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The oil market remains at the center of the global spotlight. This has been the case for some months now due to the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas, a confrontation reminiscent of the most difficult moments of the oil market in the 1970s.
In 2023, the price of Brent crude averaged USD 82.5, falling from over USD 100 in 2022, driven by the war between Russia and Ukraine, although its trend over the past year has been somewhat erratic and dominated by a wide array of events.
According to our analysis, global demographic trends and, more specifically, the ongoing process of population aging are contributing to current inflationary pressures.
Having passed the halfway point of the year, it is important to reflect on the behavior of the oil market, and to take note of the lessons learned for the second half of 2023.
In 1Q23, Spain recovered the GDP level of 4Q19, just before the COVID-19 crisis. The reasons for taking longer to do so than most European Union (EU27) countries are several, but an important one in terms of its implications is the slow recover…
Inflation was bound to fall. As we look ahead, one of the main risks to economic activity in Spain may be that monetary policy will be too restrictive as inflation relents.
The country's fixed capital accumulation is 5% below pre-pandemic levels, but the aggregate masks higher lags in some components.
The end of the pandemic also marked the end of more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, fueled by ample liquidity from central banks.
In 2022, Spanish GDP growth again outstripped the eurozone average. Moreover, import prices rose further, enabling the country to maintain its current account surplus and therefore reduce its reliance on external funding.
Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, over the past year, the perception that an economic recession was inevitable in the short term has built up. However, the signs of a recession are now few and far between.
We will see a very tight market throughout 2023, despite what is likely to be a significant economic slowdown due to various shocks, following the trend seen in recent years.
The energy price situation has turned out better than expected, after it became clear that there would be no gas shortage this winter, partly due to the moderate temperatures. Even so, the natural gas market will remain under strain at least through 2024.
