Interest rates latest publications
Repo Rates: Rates trended higher but pressures receded after increased intervention. Fed Open Market Operations: Average daily intervention jumped to $81bn during the week; Repo operations will continue at least through January.
Repo Market: No major spikes in rates. Average daily intervention since 9/17 jumps to $65bn; Fed commits to overnight repo operations at least through January 2020; Several FOMC members suggest introducing standing repo facility.
Repo Rates: Rates continue to stabilize. Fed Open Market Operations: Average daily intervention softened to $47bn this week from $86bn prior. Fed Balance Sheet: Total assets up $185bn since 8/28; Reserves up $101bn since start of turmoil.
There is still plenty of room to cut rates; we expect at least 50bp of additional easing by year-end.
September 25, 2019
Banxico will cut 25bp their rate on Thursday and on each of the remaining meetings in 2019
Given softer inflation and easing inflation risks an easing cycle has further to run.
Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks tilted to downside. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 75% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Downside risks to inflation moderating.
August 12, 2019
Rate cut is not off the table, but we expect Banxico to hold rates steady one more meeting
Banxico will likely strike a dovish tone to signal that an easing cycle is about to start.