Pro-cyclical policies and threats to the viability of the eurozone are two obstacles that are best avoided as we move forward. What’s left of the fiscal consolidation process is certainly significant and there should first be a consensus on how best achieve it.
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September 11, 2023
Mexico | The 2024 Economic Package will close six-year term without fiscal disequilibrium
The 2024 Economic Package was built with realistic macroeconomic assumptions. The fiscal equilibrium will be maintained in spite of such package setting a target of -1.2% of GDP for next year’s primary balance.
The central government has subsidized the interest payable by the regional governments by guaranteeing them interest rates below what they would have paid had they borrowed on the market. The higher the debt incurred, the larger the transfer fr…
The next federal government will face a strong pressure on its public finances derived from current spending, pensions and the needs of higher physical investment.
The worse deficit performance in 2022 introduced negative biases on the forecast. As a result, the deficit forecast for 2023 is downgraded to 4.2% of GDP. With no fiscal policy changes, and considering the war-related measures as temporary, the…
The public deficit appears to be inconsistent with the cyclical position of the Spanish economy. It is contributing to inflation remaining high, in an environment where the unemployment rate is at a 15-year low.
Given that rainy funds have already been exhausted by the current government and the pressure from some items of public spending will continue, the next government will not have enough fiscal space to avoid creating and/or raising taxes.
The latest budget execution data confirm that during the latter part of 2022 the path of adjustment slowed down and the estimate of 3.9% of GDP for the public deficit in 2022 and 2023 is maintained. In a no-policy-change scenario, the cycle wil…
The Latin American economy faces crosswinds in a scenario of disequilibrium, in line with international dynamics, where the main economic variables are still adjusting after the disruptive events of the most recent years.
For the stability of the broadest public debt (% of GDP) indicator in the following years, the federal government assumes that public sector borrowing requirements will be reduced from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% of GDP in 2024-28 and economic growth …
Three years after the pandemic began, the imbalance in the public accounts looks to be finally returning to pre-COVID levels. However, public expenditure will be 6 pp of GDP higher than three years ago.
Sound budget execution data lead to an improvement in the public deficit forecast to 4.2% of GDP in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. The reduction of the imbalance will be limited by announced or prolonged measures, by the impact of inflation on spending and by the effect that the slowdown may have