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Consumer prices rose by 6.65% in January, significantly above both our expectation of 4%, while annual CPI slowed down to 57.7% on favorable base effects. We expect annual CPI to come down to 40-45% just before the elections and reach 42% by year end.
Consumer prices increased by 1.2% in December and annual consumer inflation fell sharply on base effects to 64.3% from the previous 84.4%, leading to a full year average of 72.3%. We expect annual CPI to come down to 50-55% in 1Q23 and decline further to 40-45% just before the elections and year-end inflation to be 42%.
Consumer prices rose by 2.9% in November (vs. 3% both consensus and our exp.), leading to limited decline in annual inflation figure of 84.4% (85.5% prev.). We forecast 2022 year end inflation to be 67% given the recent favourable base effects …
Consumer price inflation accelerated further by 3.54% in October, parallel to market expectations but below our expectation (4.5%), which led to an annual inflation of 85.5%. We expect consumer inflation to remain in the range of 65% to 70% at …
Consumer prices rose by 3.08% in September, below both market consensus (3.15%) and our expectation (3.7%), which led to an annual inflation of 83.5%. We expect consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year as base effects would start a d…
Consumer prices rose by 1.46% in August, once again below both market consensus and our expectation (2%), which led to an annual inflation of 80.2%. We forecast consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year and 33% at the end of 2023, with risks remaining on the upside.
Consumer prices rose by 2.37% in July, once again below market consensus (2.6%) and our expectation (4%), which led to an annual inflation of 79.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months before slowing down to near 70% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.
Consumer prices increased by 4.95% in June, slightly lower than market consensus (5.7%) and our expectation (5.5%), which resulted in an annual figure of 78.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months led by lo…
Consumer prices increased by 2.98% in May, much lower than market consensus (4%), which resulted in an annual figure of 73.5%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 80% in the coming months before slowing down to near 60% given posit…
Consumer inflation increased by 7.25% mom in April, leading annual inflation to reach 70%. High commodity prices, deteriorated inflation expectations and ongoing global supply-side problems are the upside risks on our expectation anticipating i…
Turkish economy grew by 5.9% yoy in 4Q20, bringing the full year GDP growth to 1.8% in 2020. We maintain our 2021 GDP forecast at 5% with some upside risks, given the current strong momentum.
Industrial Production (IP) grew by 8.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (+11.2% yoy in unadjusted series) in September, resulting in an increase of 8% in 3Q after the sharp contraction of 17% in 2Q. Given the strong 3Q and October-November high frequency data, 2020 GDP growth rate will be above our current forecast of 0%.
