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Credit expansion has consolidated several months of timid growth and decreases, explained by supply and demand factors. Strengthening the payment capacity of households and companies, in a scenario of accelerating economic activity, will be key to reactivate the demand for credit.
A third-in-a-row 0.4% MoM core CPI inflation reading for March following strong jobs reports added to a series of hot data that suggest a rate cut soon is off the table amid increased odds for less than three rate cuts this year.
March CPI rose 11.0% m/m and inflation marked the third consecutive monthly deceleration. The exchange rate anchor, the calm of the parallel exchange rates, the fiscal and monetary astringency and the drop in the level of activity are the main …
This first rate cut marks the start of a long and gradual easing cycle that will most likely keep the monetary policy stance restrictive throughout this year and next even if Banxico cuts the policy rate without skipping any meeting in the rema…
The Fed appears to have achieved a better balance of risks around its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. This suggests that it will soon begin to normalize its policy stance, probably in June, although it will proceed cauti…
Banxico’s board had already signaled that a rate cut next week was likely. We think that is a done deal following this month’s inflation prints. We expect Banxico to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, to 11.00%. The focus will be on the signals about the upcoming rate-cut cycle.
The Fed will likely convey that it continues to look for “more good data” before feeling enough confidence to begin cutting rates as the strength of economic activity has extended and shelter inflation has surprised to the upside.
While the labor market is still on track to a better supply-demand balance and wage costs cool down, two consecutive 0.4% MoM core inflation readings will likely continue to push the Fed to convey it needs “more good data” to gain greater confi…
Economic activity will rebound this year as the negative shocks that affected it in 2023 revert and the environment for private sector spending improves. Output is expected to grow 2,7%, higher than our three-months-ago forecast (2,0%), as weat…
This year will go from less to more, but it could trend even more positively if investment gains momentum. This hinges on broader factors like the country's medium-term outlook concerning growth, fiscal matters, regulations, and inflation, amon…
Improved financial conditions for households and businesses, facilitated by anticipated lower interest rates and inflation, will pave the way for a gradual economic recovery in Colombia throughout 2024, solidifying by 2025. We project a 1.5% GDP growth in 2024 and a further expansion of 2.8% in 2025.
Doors seem to have closed to the possibility of a rate cut in March. Fed’s need for “more good data” to achieve “greater confidence” of the ongoing disinflation process has been recently supported by recent strong job creation data and signals of sticky core CPI services inflation.
