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September 26, 2024

US | Limited room for long-term yields to fall further if a soft landing remains in sight

Long-term yields have ceased from being driven by changes in inflation compensation, but they could decline markedly if markets begin to price in that the Fed will need to lower rates below neutral to avoid a recession.

September 24, 2024

Mexico | A 50bp cut from Banxico would be welcome, but a smaller 25bp move is more likely

In view of the lags of monetary policy, we think that Banxico is already late in adjusting the excessively high real ex-ante rate, and thus, the monetary policy stance is set to continue to weigh on the economy in the coming quarters.

September 11, 2024

Big Data techniques used

Argentina | Forecasting short-term inflation with Random Forest Models

This paper examines the performance of Random Forest models in forecasting short-term monthly inflation in Argentina, based on a database of monthly indicators since 1962.

August 22, 2024

US | The Treasury market prices in the Fed is likely behind the curve

July’s meeting minutes confirmed a Fed’s dovish shift, with "a vast majority" of FOMC officials observing that "it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting."

August 1, 2024

US | A rate cut “could be on the table” at the September meeting

The Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging that risks are broadly balanced: it is now “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than “highly attentive to inflation risks.”