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We expect headline inflation to increase 0.58% MoM in May, thereby accelerating to 3.04% YoY from 2.15% in April. We anticipate a 0.36% MoM core inflation increase (3.71% YoY, up from 3.50% in April).
May 20, 2020
Mexico | YoY headline inflation volatility kicks in driven by the rebound in energy prices
We expect headline inflation to post a 0.00% HoH change in the first half of May, thereby increasing to 2.5% YoY from 2.2% in the second half of April. We anticipate a 0.09% HoH core inflation increase (3.60% YoY, unchanged from 3.61% in the previous fortnight).
In April, consumer prices declined 0.8% over-the-month, in the first signs of a major downdraft in inflation. Today’s numbers were significantly below expectations and marked the lowest monthly decline since December 2008.
We expect headline inflation to post a mild 0.07% MoM increase in March (3.37% YoY, down from 3.70% in February), with core increasing 0.27% MoM (3.58% YoY, down from 3.66%).
February 6, 2020
Mexico |Jan.inflation forecast: base-effect driven temporary rebound will continue in Feb.
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.45% MoM in January (3.20% YoY), with core coming in at 0.33% MoM (3.73% YoY).
January 22, 2020
Mexico | First half of January inflation forecast: base-effect driven temporary rebound
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.25% HoH in in the first half of January (3.17% YoY), with core coming in at 0.18% HoH (3.70% YoY).
We expect headline inflation to increase 0.79% MoM in November (2.96% YoY), with core coming in at 0.22% MoM (3.65% YoY).