Publications

The Eurozone and the United States are facing inflationary pressures that extend beyond energy, forcing the ECB and the Fed to raise their inflation forecasts. The central banks are shifting their course with varying degrees of determination.

The Peruvian economy grew 3,5 % in the first quarter, above expectations, backed by private spending. The Middle East conflict, weather anomalies, and the election result will shape its performance going forward. In the baseline scenario, it will grow 3,1 % in 2026 and 3,5 % in 2027, once supply shocks fade away.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

The ECB has been holding its key policy interest rate at 2% for several months, with medium-term inflation forecasts close to its target and a relatively positive assessment of the European economy, which is growing near its potential rate.

After the fastest monetary tightening cycle in decades (2022-2023), the main central banks have begun a process of lowering interest rates, with the “last mile” characterized by a cautious approach.

The ECB's meeting held last Thursday put a lot of focus on issues that have little to do with monetary policy, which is symptomatic of the central bank's comfort with the current level of interest rates.

The ECB kept rates unchanged and, with Lagarde’s slightly hawkish tone, reinforced the view that current levels likely mark the end of the cycle. The new projections point to more balanced risks, supported by the US–EU trade agreement.