August 2, 2022
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The Ministry of Finance estimates that the loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels will be around MXN 421,600 million (1.5% of GDP) and oil-related income will be MXN 368,710 million (1.3% of GDP) above budget. Consequently, this windfall income will not be enough to compensate the revenue loss of the former.
En Colombia, la demanda interna y la conyuntura externa han presionado al alza la inflación. La respuesta del Banco de la República, mediante la subida de tasas, apunta a una desaceleración saludable de la economía en 2023 y una recuperación en 2024. El consumo y el gasto público determinrán el crecimiento sectorial.
The COVID-induced crisis has left a legacy of more public debt and higher public deficits in Spain. Moreover, the envisaged path of budget balances makes public accounts more exposed to the existing risk scenarios.
The findings of this document seem to confirm that fiscal policy in Mexico has been procyclical in the period spanning from 1993 to 2019.
In March 2022 the historic balance of public sector borrowing requirements (HBPSBR) was 46.8% vs. 50.0% of GDP in December 2021. The reduction in such balance was due to the fall of 1.7 and 1.5 percentage points of GDP in the internal and external debt component, respectively.
The forecasts of the Stability Program point to a fairly strong recovery, with GDP growth above potential, but the public accounts suggest a cyclical improvement of the deficit rather than its structural component.
The Government's forecasts in the Stability Program should make it clear that economic recovery will not be enough to consistently reduce the public deficit. Everything points to part of the expenditure having taken a structural leap and that the historically high level of tax revenue is only temporary.
Over the past two years, our lives have been constrained by the outbreak of a virus that caused one of the biggest health crises in recent decades. The challenge of facing this unprecedented situation has left its mark on everyone, as well as scars in government finance.