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Despite rising uncertainty and early signs of cooling, the U.S. labor market remains broadly balanced, driven by services, stable participation, and moderated wage growth. However, risks from policy shifts and slower job openings are building.

Formal employment in Mexico shows clear signs of deceleration, reflecting an adverse economic environment marked by domestic and global uncertainties. Although real wages have remained somewhat resilient, job creation faces significant pressures that negatively impact the total wage bill.

Formal employment began 2025 with a 0.8% increase, adding 73 thousand new positions—87.1% of which were temporary—reflecting the trend observed since last year. Despite the slowdown in job creation, real wages continue to grow above the average, supporting consumption.

Formal employment closed the year with an annual variation of 1.0%, well below expectations and the average of the last three years. Sectors such as manufacturing and construction performed poorly or negatively, playing key roles in this sharp slowdown.

The national unemployment rate for October stood at 9.1%, similar to the 9.2% recorded a year ago, and seasonally adjusted figures show it was similar to September of this year. In October, national employment levels remained stable compared to September (seasonally adjusted).

The weakness in employment, observed since the beginning of the year, has intensified more than expected due to factors such as the closure of federal infrastructure projects and political and economic uncertainty. In October, formal employment grew by 1.4%, falling 0.3 percentage points short of expectations.

The national unemployment rate was 9.7% in August, up from 9.3% in August 2023. Seasonally adjusted, the August unemployment rate was 10.0%, unchanged from July this year, and below its average level for the first half of the year, which was 10.6%.

Employment continues to slow down, with minimal monthly increases. According to the IMSS, formal employment grew by 1.8% annually in August, 0.2 points less than in June and July. Seasonally adjusted job creation has shown three months of 0.1% variations, reflecting weakness in annual variations.