Publications

The US economy shows solid dynamism, with an estimated growth of 2.4%, driven by AI investment and expansionary fiscal policy. However, there are significant risks such as the sustainability of the AI boom, a high public deficit, and inflationary pressures.

Discretionary measures linked to geopolitical tensions and severe storms raise the deficit to 2.8% of GDP in 2026. Their withdrawal should reduce it to 2.5% in 2027, but structural expenditure pressures will continue to constrain long-term fiscal consolidation.

The Valencian Community maintains high growth but faces a slowdown due to less momentum in services (both tourism and other sectors) and the gradual exhaustion of support measures following the DANA.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.7% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 50.4% in March 2026. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.7% by year-end.

The 2027 Preliminary General Economic Policy Guidelines maintain a responsible fiscal stance, but they rely on more optimistic assumptions than the market, which increases the risk of failing to meet fiscal targets.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

Public deficit is estimated to have declined to 2.4% of GDP in 2025, supported by the cyclical recovery and the reduced impact of the extraordinary factors observed in 2024. Compliance with fiscal rules would bring the deficit down to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, provided additional consolidation measures are adopted.