Inflation latest publications
Baseline assumes growth of 1.8% in 2020, potential upside emerging. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 30% over the next 24-months. Moderate job growth and steady unemployment for foreseeable future. Inflation close to 2%, downside risks fading.
Eurozone growth forecasts are revised slightly upwards due to better incoming data, but we continue to expect some slowdown from 1.2% in 2019 to 0.9% in 2020 before recovering gradually to 1.2% in 2021.
We expect output to grow by 3,1% in 2020, a forecast which is similar to the one we made in October, while in 2021 economic activity would grow by 3,5%. The main drivers will be the normalisation of primary activities (mining) and public spending, to which a stronger private spending will be added next year.
Colombia meets its potential growth level, driven by an accelerating internal demand.
Latin America: gradual recovery in 2020-21, but a surge in uncertainty represents a risk
January 22, 2020
Mexico | First half of January inflation forecast: base-effect driven temporary rebound
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.25% HoH in in the first half of January (3.17% YoY), with core coming in at 0.18% HoH (3.70% YoY).
January 21, 2020
Updated Global Outlook | Towards the stabilization of global growth, though risks persist
Recent data have been relatively positive and signal to some stabilization. Lower trade tensions, less uncertainty of a hard Brexit in the short-term, a lax monetary policy and somewhat expansionary fiscal policy should support a slightly higher growth. Global GDP will grow steadily at 3.2% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021.