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A fiscal consolidation that would imply a public deficit of 3.0% of GDP (-3.5% of PSBR) is expected for next year, which would occur with a primary surplus and financial cost of 0.4% and 3.4% of GDP, respectively.
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 47.2% of GDP at the end of the first semester. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.
By the end of 2024, the public deficit is expected to finish at levels similar to those of 2019. However, this apparent similarity hides profound differences in the composition of revenues and expenses.
The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will…
2023 deficit estimate remains at around 4,1% of GDP. In 2024 with the prolongation of the Central Government Budget and part of the anti-crisis measures, the deficit would be reduced to 3.7% of GDP. This scenario points to a smooth downward pat…
Pro-cyclical policies and threats to the viability of the eurozone are two obstacles that are best avoided as we move forward. What’s left of the fiscal consolidation process is certainly significant and there should first be a consensus on how best achieve it.
The 2024 Economic Package was built with realistic macroeconomic assumptions. The fiscal equilibrium will be maintained in spite of such package setting a target of -1.2% of GDP for next year’s primary balance.
The central government has subsidized the interest payable by the regional governments by guaranteeing them interest rates below what they would have paid had they borrowed on the market. The higher the debt incurred, the larger the transfer fr…
The next federal government will face a strong pressure on its public finances derived from current spending, pensions and the needs of higher physical investment.
The worse deficit performance in 2022 introduced negative biases on the forecast. As a result, the deficit forecast for 2023 is downgraded to 4.2% of GDP. With no fiscal policy changes, and considering the war-related measures as temporary, the…
The public deficit appears to be inconsistent with the cyclical position of the Spanish economy. It is contributing to inflation remaining high, in an environment where the unemployment rate is at a 15-year low.
Given that rainy funds have already been exhausted by the current government and the pressure from some items of public spending will continue, the next government will not have enough fiscal space to avoid creating and/or raising taxes.
