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February 8, 2018

Mexico | Higher oil prices in 2017 helped to improve the fiscal and external balances

Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from…

December 1, 2017

Mexico | Lower production from local refineries contributed to widening the trade deficit

The trade balance posted a USD 2.1 billion deficit in October, a much higher number than the consensus expectation of USD 0.9 billion. This trade deficit is mostly explained by the oil trade deficit, which amounted to USD 1.8 billion

March 22, 2017

U.S. | Big data analysis: Trump effect on trade narratives

Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

March 14, 2017

Mexico | What is the US trade deficit with Mexico really saying?

State trade data for the US revealed that Michigan and California accounted for 87.4% of the US trade deficit with Mexico of USD 58.4 billion in 2015. Both states have large- and medium-sized cars as their top two import products, which contain a significant share of US inputs. Thus, such trade deficits do not reflect the t…

March 11, 2017

U.S. | The trade deficit: Don’t fear the beast

Public perception towards the trade deficit has shifted from being fact-based to sentiment-based. Economic pattern of the deficit strongly correlates with the structural shift in the U.S. economy. U.S. has a higher per capita deficit with Ireland and Germany than it does with China or Mexico
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

July 29, 2016

Spain | Balance of payments continued to show financing capacity until May

The balance of payment registered a surplus of 4.267 millions of euros in May, which, on the positive side, was explained by tourism and the lower energetic deficit. The financing account registered a net capital outflow of 35.273 millions of euros after excluding the Bank of Spain. This occurred due to a rise in outward i…

June 30, 2016

Spain | Trade flows improve while financial investment flows worsen in April

The balance of payments registered a 2671 million of euro superavit, which can be explained through the positive balance in tourism and a lower energetic deficit. Good exports recovered dynamism at the start of 2T16, while imports fell back (2,0% and -2,0% MoM cvec). The fall in investment flows resulted in an influx of cap…

May 20, 2016

Spain | Trade flows grew in 1Q16, despite the monthly volatility

BBVA Research estimates that, in seasonally adjusted terms, both real imports and exports of goods grew in 1Q16 (0,6% y 1,4% QoQ, respectively). The improvement in the energy bill balance in March casued a smaller deficit in the trade balance (23.514 millions of euros in the 12 month accumulate).