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The digitization of the economy is an essential ingredient for sustainable growth and social welfare. A good digital transformation plan requires a diagnosis of the starting point. The Digitalization Index (DiGiX) is a tool that allows such a diagnosis for the Spanish regions.
Andalusia's GDP may have fallen by 11.0% in 2020 and is expected to increase by 5.4% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022. Consumption, investment and exports will boost the economy throughout 2021. With risks, the momentum of European funds will be more noticeable towards 2022.
The pandemic has led to several historical comparisons, such as the 1918 influenza and the Roaring Twenties that followed. Another clear comparison is the massive Next Generation EU (NGEU) fiscal stimulus set to be launched in Europe, which resembles the Marshall Plan passed following World War II, but for the modern age.
Using simple calculations based on the figures published in the 2021–2024 Updated Stability Program (SP), it is clear that, with the assumptions contained in the SP, we will need a very ambitious roadmap to change certain long-term trends in public accounts.
The public deficit forecasts contained in the 2021–2024 Updated Stability Program provided by the Spanish government to the European Commission have recently been disclosed. For 2021, the collective target deficit for the Public Administrations is 8.4% of GDP, which will progressively decrease to reach 3.2% in 2024.
Although historical evidence tells us that the increase in fuel prices observed over the last few months could considerably slow down recovery (by around one percentage point according to BBVA Research), there is reason to think that this time could be different.
The closing data published by the INE last month confirmed that the Spanish economy experienced a contraction in 2020 like no other experienced in peacetime, with a drop of 10.8%. But this review paints a somewhat different picture, showing that there has been a differential effect for the different autonomous communities.
The economy in Aragon suffered a historic contraction in 2020, albeit a smaller one in absolute terms than in Spain as a whole. BBVA Research estimates that its GDP fell by around 9.5% last year, compared to a decline of 10.8% for the country overall.