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A fiscal consolidation that would imply a public deficit of 3.0% of GDP (-3.5% of PSBR) is expected for next year, which would occur with a primary surplus and financial cost of 0.4% and 3.4% of GDP, respectively.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 47.2% of GDP at the end of the first semester. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.

The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will…

Spain has managed to stay out of the Excessive Deficit Procedure and has no significant economic imbalances, according to the recent European Semester assessment. However, the Commission still identifies important challenges regarding fiscal co…

Tax revenue was MXN 8,922 million (0.03% of GDP) below budget since the excise taxes on fuels intake was below budget despite its real annual increment of 195.1% in 1Q24.

Spain has committed to undertake a huge fiscal adjustment over the next few years. While the impact on the economy will depend on its composition, evidence suggests that it may be significant. Even if this is not the case, it will create social tension.

Public revenue in 2023 was MXN 84,326 million (0.27% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.

2023 deficit estimate remains at around 4,1% of GDP. In 2024 with the prolongation of the Central Government Budget and part of the anti-crisis measures, the deficit would be reduced to 3.7% of GDP. This scenario points to a smooth downward pat…

The FLA allowed regional governments access to financing on favourable terms. However, its costs should lead to changes in its design and implementation. Governments that have not accessed the FLA have helped reduce the risk premium, are financ…

Public revenue in the first semester was MXN 157,650 million (0.5% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.

The COVID-19 crisis and the aftermath of the war in Ukraine have left a legacy of ballooning public debt levels and structural fiscal deficits higher than those existing in 2019 in many EU countries. Reducing them to avoid greater evils will be a crucial and ambitious task in the coming years.

The increase in public debt in 2020 was necessary and good economic policy. From a macroeconomic point of view, the fact that in the following two years 40% of the acquired debt (in terms of GDP) has been reduced is a sign of the soundness of the measure.