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Discretionary measures linked to geopolitical tensions and severe storms raise the deficit to 2.8% of GDP in 2026. Their withdrawal should reduce it to 2.5% in 2027, but structural expenditure pressures will continue to constrain long-term fiscal consolidation.

This study analyses the evolution of revenues, expenditures, budget balance, and debt of Spain’s autonomous communities from 2003 to 2025. It adjusts for the impact of atypical factors such as the pandemic in order to show the underlying deficit and the true financial situation.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.7% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 50.4% in March 2026. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.7% by year-end.

Public deficit fell to 2.4% of GDP in 2025, in line with expectations, supported by strong revenue growth and temporary factors. Under a no-policy-change scenario, the deficit is expected to decline to 2.3% of GDP in 2026 and stand at 2.4% by the end of 2027.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 52.0% in 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.

Public finances could achieve a balanced primary budget this year, marking an important step toward sustained debt reduction. However, part of this improvement is due to cyclical causes. In addition, the possible slowdown in the economy and lower inflation work against this reduction.