter affair than other, deeper recessions seen in recent times. Ultimately, the current distortions within the economy are not as significant as in previous crises.
Banxico will most likely stick to following in the footsteps of Fed’s upcoming hikes .
There’s a lot of tightening still in the pipeline: Banxico will likely match the (now larger) Fed’s expected rate hikes .