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Banco de la República has reduced its policy rate by one percentage point since November 2023. This brings the rate to 12.25%, still a high level, especially considering that March inflation stood at 7.4% and the most recent activity figures point to a stagnant economy.
Media is a relevant source of information for households to form their inflation expectations. We identified salient products from CPI basket and built a high frequency news based indicator (GDELT) to monitor the volume of news about “salient” goods prices by geography.
We analyze whether China exports inflation to the world and conclude that the answer is not in the short term since the pandemic outbreak but China will contribute to global inflation in the long term.
In May, monthly inflation was 0.84% and annual inflation was 9.07%, close to the expectations of market analysts and BBVA Research (0.80% monthly change).
Inflation in November had a monthly variation of 0.50% and reached 5.26% in annual terms. Food for home consumption was once again a protagonist in the month's result, with a monthly variation of 1.45%.
Inflation in October had a monthly variation of 0.01% and stood at 4.58% YoY. The fall in the price of goods benefiting from the VAT-free day policy offset the price increases observed in the rest of the basket, mainly in food and related items.
Consumer prices increased by 2.39% in October surprisingly lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 19.89% up from 19.58% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to be 19.5% at the end of the year, with risks clearly on the upside.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 1,00% to 1,50% in October. The Bank once again deems convenient to maintain an expansive policy stance for a prolonged period.
Inflation in August had a monthly variation of 0.45% and stood at 4.44% in annual terms. Foodstuffs continue to be the protagonists in recent increases, although price increases in other goods and services that are highly dependent on the excha…
Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in July, higher than expectations on the back of upside surprise in food prices resulting in an annual inflation of 18.95% (up from 17.53% the month before). We expect consumer inflation to stay close to 18.5-1…
Consumer prices increased by 1.94% in June, remarkably higher than expectations on the back of reopening, resulting in an annual inflation of 17.53% (up from 16.59% the month before). We expect consumer inflation to hover around 18.5% till November and end the year at near 16% with base effects.
In September, the Lima Consumer Price Index rose 0.14% MoM (Bloomberg Consensus: 0.02%; BBVA Research: 0.17%). With this result, inflation in YoY terms increased from 1.7% in August to 1.8% in September.
