Publications

Battles are raging across Gaza, with Israel indicating readiness to fight for months or longer to defeat Hamas. Intense fighting is concentrated in southern Gaza; Netanyahu seeks lasting control over Gaza even after the war ends. Concerns mount over the remaining 137 hostages' fate amid a worsening humanitarian crisis.

The end of the extended truce of the Hamas-Israel conflict has resulted in a rapid intensification of the conflict. This is reflected in conflict and Geopolitical indicators, which remain mostly high or extreme, while Political tensions, Protest and Economic Policy Uncertainty are overall neutral or low.

Israeli forces continue ground operations in northern Gaza, searching a hospital for alleged Hamas militants. Talks of a potential exchange of 50 hostages for a 3-day ceasefire to aid Gaza civilians are ongoing, but remain fragile. Meanwhile, the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship by Yemen’s Houthi rebels adds complexity.

Israe's Gaza offensive persists with over 11,000 deaths since October, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. Humanitarian pauses, led by Qatar and Egypt, facilitated hostage talks. The Western response remains varied amid the complex international dynamics.

Following Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement to initiate the second phase of the Israeli operation in Gaza, Big Data geopolitical indicators continue to show very high tensions in the Middle East. However, some have moderated outside of that region.

Following the Hamas-Israel attack, BBVA's Geopolitical Sentiment indexes deteriorated, impacting the Middle East as well as the West. As tension rises, the protest index for the Middle East and Europe show higher levels, while the Economic Political Uncertainty index remains neutral.

A wave of protests has shaken Latin America in recent months. The increase in social unrest has led to mass protests in countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia. There are also worries that this could spread to other parts of the region.

Geopolitical tensions between Iran and US are in the spotlight after President Trump pulled out from Iran nuclear deal. North and South Korea set the geopolitical course towards peace and denuclearization. Several electoral processes are open in Middle East and Latin America, which could increase short-term political uncertainties and social noise in the coming months.