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The public deficit appears to be inconsistent with the cyclical position of the Spanish economy. It is contributing to inflation remaining high, in an environment where the unemployment rate is at a 15-year low.
Given that rainy funds have already been exhausted by the current government and the pressure from some items of public spending will continue, the next government will not have enough fiscal space to avoid creating and/or raising taxes.
The latest budget execution data confirm that during the latter part of 2022 the path of adjustment slowed down and the estimate of 3.9% of GDP for the public deficit in 2022 and 2023 is maintained. In a no-policy-change scenario, the cycle wil…
The Latin American economy faces crosswinds in a scenario of disequilibrium, in line with international dynamics, where the main economic variables are still adjusting after the disruptive events of the most recent years.
For the stability of the broadest public debt (% of GDP) indicator in the following years, the federal government assumes that public sector borrowing requirements will be reduced from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% of GDP in 2024-28 and economic growth …
Three years after the pandemic began, the imbalance in the public accounts looks to be finally returning to pre-COVID levels. However, public expenditure will be 6 pp of GDP higher than three years ago.
Sound budget execution data lead to an improvement in the public deficit forecast to 4.2% of GDP in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. The reduction of the imbalance will be limited by announced or prolonged measures, by the impact of inflation on spending and by the effect that the slowdown may have
In 2022, the support measures put in place by the government in a bid to combat rising energy prices are expected to reach 16 billion euros, or around 1.3% of GDP. Despite this, the imbalance in the public accounts is following a similar path t…
Sound budget execution data introduce positive biases on the deficit forecast in 2022, while the slowdown in activity in 2023 will dampen the cyclical recovery of the government balance. Deficit projections are revised to 5.5% of GDP in 2022 an…
2021 closed with a deficit of 6.8% of GDP, the same as estimated three months ago. The invasion of Ukraine and measures to mitigate the rise in energy prices slow down the adjustment, and the deficit is expected to fall to 6.0% in 2022. In 2023…
The latest budget execution data lead to a revision of the deficit to 6.8% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022. In 2023, the cyclical recovery of activity will favour the correction of the public deficit to 3.0%. Implementation of the Recovery Plan remains sluggish, and support will take time to reach households and firms.
The rise in infections over the past month and increased costs throughout most of the past year herald a weakening of the recovery in Spain at the beginning of 2022.
