Interest rates

Interest rates latest publications

September 12, 2022

Europe | Energy ECB

For the second time in a row, the ECB has struck with aggressive rate hikes, this time by 75 basis points. A magnitude more or less pre-announced in the last few days, when in July the expectation was increasing by 50.

August 23, 2022

China | What do we expect of China’s policy rate in 2022?

The PBoC cut MLF, repo rate and LPR recently to stimulate growth, but it does not indicate China will start a massive easing cycle.

August 8, 2022

Global | Headwinds for the euro

So far this year, the euro has depreciated by more than 10% against the dollar, weakening in mid-July to the level of parity between the two currencies for the first time since 2002.

July 27, 2022

US | The Fed will deliver a second 75 bps hike

The Fed will take the policy rate to its longer-run neutral level. Although the pathway to achieve a soft landing has evolved from “likely” to “plausible”, the tightening cycle still has legs.

July 25, 2022

Europe | ECB in positive

The European Central Bank (ECB) has finally emerged from the extraordinary situation it has been in since 2014 with interest rates in negative territory, after raising all three benchmark rates by 50 basis points, thus leaving the refinancing rate (again the monetary policy benchmark) at 0.50%.

July 25, 2022

Global | A tale of two inflations

Inflation continues to rise on both sides of the Atlantic, albeit at a different pace, reaching around 9% year-on-year in June in both economies. However, economic activity and inflation are being affected by shocks waves that are hitting them unevenly.

July 21, 2022

Europe | ECB: New tool aids bold exit from negative rates as inflation risks intensify

Today decision, this combination of faster rate hikes and a new instrument is most welcome as it signals ECB’s decisive yet prudent approach to monetary policy making in a limiting and highly uncertain environment.

July 20, 2022

Spain | The effects of a new tax on banks

A specific tax on banks leads to an equilibrium with less credit and a higher cost, lower growth in activity and employment, and lower revenues than initially expected.