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Consumer prices increased by 1.2% in December and annual consumer inflation fell sharply on base effects to 64.3% from the previous 84.4%, leading to a full year average of 72.3%. We expect annual CPI to come down to 50-55% in 1Q23 and decline further to 40-45% just before the elections and year-end inflation to be 42%.
Consumer prices rose by 2.9% in November (vs. 3% both consensus and our exp.), leading to limited decline in annual inflation figure of 84.4% (85.5% prev.). We forecast 2022 year end inflation to be 67% given the recent favourable base effects and the Government’s efforts to maintain manageable currency depreciation.
Consumer prices rose by 2.37% in July, once again below market consensus (2.6%) and our expectation (4%), which led to an annual inflation of 79.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months before slowing down t…
Consumer prices increased by 4.95% in June, slightly lower than market consensus (5.7%) and our expectation (5.5%), which resulted in an annual figure of 78.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months led by lo…
Consumer prices increased by 2.98% in May, much lower than market consensus (4%), which resulted in an annual figure of 73.5%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 80% in the coming months before slowing down to near 60% given posit…
Consumer inflation increased by 7.25% mom in April, leading annual inflation to reach 70%. High commodity prices, deteriorated inflation expectations and ongoing global supply-side problems are the upside risks on our expectation anticipating inflation to hover above 70% till November before fall to 50% at the end of 2022.
Consumer prices increased by 5.5% in March, parallel to expectations and resulted in an annual inflation of 61.1% up from 54.4% the month before. Looking ahead, we expect consumer inflation to hover near 70% in 2Q and 3Q and decline to 50% at the end of the year, led by the favorable base effects.
Consumer prices increased by 11.1% in January parallel to expectations and resulted in an annual inflation of 48.7% up from 36.1% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to remain around 55% in 2Q and 3Q before falling down to 35% at the…
Consumer prices increased by 3.51% in in November, resulting in an annual inflation of 21.31% up from 19.89% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to surprise on the upside in the coming months with levels likely getting close to 30% t…
Consumer prices increased by 2.39% in October surprisingly lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 19.89% up from 19.58% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to be 19.5% at the end of the year, with risks clearly …
Consumer prices increased by 1.25% in September resulting in an annual inflation of 19.58%, up from 19.25%. We expect consumer inflation to increase further in October before declining to near 17% at the end of the year, with the positive base effects, where risks are clearly on the upside.
The Central Bank of Turkey maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. We expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle very gradually in 4Q (depending on the potential market volatility and upside risks on the inflation) and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
