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The trade balance reversed its behavior of the end of last year and posted a deficit in the first quarter of 2024. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, this deficit reflects that the Mexican economy reassumed its growth path at the beginning of the year.

We summarize China’s Balance of Payments situation in 2023 post-pandemic time and compare it with the pandemic time; we also predict its trend in 2024.

By the end of 2023, Mexico recorded a trade deficit of 5,463 million dollars ($5.46 bn). Manufacturing leads both exports and imports. Mexico solidified its position as the leading supplier in the US market while FDI dropped slightly in 2023.

The trade balance had not posted a surplus since 2Q21. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, the trade surplus in 4Q23 is another indicator that suggests that the growth of the Mexican economy slowed d…

In the third quarter, the current account deficit continued to narrow and reached 1.68 billion dollars, representing 1.7% of GDP. Nevertheless, the reasons for this closing are not as good as others: they respond to the process of contraction t…

To allow the country to maximize the economic benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could formulate a national infrastructure plan and favor an industrial policy that enhances investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and information technologies.

To increase the benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could design and implement a national infrastructure plan that contributes to expand and improve the quality of roads, railways, ports, industrial complexes and transmission lines.

We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year due to the expectation of 2.4% for GDP growth vs. 3.0% in 2022. To increase the benefits of nearshoring, public policies will have to contribute to the expansion of infrastructure an…

We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year under the expectation of lower GDP growth when compared to 2022. To promote both nearshoring and FDI flows into Mexico, the country will have to invest more in electrical infrastruct…

We expect the trade balance to show lower deficits or even surpluses in some quarters of next year under a scenario of a significant slowdown of global economic growth. Moreover, nearshoring and relocation of global supply chains will continue …

Given the anticipated slowdown in external demand growth for the next quarters and its negative impact on Mexican imports associated with global value chains, it is predictable for the trade balance to show lower deficits.

Information corresponding to 1Q22 indicates that the current account registered a deficit of USD 6.5 billion, whose annualized figure is equal to 1.9% of GDP. For 2022 we forecast that the current account will post a deficit of USD 12.0 billion (0.9% of GDP).