Surplus latest publications

September 9, 2019

Mexico | 2020 Economic Package reinforces signals of fiscal discipline

Economic package reinforces signals of fiscal discipline by establishing a primary surplus target at a weak period of the business cycle.Consequently, it is positive that the federal government has proposed a primary surplus of 0.7% of GDP instead of the 1.3% that it had suggested in Pre-Criteria of economic policy for 2020

August 15, 2019

Mexico needs a counter-cyclical fiscal policy; a fiscal council would help

Considering the current circumstances of almost zero economic growth, there is no need to aim for a primary surplus similar to the one planned for this year (1% of GDP) in 2020. If properly reported, a smaller primary surplus may be welcomed by the markets.

November 28, 2018

Mexico | Stable debt to GDP ratio in 2019 with a minimum primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP

The stabilization of public debt as a share of GDP is one of the goals that the incoming federal public administration has set out to reach. Keeping the historical balance of PSBR stable around 46.5% of GDP in 2019, ceteris paribus, will be possible if the federal government achieves a minimum primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP.