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This first rate cut marks the start of a long and gradual easing cycle that will most likely keep the monetary policy stance restrictive throughout this year and next even if Banxico cuts the policy rate without skipping any meeting in the remainder of the year and in 2025.

The Fed appears to have achieved a better balance of risks around its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. This suggests that it will soon begin to normalize its policy stance, probably in June, although it will proceed cautiously even after that.

Banxico’s board had already signaled that a rate cut next week was likely. We think that is a done deal following this month’s inflation prints. We expect Banxico to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, to 11.00%. The focus will be on the signals abo…

The Fed will likely convey that it continues to look for “more good data” before feeling enough confidence to begin cutting rates as the strength of economic activity has extended and shelter inflation has surprised to the upside.

While the labor market is still on track to a better supply-demand balance and wage costs cool down, two consecutive 0.4% MoM core inflation readings will likely continue to push the Fed to convey it needs “more good data” to gain greater confi…

Economic activity will rebound this year as the negative shocks that affected it in 2023 revert and the environment for private sector spending improves. Output is expected to grow 2,7%, higher than our three-months-ago forecast (2,0%), as weather anomalies related to the coastal El Niño phenomenon have been less intense.

This year will go from less to more, but it could trend even more positively if investment gains momentum. This hinges on broader factors like the country's medium-term outlook concerning growth, fiscal matters, regulations, and inflation, among others.

Improved financial conditions for households and businesses, facilitated by anticipated lower interest rates and inflation, will pave the way for a gradual economic recovery in Colombia throughout 2024, solidifying by 2025. We project a 1.5% GD…

Doors seem to have closed to the possibility of a rate cut in March. Fed’s need for “more good data” to achieve “greater confidence” of the ongoing disinflation process has been recently supported by recent strong job creation data and signals …

When the central bank initiates a rate reduction cycle, all eyes are focused on commercial banks and how market rates adjust. So far, market rates have fallen significantly more than those of the BanRep.

A key change in the forward guidance signals that Banxico is getting ready to start a rate cut cycle as “in the next monetary policy meetings, it will assess, depending on available information, the possibility of adjusting the reference rate.”

In the first inflation report of the year, the Central Bank (CBRT) maintained their interim inflation targets (36% by end 2024 and 14% by end 2025). We expect the policy rate at 45% throughout the year although the possibility of a rate hike above 45% remains.