Publications

After stagnant GDP growth in 1Q26, economic activity remains weak in 2Q26, partly reflecting the impact of the war. We forecast GDP growth of 3.0% in 2026, but uncertainty surrounding the peace process and the commitment of the current policy mix to disinflation continues to cloud the outlook.

The BBVA Research Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator grew 2.3% YoY in May, reaching an average annual growth rate of 2.4% during the first five months of the year, 4.4 percentage points above the figure recorded in the same period of 2025.

The Spanish economy will maintain growth of above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by consumption, services and construction, although the deterioration in the international environment is widening regional differences.

We expect the disinflation process to remain broadly on track against a softer growth backdrop in the short term. Persistent inflationary pressures and external uncertainties warrant a more cautious policy outlook, while selective easing is likely to continue within an overall restrictive policy mix.

The IMM BBVA Research grew 2.9% YoY in April, remaining in positive territory for the eighth consecutive month; considering the April figure, the IMM BBVA Research’s average year-to-date growth rate stands at 2.5%.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a 0.4% MoM drop (real, sa) in April, its fourth consecutive decline so far this year, recording an average YoY variation of -2.7% for the January-April 2026 period.

The BBVA Research Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator grew 2.2% YoY in March, remaining in positive territory for the seventh consecutive month, although deepening the slowdown observed since the beginning of the year.