Publications

In 2Q26, GDP grew by 0.7% QoQ, one tenth higher than expected, which introduces an upward bias to the 2026 forecast. Private consumption remained solid, while investment and exports advanced less than expected. Employment supported growth and productivity showed mixed signs.

Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, defense has become key in Europe. BBVA Research has developed a high-frequency indicator based on Council of Ministers agreements to track Spanish defense spending. Data shows a significant rise since 2022, reflecting a clear modernization of national defense capabilities.

The economy is showing resilience thanks to expansionary fiscal policy and the mild impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. However, the expiration of public aid and European funds, together with higher costs, points to an economic slowdown during the second half of the year.

This study analyses the evolution of revenues, expenditures, budget balance, and debt of Spain’s autonomous communities from 2003 to 2025. It adjusts for the impact of atypical factors such as the pandemic in order to show the underlying deficit and the true financial situation.

This presentation provides an overview of global military expenditure trends in 2025, drawing on the latest data released on 27 April by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The increase in military spending in Spain to 2% of GDP will boost the economy and technological sectors through direct and indirect effects. However, the impact will be unequal due to the high dependence on foreign inputs and the strong territorial concentration of the industry.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 52.0% in 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.