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After the local election results, we expect the maintenance of current economic policies with more aggressive tightening in the short term. Therefore, expected additional restrictive measures might generate downside risk on our short term inflation (45% by 2024 end) and growth (3.5% for 2024) forecasts.
After increased concerns on inflation outlook and uncertainty ahead of the local election, there has been additional stress on the Turkish financial markets most recently. We expect more restrictive policies going forward, which will keep the current stabilization program on course.
Turkish economy grew by 4.0% y/y in 4Q23 (vs. 3.6% exp. and consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 4.5% in 2023. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, for which we envisage pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital i…
We expect GDP growth to materialize closer to 4.5% in 2023 and decelerate to nearly 3.5% in 2024, where the fiscal stance and the size of capital inflows will be decisive. Leading indicators show that domestic demand remains stronger than suppl…
Turkish economy grew by 5.9% y/y in 3Q, above the market consensus of 5.3% but parallel to our expectation of 6%. We expect GDP growth rate to be 4.5% in 2023 but decelerate to 3.5% in 2024 with a bias to the downside.
Turkish economy grew by 3.8% in 2Q23 in annual terms slightly above the market consensus of 3.5% (vs. our expectation of 4.5%), which corresponds to 5% GDP growth if the calendar day adjustment is made. We expect GDP growth to materialize in the range of 4% to 4.5% with a high probability.
Consumer prices rose by 9.49% in July, higher than our expectation (9%) and market consensus (8.6%) while annual consumer inflation accelerated significantly to 47.8% from 38.2% the month before. We expect annual consumer inflation to accelerate to near 65% at the end of 2023 and only decline to 35-40% by 2024 year-end.
Consumer prices rose by 3.92% in June, lower than both our expectation (4.85%) and market consensus (4.3%), whereas annual inflation dropped to 38.2% from 39.6% in May on favorable base effects led by energy prices. We expect annual consumer in…
Consumer prices rose by 0.04% in May on zero natural gas prices, led annual figure to fall 39.6% on favorable base effect. Even assuming a gradual depreciation in the currency, we expect 2023 year-end inflation to get closer to 50%.
Consumer prices rose by 2.4% m/m in April, lower than both our expectation and consensus (2.6%, 2.7% respectively), whereas annual inflation came down to 43.7% from 50.5% on favorable base effects. We expect year-end consumer inflation to be 45…
Consumer prices rose by 2.3% in March, lower than our expectations (2.5%) and consensus (2.8%) while annual inflation neared 50.5%. We maintain our year end inflation forecast of 45% but acknowledge upside risks due to OPEC+ oil production cut, potential minimum wage hike in July, ongoing high inertia and robust demand.
Consumer prices rose by 3.15% in January, lower than both our expectations (4.2%) and market consensus (3.5%) and annual inflation continued to come down to 55.2% (57.7% in Jan.). Following our revisions after the quakes, we revised our year-end inflation forecasts to 45% and 24% for 2023 and 2024, respectively.
