Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on macroeconomics

Mexico | GDP falls 0.3% QoQ in 3Q25: weakness in industry and services

October 30, 2025

Economic activity declined (-)0.3% QoQ in 3Q25, reflecting the contraction in the industrial sector (-1.5% QoQ) and the modest growth in services (0.1% QoQ); considering the 3Q25 figure, GDP increased 0.5% as of September.

Mexico | Private spending slows in September as confidence declines

October 16, 2025

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)0.3% month-on-month (MoM) decline in September, reflecting contractions in both goods and services segments.

Mexico Economic Outlook. September 2025

September 24, 2025

Domestic demand continues to slow; private consumption fell (-)0.1% as of June (YoY, cum.), while investment contracted (-)6.4%. We revise our 2025 growth forecast upward to 0.7%, supported by the favorable performance of the economy in 1H25, although expectations point to a slowdown in the second half of the year.

Türkiye Economic Outlook. September 2025

September 24, 2025

Our baseline scenario assumes the continuation of the restrictive policies prioritizing disinflation in the short term. Global financial volatility affecting demand for EM assets, Trump policies particularly impacting Europe, and increasing domestic unknowns are near term risks on the Turkish economy, keeping us cautious.

Mexico | Manufacturing production deteriorates, with a decline in the automotive sector

September 17, 2025

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (BBVA Research MMI) fell (-)3.0% YoY in August, the largest contraction since January.

Mexico | Back-to-school season temporarily boosts private consumption

September 12, 2025

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a 2.5% MoM increase in August, temporarily driven by the back-to-school season (goods consumption grew 4.4%, and spending on services rose 1.6%).

Spain | Extremadura Economic Outlook 2025

September 10, 2025

In 2024, Extremadura's GDP could have grown by 2.9%, and it is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Looking ahead, economic activity will be marked by high uncertainty surrounding economic and trade policy and the slow recovery in Europe.

Mexico | Mixed Performance in Manufacturing during July

August 19, 2025

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 1.2% YoY in July, 0.9 pp above the figure registered the previous month (0.3% YoY); considering the July data, the year-over-year variation of the BBVA Research MMI reaches an average of (-)0.2% in the first seven months of the year (vs -1.5% in 2024).

Mexico | Consumption Extends Slowdown into the Second Half of the Year

August 13, 2025

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)1.3% MoM drop in July, due to the slowdown in the goods segment (-2.3% MoM) and the stagnation of the services component (0.1% MoM).

Mexico | Resilience of GDP in a Context of Uncertainty: Grew 0.7% QoQ in 2Q25

July 31, 2025

Economic activity increased by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in 2Q25 (BBVA: 0.6%, consensus: 0.4%), driven by the industrial sector (0.8%) and the tertiary sector (0.7%).

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