inflation expectations latest publications
Inflation in August had a monthly variation of 0.45% and stood at 4.44% in annual terms. Foodstuffs continue to be the protagonists in recent increases, although price increases in other goods and services that are highly dependent on the exchange rate.
Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in July, higher than expectations on the back of upside surprise in food prices resulting in an annual inflation of 18.95% (up from 17.53% the month before). We expect consumer inflation to stay close to 18.5-19% till November and end the year at 16% with the help of positive base effects.
Consumer prices increased by 1.94% in June, remarkably higher than expectations on the back of reopening, resulting in an annual inflation of 17.53% (up from 16.59% the month before). We expect consumer inflation to hover around 18.5% till November and end the year at near 16% with base effects.
In September, the Lima Consumer Price Index rose 0.14% MoM (Bloomberg Consensus: 0.02%; BBVA Research: 0.17%). With this result, inflation in YoY terms increased from 1.7% in August to 1.8% in September.
Consumer prices increased by 0.74% in December, beating the consensus estimate of 0.4%; led the annual CPI to end 2019 at 11.84%. In absence of shocks, Consumer inflation could stay between 11-12% in 1Q20 before experiencing levels close to 10.5% in 2Q20. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020.
Consumer prices increased by 0.38% mom in November, way lower than market consensus and ours (0.75%, Bloomberg vs 0.77%, BBVA). Annual inflation increased to 10.56% from 8.55% in October due to the unfavorable base effect. We expect that annual inflation will increase close to 11.8% at the end of 2019 with downside risk.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 325 bps from 19.75% to 16.50%. The movement was higher than expected (Consensus 275 bps) but the reaction of financial markets to today´s decision was positive as the CBRT justified the movement with a faster than expected disinflation in the statement.
The Central Bank (CBRT) left its policy rate (one-week repo, 24%) unchanged in line with the consensus (vs. our expectation of 100bps hike). The press release after the decision is almost the same with the previous one, except for the stress over the slow-down in economic activity “partly due to tighter financial conditions…