Publications

As of September 2026, the Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (SHRFSP) stood at 52.6% of GDP. Although total revenues were lower than budgeted, a reduction in total spending, mainly due among other factors to lower financial costs, favored the public balance.

Global public finances face rising debt and higher costs. Unlike France (122% of GDP), Peru maintains a solid position with debt below 30% of GDP and 3.5% growth, allowing it to address contingencies while maintaining sustainability.

Colombia’s economy will grow 2.6% in 2026, ease to 2.3% in 2027, and rebound to 3.1% in 2028. The 2027 slowdown will be temporary as growth shifts from public to private-sector support, which will strengthen in 2028. Fiscal imbalances and inflation remain the key challenges ahead.

The 2027 economic package projects a gradual fiscal consolidation with a wide deficit of -3.9% of GDP. Despite fiscal prudence, challenges remain due to low tax collection and spending rigidity. Seeking revenue growth without a comprehensive reform limits fiscal space for more public investment.

The US economy shows solid dynamism, with an estimated growth of 2.4%, driven by AI investment and expansionary fiscal policy. However, there are significant risks such as the sustainability of the AI boom, a high public deficit, and inflationary pressures.

Discretionary measures linked to geopolitical tensions and severe storms raise the deficit to 2.8% of GDP in 2026. Their withdrawal should reduce it to 2.5% in 2027, but structural expenditure pressures will continue to constrain long-term fiscal consolidation.

The Valencian Community maintains high growth but faces a slowdown due to less momentum in services (both tourism and other sectors) and the gradual exhaustion of support measures following the DANA.