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The BBVA Consumer Index grew 2.0% MoM (sa) in September, after the fall of (-)1.9% in August, in an atypical month with greater mobility and an increase in spending derived from the return to face-to-face teaching at schools.
The improvement in health indicators and the relaxation of restrictions have reduced uncertainty and allowed a recovery in private spending and national tourism. The foregoing translates into generalized upward revisions in all regions in 2021, although with a different magnitude.
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- Regional Analysis Spain
According to preliminary data from INEGI, economic activity grew 1.5% QoQ in 2Q21, which represents a downward bias on our growth forecast for this year (current 6.3%)
In January, mobility restrictions temporarily interrupted the employment recovery. As of January, 73% of the jobs lost at the time of the worst deterioration of the labor market had been recovered. Given the easing of restrictive mobility measures, the labor market is expected to return to dynamism from February of 2021.
GDP declined 6.8% in 2020. In the major demand groups, only government consumption grew and, in the productive branches, four out of twelve expanded. The economy had a sustained recovery since the third quarter that will be consolidated in the second half of 2021. GDP growth of 4.8% is expected in 2021.
The rebound in the economy and employment will continue to show different nuances and heterogeneity among sectors and regions, it is expected that in the face of restrictions, social distancing, and economic closures, now partial, the negative impact on employment will continue.
The world is still in a mobility restrictive mode, so it may not reach the previous levels until the arrival of treatment. Hence, a selection of strategic sectors to promote recovery and increase spending and job creation, based on three pillars, is proposed.
Strong impact of the Hot Sale in the last week of July, especially in "non-essential" items. Fuel and Construction sales showed slight signs of an incipient recovery that needs more data to start setting a trend. The lockdown period has started to set new behaviors.