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The futures market is almost fully pricing in that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps this year (95% implied chances) and continue to anticipate roughly 100 bps worth of rate cuts next year. Markets are certain of a rate cut in September, but are also likely pricing in risks in the event of a Trump’s second term.
The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits accelerated from 0.3% to 0.45% due to consumer credits of public and private banks. Total credits’ 4 week average trend fell however to 0.3% due to lagged impact of Bayram holidays’ week.
Board members voted 4-1 to hold rates steady at 11.00%. The fact that the decision wasn’t unanimous came as a bit of surprise considering the recent peso weakening and that Banxico was set to revise up its short-term headline inflation forecast…
Mid- and long-term Treasury yields eased further from their late-April’s highs on a less hawkish than expected Fed in this month’s meeting, and fresh signs that the inflation jump in 1Q will prove transitory.
Banxico will most likely suggest it will proceed with caution, at least until more information is available about the judicial reform and the type of fiscal adjustment that will be implemented next year to fulfill the federal government’s commi…
Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, enabling the Central Bank to expedite rate cuts from the end of the year.
With the fed funds rate at its peak, growing chances of disinflation resuming in 2Q24 and more balanced risks, the Fed is likely to remain cautious in determining the timing of a first rate cut.
Intermeeting developments will likely not change the already-conveyed Fed message that more good data is needed to gain enough confidence in progress toward 2% inflation; the debate around the policy stance will continue to focus on for how lon…
Policy rate expectations and Treasury yields eased from their late-April’s highs on softer employment and inflation data released recently.
While members continued to state that “the disinflation process is expected to continue,” the stickiness of core services inflation drove Banxico to revise up its inflation forecasts after considering that “inflationary shocks are foreseen to t…
The favorable core inflation trend gives Banxico room to continue lowering the policy rate, which will remain tight during 2024-25 despite a gradual rate cut cycle, but we now expect Banxico to pause the rate cut cycle this week and take rates down to 9.75% by year end.
In a context of a strong economy and a lack of further progress on inflation in recent months, the Fed unequivocally signaled that it can be patient and will give the restrictive monetary policy stance more time to do its job before deciding to cut rates.
