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April 22, 2025
China’s banks face headwinds in 2025 amid weak credit growth, low profitability, and property sector stress. Narrowing interest margins and declining lending rates have pushed ROA and ROE to record lows. Real estate woes, LGFV debt, and US tariffs weigh heavily on the sector, while links to shadow banking grown modestly.
April 21, 2025
The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported 1.7% growth in March (MoM), following the zero growth recorded the previous month. By component, both spending on goods and services registered positive variations (goods 1.5%, services 2.4%).
April 3, 2025
On April 2, 2025, the White House issued an executive order introducing reciprocal tariffs aimed at regulating U.S. trade and reducing the trade deficit. A baseline 10% tariff will take effect on April 5, while country-specific reciprocal tariffs will be implemented starting April 9.
March 26, 2025
In 2024, the Balearic Islands' GDP could have grown by 3.5%, and is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. This strength is explained by foreign tourism, which remains strong but is approaching the limits of its capacity, and by domestic demand in which consumption is beginning to gain prominence.
March 20, 2025
The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported zero growth (0.0% MoM) in February; year-on-year (YoY) spending on point-of-sale terminals grew 11.1%, bringing the average for the first two months of the year to 13.0% (vs. 9.9% on average for 2024).
March 19, 2025
Tourism and consumption continue to drive growth toward the Mediterranean and the islands in 2025, but the prospect of a slowdown persists toward 2026 in a context of high uncertainty that delays the acceleration of export-producing regions.
March 17, 2025
GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, following three years of around 3% growth. The slowdown will be driven by tighter monetary conditions, a weaker fiscal impulse, and a less favorable global context, though the primary sector and labor market resilience will provide support.
March 4, 2025
We estimate the EUR/USD equilibrium exchange rate using a holistic approach that distinguishes between the strengths of the euro and the dollar. Our analysis shows that the current misalignment is due to an overvalued dollar, while the euro remains close to equilibrium, with its role as a reserve currency slightly reduced.
