macroeconomics latest publications

September 5, 2022

Türkiye | August CPI surprised to the downside

Consumer prices rose by 1.46% in August, once again below both market consensus and our expectation (2%), which led to an annual inflation of 80.2%. We forecast consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year and 33% at the end of 2023, with risks remaining on the upside.

August 31, 2022

Türkiye | GDP grew by 7.5% in 1H22

Turkish economy grew by 7.6% y/y in 2Q22, resulted in 7.5% y/y GDP growth in the first half of 2022. We keep our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5%, on the grounds of the recent high realization in the first half and authorities’ bias to maintain loose policies.

August 3, 2022

Türkiye | July CPI lower than expected

Consumer prices rose by 2.37% in July, once again below market consensus (2.6%) and our expectation (4%), which led to an annual inflation of 79.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months before slowing down to near 70% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.

July 14, 2022

Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2022

BBVA Research estimate a Colombian economy grow stood at 6.8% YoY this year. In 2023, especially due to a moderation in private consumption, the economy will decelerate healthily to 2.0%. Inflation will close this year at 9.2% and fall to 5.0% by the end of 2023, thanks to the restrictive tone of monetary policy.

July 4, 2022

Spain | Mixed labor market signals in June, which do not mist the balance of the 2Q22

Enrollment increased (115,600 persons) and registered unemployment decreased (-42,400) in June. Seasonally adjusted, the increase in employment (70,000) was confirmed, but unemployment stagnated. In 2Q22, enrollment grew (1.3% quarter-on-quarter QEQ) and temporary employment fell (60%) and unemployment (-4.0%).

June 21, 2022

Spain | More permanent contracts in May, and fewer indefinite duration temporary contracts

The May 2022 contract statistics confirmed the upturn in permanent contracts, especially among younger people, and the fall in the number of temporary contracts, focused on those of indefinite duration.

June 2, 2022

Mexico | Consumption fell (-)1.5% in May with decline of the tourism sector

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (ICBD BBVA Research) slows down amid the fall in the tourism sector after the high dynamism registered in April triggered by the Easter holiday period.

May 25, 2022

Spain | Catalonia Economic Outlook. First half 2022

Catalonia's GDP grew by 5.2% in 2021. The sanctions imposed on Russia and the increase in fuel prices reduce growth expectations. Still, Catalan GDP could increase by 4.2% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, placing Catalonia among the most dynamic regions in the biennium.