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Industrial Production (IP) grew parallel to expectations by 8.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (8.8% yoy in raw series) in September. We expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9.5% with risks on the upside considering the expansionary bias of the economy policies.
Industrial Production (IP) increased by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, parallel to the market expectation of 5.5% in November. Thus, IP grew by 4.5% yoy in October-November period. We expect GDP growth in 4Q19 at around 5%, implying 0.8% growth in 2019. Our baseline forecast for 2020 GDP growth remains at 4%.
IP contracted by 2.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in March (-4.4% Consensus & -4.6% BBVA Research). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly contraction of 1.7% in March (96% info) and 1.6% in April (47% info). A prudent policy mix remain…
IP fell by 6.5% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in November, disappointing the expectations (BBVA: -5.8%, Consensus: -5.4%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a contraction of 1.6% yoy growth in December (with 32% info), which is still consiste…
The sharp decline in the unadjusted IP (-11%) in August, which is in line with our expectations (BBVA -11.5%), also implies a yearly contraction in industrial production in 3Q18 which will weigh on GDP growth. With 40% of information, our month…
The current strength of the world economy is recently being exposed to divergent forces that have intensified global risks. Fiscal stimulus approved in the US will likely spur growth in other areas, but protectionism poses a risk. In this context we maintain our forecasts for global growth unchanged at 3.8% for the period 2…
