The eurozone economy has been virtually stagnant for several quarters now, underperforming expectations so far in the year's second half and with no clear signs of recovery on the horizon.
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In 2023, interest rates on debt have reached levels not seen since the financial crisis in the U.S. and the 2011 debt crisis in the eurozone. During the first part of 2023—similar to what occurred in 2022—short-term interest rates led the hikes.
Since mid-July, the euro has depreciated by more than 5% against the dollar, even dropping to USD 1.04 at the beginning of the month. This drop is the result of a combination of circumstances that have had a significant impact on the currency i…
Two weeks ago, the private sector walked away from the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Marrakech less worried than a year earlier, but with three lingering concerns: inflation and interest rates going forward, low global gr…
The current macrofinancial environment in the Latam region has both positive and negative factors affecting banking activity.
The sharp inflationary cycle seen in recent years was a global phenomenon. In most countries, inflation peaks of at least two decades or even four were exceeded by a wide margin, as in the case of the United States. In this context, Latam gave us a lesson in responsibility in terms of monetary policy.
The increase in public debt in 2020 was necessary and good economic policy. From a macroeconomic point of view, the fact that in the following two years 40% of the acquired debt (in terms of GDP) has been reduced is a sign of the soundness of the measure.
The outlook is particularly uncertain, combining slowdown with disinflation, a hangover from two major shocks (COVID-19 and war in Europe) and divergent cyclical trends among the three major global economies.
The crises of the last fifteen years have resulted in a sharp increase in regional debt, which has also conditioned its structure. The FLA provided access to financing at a time when the markets were closed on very favourable terms, and has bec…
Unlike previous moves, which were clearly telegraphed to the markets, this time around there was considerable uncertainty over the ECB’s decision on interest rates: to pause or to hike? Notably, President Christine Lagarde’s press conference fo…
Credit is on the decline for businesses and households alike, as interest rates continue to rise. Perhaps most notably, it is doing so while the recovery continues. The deleveraging of the Spanish economy is not just a recent trend, and is likely down to various structural factors.
At the end of July, the European Banking Authority (EBA) published the results of its stress test on European banks. The aim of these tests is to assess the resilience of the institutions in the event of a severe recession scenario.