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Consumer prices rose by 2.4% m/m in April, lower than both our expectation and consensus (2.6%, 2.7% respectively), whereas annual inflation came down to 43.7% from 50.5% on favorable base effects. We expect year-end consumer inflation to be 45%, assuming a manageable depreciation of the currency after the elections.
Consumer prices rose by 2.3% in March, lower than our expectations (2.5%) and consensus (2.8%) while annual inflation neared 50.5%. We maintain our year end inflation forecast of 45% but acknowledge upside risks due to OPEC+ oil production cut, potential minimum wage hike in July, ongoing high inertia and robust demand.
Consumer prices rose by 3.15% in January, lower than both our expectations (4.2%) and market consensus (3.5%) and annual inflation continued to come down to 55.2% (57.7% in Jan.). Following our revisions after the quakes, we revised our year-en…
Consumer prices rose by 6.65% in January, significantly above both our expectation of 4%, while annual CPI slowed down to 57.7% on favorable base effects. We expect annual CPI to come down to 40-45% just before the elections and reach 42% by ye…
Consumer prices increased by 1.2% in December and annual consumer inflation fell sharply on base effects to 64.3% from the previous 84.4%, leading to a full year average of 72.3%. We expect annual CPI to come down to 50-55% in 1Q23 and decline …
Consumer prices rose by 2.9% in November (vs. 3% both consensus and our exp.), leading to limited decline in annual inflation figure of 84.4% (85.5% prev.). We forecast 2022 year end inflation to be 67% given the recent favourable base effects and the Government’s efforts to maintain manageable currency depreciation.
Consumer price inflation accelerated further by 3.54% in October, parallel to market expectations but below our expectation (4.5%), which led to an annual inflation of 85.5%. We expect consumer inflation to remain in the range of 65% to 70% at the end of 2022 due to the weaker realizations in the last few months.
Consumer prices rose by 3.08% in September, below both market consensus (3.15%) and our expectation (3.7%), which led to an annual inflation of 83.5%. We expect consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year as base effects would start a d…
Consumer prices rose by 1.46% in August, once again below both market consensus and our expectation (2%), which led to an annual inflation of 80.2%. We forecast consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year and 33% at the end of 2023, wit…
Consumer prices rose by 2.37% in July, once again below market consensus (2.6%) and our expectation (4%), which led to an annual inflation of 79.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months before slowing down t…
Consumer prices increased by 4.95% in June, slightly lower than market consensus (5.7%) and our expectation (5.5%), which resulted in an annual figure of 78.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months led by loose economic policies and significantly deteriorating inflation expectations.
Consumer prices increased by 2.98% in May, much lower than market consensus (4%), which resulted in an annual figure of 73.5%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 80% in the coming months before slowing down to near 60% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.
