Publications

Despite their popularity, the theoretical properties of panel local projections remain only partially understood. Recent work has shown that conventional fixed-effects estimators suffer from an incidental parameter bias. This paper proposes a new unbiased estimator based on pooled OLS and long-differences.

This paper introduces a novel measure of Structural Geopolitical Risk (SGR), designed to capture the long-run conditions that shape the likelihood of geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and fragmentation.

We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency. To do this, we build daily consumption and investment aggregates using bank transaction records and leverage administrative data for measures of daily gross output and employment for Spain.

This paper delivers the first comprehensive estimate of the dynamic fiscal multiplier of defence spending for the EU-27 by exploiting exogenous accrual-based government defence outlays and a combination of linear and non-linear Local Projection methods.

This Working Paper examines the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency. To do this, daily consumption and investment aggregates are constructed using bank transaction records and administrative data to measure daily gross output and employment in Spain.