Publications

Private consumption in Mexico fell 0.2% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year contraction of 4.9%. The effect of the World Cup was limited and heterogeneous, not generating a widespread rebound. Spending on tourism services contracted, while entertainment spending grew. Atony is expected to persist.

After stagnant GDP growth in 1Q26, economic activity remains weak in 2Q26, partly reflecting the impact of the war. We forecast GDP growth of 3.0% in 2026, but uncertainty surrounding the peace process and the commitment of the current policy mix to disinflation continues to cloud the outlook.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (BDCI) increased 0.4% MoM in May (real), marking its first positive monthly reading since October.

The Spanish economy will maintain growth of above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by consumption, services and construction, although the deterioration in the international environment is widening regional differences.

El Niño is a recurring Pacific Ocean warming event that affects Latin American countries in very different ways. Its economic impact depends on each country's exposure and vulnerability, influencing growth, inflation, agriculture and infrastructure through diverse climate transmission channels.

The IMM BBVA Research grew 2.9% YoY in April, remaining in positive territory for the eighth consecutive month; considering the April figure, the IMM BBVA Research’s average year-to-date growth rate stands at 2.5%.

Catalonia is set to maintain solid growth in 2026 despite geopolitical and trade headwinds, supported by consumption, employment, and tourism.