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May 6, 2025
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.4% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be 53.0% at year-end with a public deficit and PSBR of 3.8% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively.
April 9, 2025
The public deficit looks to have ended 2024 at 2.8% of GDP (excluding the funds set aside to support the victims of the flash floods that struck in October). It is exactly the size of the fiscal imbalance recorded back in 2019.
April 2, 2025
The 2026 General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria confirm the intention of the federal government to regain fiscal discipline by setting a target of 0.6% of GDP for the primary surplus and look to achieve stability around 52.3% of GDP for public debt in 2025 and 2026, sending a positive signal.
March 26, 2025
The deficit is estimated to have stood at 3.3% of GDP at the end of 2024, and is projected to decline to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Compliance with fiscal rules would entail a slightly tighter fiscal stance over the 2025–2026 period.
February 5, 2025
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.4% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect this indicator of public debt-to-GDP ratio to be 53.1% at year-end.
December 19, 2024
Fiscal consolidation is expected to accelerate in the final quarter of the year, bringing the public deficit closer to 3.0% of GDP. Fiscal adjustment in 2025 and 2026 will depend on the implementation of the new fiscal rules and the effectiveness of tax measures.
August 16, 2024
A fiscal consolidation that would imply a public deficit of 3.0% of GDP (-3.5% of PSBR) is expected for next year, which would occur with a primary surplus and financial cost of 0.4% and 3.4% of GDP, respectively.
August 2, 2024
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 47.2% of GDP at the end of the first semester. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.
July 2, 2024
The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will depend on new fiscal rules.
January 19, 2024
2023 deficit estimate remains at around 4,1% of GDP. In 2024 with the prolongation of the Central Government Budget and part of the anti-crisis measures, the deficit would be reduced to 3.7% of GDP. This scenario points to a smooth downward path in public debt ratio to 105% of GDP.
