Publications

Spain's problem is not a shortage of savings, but insufficient investment. The challenge is to channel these savings, both domestic and European, into productive projects capable of generating a return, while creating quality employment and societal growth.

GDP is projected to grow by around 2.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, maintaining a pace close to the medium-term trend despite a slowdown. This deceleration will be largely driven by shifts in U.S. trade policy and the heightened uncertainty they have triggered.

Structural analysis of financial inclusion and productivity, presented at the launch of the 2024 Financial Inclusion Report (RIF) by Banca de las Oportunidades and Superfinanciera. Despite near-universal deposit access and increased credit, pending tasks remain to boost productivity, growth, and well-being.

Economic growth in Spain has been based on extensive factors (which may be temporary): incorporating more people into the labor market has been decisive. In contrast, productivity (the intensive and unlimited factor of growth) has yet to take off.

Spain has led EU growth since the start of the war in Ukraine. However, weak growth in Europe, persistent geopolitical tensions, and erratic U.S. trade policy overshadow the outlook.

The latest Social Security enrollment figures for March come as welcome news for the Spanish economy, yet they are also a timely reminder that job creation alone is not enough in itself: we also need it to be more productive.

Productivity per hour worked has returned to the growth path experienced in the 2014–2018 period. Following a worrying stagnation during the two years leading up to the pandemic, this indicator got back to an annual growth rate of 1.1% between 2022 and 2024, while the same indicator stagnated in the wider EMU.

So far, the impact of the Next Generation EU funds on investment and productivity has been less than expected. However, with a broad consensus and structural reforms, Spain should be able to realize its potential and consolidate more solid, sustainable, and productive growth.