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    April 22, 2022

    Spain | Fiscal Watch 2Q22

    2021 closed with a deficit of 6.8% of GDP, the same as estimated three months ago. The invasion of Ukraine and measures to mitigate the rise in energy prices slow down the adjustment, and the deficit is expected to fall to 6.0% in 2022. In 2023, the deficit would fall to 4.6% of GDP.

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    January 28, 2022

    Spain | Fiscal Watch 1Q22

    The latest budget execution data lead to a revision of the deficit to 6.8% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022. In 2023, the cyclical recovery of activity will favour the correction of the public deficit to 3.0%. Implementation of the Recovery Plan remains sluggish, and support will take time to reach households and firms.

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    January 24, 2022

    Spain | “And yet it moves”

    The rise in infections over the past month and increased costs throughout most of the past year herald a weakening of the recovery in Spain at the beginning of 2022.

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    November 2, 2021

    Spain | Fiscal Watch 3Q21

    Good budgetary implementation data introduce positive biases on the deficit scenario, and the forecast is revised to 7.0% of GDP in 2021 and 5.0% in 2022. The expected impact of the Recovery Plan in 2021 is downgraded and carried forward to the following years.

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    July 26, 2021

    Spain | Fiscal watch 3Q21

    Positive development on tax collection and a lower impact of the pandemic introduce biases in the deficit forecasts, which are revised to 7.7% of GDP in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022. The approval of the Recovery Plan and the suspension of fiscal rules anticipate that fiscal policy will remain expansionary.

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    April 28, 2021

    Spain | Fiscal watch 2Q21

    The 2020 health crisis resulted in a large deficit of 10.1% of GDP and pushed public debt up to 120%. Going forward, fiscal policy will be conditioned by the suspension of fiscal rules and the arrival of Recovery funds, which suggests that it will remain expansionary.

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    April 19, 2021

    Colombia | Third time's the charm?

    After weeks of waiting, the Government's tax and social reform proposal is now published. The proposal seeks to stabilize the public debt and presents several issues to improve the tax system and social spending, while some issues should be discussed deeply and free of passionate feelings.

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    February 1, 2021

    Spain | Public deficit, permanent or temporary?

    The deficit the crisis has left in public accounts probably reached 11.5% of the GDP in 2020. Moreover, in the short term, the imbalance in public accounts may have to go back to historically high levels again in 2021 in order to sustain activity.

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