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In the last few months, a depression appears to have arrived that has poured cold water on economic forecasts — affecting in particular the autonomous communities of the North. This correction, however, does not stop us from repeating once again that in both 2021 and 2022, growth is expected to reach historical highs.
The COVID-19 crisis has severely disrupted value chains. Not only during the onset, but also in recent months. In light of this, BBVA Research has significantly revised growth forecasts downward.
The best reasons to assume that the recovery in Spain will continue over the next few months are the high vaccination rate and the wealth accumulated by certain households during the crisis. Both factors will enable household expenditure to continue to rise, as it has in the last six months.
These were the words of Christine Lagarde, when she began to field the round of questions at last Thursday's press conference after the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting — giving the impression that this had been the main topic of discussion.
U.S. fiscal plans are expected to boost demand in global markets, thus positively impacting global GDP. The “direct” impact on the Spanish economy is expected to be small, given Spain’s low trade and financial exposure to the U.S., but the “indirect” impact could turn out to be higher.
On December 30, the EU and China reached an agreement to expand mutual investment opportunities, pending approval by the European Parliament in the second half of 2021.
The rules-based approach to the governance of the trade of goods and services and investment flows is facing increasing challenges against the background of rivalry between the United States, China and Europe. The Asian country now being considered a strategic competitor and a systemic rival.
Sustainability is not a normative objective, related with values, apart from making efficient use of scarce resources. On the contrary, it is a positive imperative: evidence is building up that temperatures are rising rapidly, and there is mounting concern over the negative consequences of non-inclusive growth.