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One of the non-forward-looking tools used for inflation analysis by central banks and academia in general is core inflation, but it may include distortions that lead to misleading conclusions. This paper explores trimmed means as an alternative.
One of the best surprises of 2022 has been the recovery by tourism. However, there are reasonable doubts regarding the industry's future outlook. A downturn could have major implications for the economy.
Monthly inflation in November rose to 0.77% and annual inflation to 12.53%, up 31 bps from October's annual figure. The results were again above the median of market analysts' expectations of 12.27% and what we expected at BBVA Research (12.42%…
Monthly inflation in October was 0.72% and annual inflation was 12.22%, close to market analysts' expectations of 0.62%, according to Banco de la República's survey, and BBVA Research's of 0.64%. The data increased 78 bps from September's annu…
In August, monthly inflation was 1.02% and annual inflation 10.84%, above the average expectation of market analysts (0.54% in monthly variation according to the monthly survey of Banco de la República) and even above their maximum forecast of…
This Working Paper briefly describes the latest update of the sectoral module of the RegData FEDEA-BBVA, with the main Regional Accounts Indicators.
La inflación anual al consumidor ha alcanzado su nivel más alto en los últimos 22 años. Esperamos cerrar este año en 9,2 % con una moderación para 2023 y que se consolidará en 2024, explicada por dos factores principales: el efecto base y la moderación de la demanda y de las presiones de costos.
In June, monthly inflation was 0.51% and 9.67% year-on-year, in line with market analysts' and BBVA Research's expectations. Core inflation (excluding food) stood at 6.84% in annual change, accelerating 34 bps from the previous month's result.
In May, monthly inflation was 0.84% and annual inflation was 9.07%, close to the expectations of market analysts and BBVA Research (0.80% monthly change).
Inflation in April was 1.25% on a monthly basis and 9.23% on an annual basis, making it the highest in the last two decades. Market analysts were surprised by the result, which was not only above the estimated average, but also above the maximu…
Inflation in Mexico during the first half of April reached a level of 7.7% while core inflation also registered a very high 7.2%. Both figures are the highest since January 2001.
March monthly inflation was 1.0%, more than double its historical average (0.41% average between 2011-2019) and annual inflation was 8.53%, placing it above analysts' expectations (0.90% monthly according to the BanRep survey) and BBVA Research's projection (0.84%).
