Publications

The ECB's rate hikes are increasing financing costs in Spain, raising mortgage and other loan rates. However, the economy shows greater resilience than in the past due to lower private sector debt and larger weight of fixed interest rate loans.

Brazil’s economy is slowing: growth is expected to reach 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Supply-side pressures will push inflation higher, but weak demand will likely allow for further Selic rate cuts. The post-election political landscape will shape the outlook and the balance of risks.

The Spanish economy is growing above the Eurozone average, driven by domestic demand and employment. However, it faces crucial challenges such as stagnant productivity and weak investment, which limit the increase in added value and long-term well-being.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 51.0% in June 2026. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.

The Spanish economy shows resilience with a projected growth of 2.5% in 2026, but faces structural challenges in productivity and per capita income. The European Commission's recommendations focus on the sustainability of public finances, improving productivity, and innovation.

Discretionary measures linked to geopolitical tensions and severe storms raise the deficit to 2.8% of GDP in 2026. Their withdrawal should reduce it to 2.5% in 2027, but structural expenditure pressures will continue to constrain long-term fiscal consolidation.

This study analyses the evolution of revenues, expenditures, budget balance, and debt of Spain’s autonomous communities from 2003 to 2025. It adjusts for the impact of atypical factors such as the pandemic in order to show the underlying deficit and the true financial situation.