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While manufacturing gained momentum in the middle of last year as bottlenecks abated, the sector has lost momentum in recent months as demand slows amid higher interest rates.

The BBVA Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator grew 4.2% in November (YoY), 4.2 pp below the previous month; the figure represents the lowest since March 2022 and marks a turning point after the recovery period that the sector showed in the first three quarters of the year.

At its December meeting, Banco de la República increased the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 12.0%. Although the vote was mostly for a 100bp increase, there was one vote for a 125bp increase and another for a 25bp incr…

Industrial production (IP) surprised to the upside and grew 2.5% y/y in October (vs. 0.1% expected). Though, weaker activity in 4Q so far puts slight downward risk on our 2022 GDP forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 3% GDP growth in 2023 with expecte…

Turkish economy grew 3.9% y/y in 3Q22 (vs. 4% expected and 4.4% market consensus). We nowcast an annual GDP growth rate of 2.8% as of November, which puts a slight downside risk on our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 2023 GDP grow…

The BBVA Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (BBVA MMI) grew 8.7% in October (YoY), 0.6 pp above the previous month (8.1%).

Industrial production (IP) once again surprised to the downside and grew 0.4% y/y in September (vs. 3% expected), implying a very sharp deceleration with 2.5% y/y in 3Q (vs. 10.7% in 2Q). We forecast 5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and 3% in 2023 with the help of potential boost before the elections.

Economic activity grew 1.0% QoQ in 3Q22, with prolonged dynamism in the tertiary sector (1.2%) and industry (0.9%); cloudy outlook for 2023 (BBVA 0.6%).

The BBVA Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (BBVA MMI) grew 8.1% in September (YoY), 1.2 pp above the figure last month.

Presentation for the Conference on Non-traditional Data, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics hosted by Sveriges Riksbank and jointly organized with the Federal Reserve Board, the Bank of Italy, and the Bank of Can…

Consumer prices rose by 3.08% in September, below both market consensus (3.15%) and our expectation (3.7%), which led to an annual inflation of 83.5%. We expect consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year as base effects would start a disinflation path.

Consumer prices rose by 1.46% in August, once again below both market consensus and our expectation (2%), which led to an annual inflation of 80.2%. We forecast consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year and 33% at the end of 2023, with risks remaining on the upside.