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Agency’s ratings have remained stable or changes have been positive in Advanced Economies (AE), despite the negative impact of the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening. On the contrary, rating changes have been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), although mainly due to idiosyncratic factors.
In the following years public finances will continue to be pressured by the payment of pensions still remaining from the pay-as-you-go old system, guaranteed pensions and capital injections to Pemex.
Agencies’ Ratings have remained relative stable since the start of the COVID pandemic and through 2021. Changes have been mainly concentrated in Emerging Economies. Sovereign spreads have been clearly influenced by the strong and coordinated re…
Agencies' sovereign ratings and sovereign spreads in the CDS markets have remained relatively stable over the past year despite the current pandemic crisis and the large fiscal and economic activity deterioration, mainly due to the unprecedente…
Further improvement of sovereign risk measures across the board, driven by a protracted search for yield, against the background of supportive central bank policies, together with better incoming cyclical data, muted inflation and some de-escal…
In recent months we have witnessed a notable compression in sovereign CDS at the global level, in an economic scenario that is full of uncertainty and in which public debt is at an all-time high.
The search for yield and looser monetary policies across the board, favor sovereign spreads compression, despite a worsening global outlook, poorer incoming data and balance of risks, and the lack of improvement of fiscal disequilibria.
Against a background of increasing concerns on economic cycle strength and uprise of global trade tensions, the central banks' more dovish tone helps that financial tensions and global risk aversion remain bounded.
