Publications

The economy is showing resilience thanks to expansionary fiscal policy and the mild impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. However, the expiration of public aid and European funds, together with higher costs, points to an economic slowdown during the second half of the year.

This study analyses the evolution of revenues, expenditures, budget balance, and debt of Spain’s autonomous communities from 2003 to 2025. It adjusts for the impact of atypical factors such as the pandemic in order to show the underlying deficit and the true financial situation.

This presentation provides an overview of global military expenditure trends in 2025, drawing on the latest data released on 27 April by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The increase in military spending in Spain to 2% of GDP will boost the economy and technological sectors through direct and indirect effects. However, the impact will be unequal due to the high dependence on foreign inputs and the strong territorial concentration of the industry.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 52.0% in 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.

Public finances could achieve a balanced primary budget this year, marking an important step toward sustained debt reduction. However, part of this improvement is due to cyclical causes. In addition, the possible slowdown in the economy and lower inflation work against this reduction.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.3% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be 52.6% at year-end with a public deficit and PSBR of 3.8% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively.