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January 24, 2020

U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse. January 2020

Baseline assumes growth of 1.8% in 2020, potential upside emerging. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 30% over the next 24-months. Moderate job growth and steady unemployment for foreseeable future. Inflation close to 2%, downside risks fading.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

January 24, 2020

Eurozone | slightly upward growth forecasts, but weakness persists

Eurozone growth forecasts are revised slightly upwards due to better incoming data, but we continue to expect some slowdown from 1.2% in 2019 to 0.9% in 2020 before recovering gradually to 1.2% in 2021.

January 24, 2020

Latin America | What matters in 2020?

Modest recovery: Latin America will grow 1.4% in 2020 and 2.1% in 2021, after having expanded 0.6% in 2019.

January 23, 2020

Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2020

We expect output to grow by 3,1% in 2020, a forecast which is similar to the one we made in October, while in 2021 economic activity would grow by 3,5%. The main drivers will be the normalisation of primary activities (mining) and public spending, to which a stronger private spending will be added next year.
  • Geography Tags
  • Peru

January 23, 2020

Colombia Economic Outlook. First quarter 2020

Colombia meets its potential growth level, driven by an accelerating internal demand.

January 23, 2020

Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2020

Latin America: gradual recovery in 2020-21, but a surge in uncertainty represents a risk

January 22, 2020

Mexico | First half of January inflation forecast: base-effect driven temporary rebound

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.25% HoH in in the first half of January (3.17% YoY), with core coming in at 0.18% HoH (3.70% YoY).

January 21, 2020

Updated Global Outlook | Towards the stabilization of global growth, though risks persist

Recent data have been relatively positive and signal to some stabilization. Lower trade tensions, less uncertainty of a hard Brexit in the short-term, a lax monetary policy and somewhat expansionary fiscal policy should support a slightly higher growth. Global GDP will grow steadily at 3.2% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021.