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We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year under the expectation of lower GDP growth when compared to 2022. To promote both nearshoring and FDI flows into Mexico, the country will have to invest more in electrical infrastructure and, particularly, in transmission lines.
We expect the trade balance to show lower deficits or even surpluses in some quarters of next year under a scenario of a significant slowdown of global economic growth. Moreover, nearshoring and relocation of global supply chains will continue supporting FDI flows into Mexico in the medium and long run.
Given the anticipated slowdown in external demand growth for the next quarters and its negative impact on Mexican imports associated with global value chains, it is predictable for the trade balance to show lower deficits.
Information corresponding to 1Q22 indicates that the current account registered a deficit of USD 6.5 billion, whose annualized figure is equal to 1.9% of GDP. For 2022 we forecast that the current account will post a deficit of USD 12.0 billion…
The significantly better-than-expected export growth boosted by coronavirus-related product shipments, together with a volume expansion while total value dipping import growth helped to maintain the growth momentum extending in 2H 2020.
Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from…
The trade balance posted a USD 2.1 billion deficit in October, a much higher number than the consensus expectation of USD 0.9 billion. This trade deficit is mostly explained by the oil trade deficit, which amounted to USD 1.8 billion
Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration
State trade data for the US revealed that Michigan and California accounted for 87.4% of the US trade deficit with Mexico of USD 58.4 billion in 2015. Both states have large- and medium-sized cars as their top two import products, which contain…
Public perception towards the trade deficit has shifted from being fact-based to sentiment-based. Economic pattern of the deficit strongly correlates with the structural shift in the U.S. economy. U.S. has a higher per capita deficit with Irela…
The balance of payment registered a surplus of 4.267 millions of euros in May, which, on the positive side, was explained by tourism and the lower energetic deficit. The financing account registered a net capital outflow of 35.273 millions of euros after excluding the Bank of Spain. This occurred due to a rise in outward i…
The balance of payments registered a 2671 million of euro superavit, which can be explained through the positive balance in tourism and a lower energetic deficit. Good exports recovered dynamism at the start of 2T16, while imports fell back (2,0% and -2,0% MoM cvec). The fall in investment flows resulted in an influx of cap…
