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Consumer prices rose by %2.97 m/m in September, higher than our expectation (2.5%). The annual consumer inflation came down below 50% on the back of base effects, while the underlying consumer inflation trend worsened. We expect inflation to decrease to 43% and 25% by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Consumer prices rose by %2.47 m/m in August, higher than our expectation (2.2%) and consensus (2.3%). As a result, annual consumer inflation came down to 51.9% from 61.8% previously. We forecast inflation trend to improve; reaching 1.5-2% monthly in 4Q24 and finish the year annually at 43% in 2024 and 25% in 2025.
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate at 50% in line with the expectations. They repeat their commitment to support monetary transmission mechanism via additional macro-prudential measures if needed.
Consumer inflation increased by 3.23% m/m in July, slightly lower than our expectation, while the annual inflation declined to 61.8% from 72% in June on favorable base effect. We expect the annual inflation to decline below %50 as of September …
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations, maintaining a wait and see approach with a hawkish message. They highlight a potential temporary increase in monthly inflation in July, but expect the rise in the underlyin…
Consumer prices rose by 1.64% m/m in June, well below our expectation (2.24%), which led to an annual inflation of 71.60%. We expect the monthly consumer inflation trend to continue to weaken, driving the annual inflation down to 45-50% range by September and to 43% by the end of 2024.
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to start easing cycle very gradually in 4Q24 considering high inflation expectations.
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year e…
The CBRT maintained the policy rate (50%) and the range between borrowing and lending rates (600 bps). They remain cautious about the risks on inflation outlook. On financial stability concerns, they aim to sterilize excess TL liquidity stemmin…
Consumer prices rose by 3.18% in April, parallel to our expectation of 3.1% and slightly lower than the consensus of 3.4%, which led to an annual inflation of 69.8%. Given the expectations of a tighter policy mix in the coming period, we acknow…
The CBRT kept the policy rate constant at 50% in line with market expectations. We expect the CBRT to remain tight for longer on high inflation expectations, which would start a sustained path to unwind current regulations and exit from the FC protected scheme to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism.
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradual currency depreciation and continuing demand restrictive policies.
