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According to the latest Quarterly Labor Market Observatory, published by BBVA Research and FEDEA, Spain's labor market continues to exhibit strong job creation, although persistent imbalances necessitate structural reforms. Employment growth must translate into greater productivity and equity.

This edition of the OTMT examines labor market trends based on data available through Q1 2025. It reviews the main aggregate indicators and analyzes recent labor market flows, with a focus on closing gender gaps.

The national unemployment rate for March 2025 was 9.6% and the seasonally adjusted rate was 9.1% marking the third consecutive monthly decrease and placing it more than one percentage point below its 2024 average. This positive performance in the unemployment rate is mainly attributed to the strong dynamics of employment.

Colombia’s economy will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, driven by consumption and investment. Inflation will continue declining, though housing and energy costs will remain rigid. Monetary policy will gradually lower rates, while the external deficit will widen due to rising imports and lower remittance inflows.

The average national unemployment rate for 2024 was 10.2%, unchanged from 2023. In major cities, the unemployment rate declined between 2023 and 2024, whereas it increased in the rest of areas. Throughout 2024, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate trended downward, closing at 9.7% in December.

Notwithstanding BBVA Research's assessment that widespread deportations are improbable and that significant deviations in migration trends —beyond those tied to economic cycles and labor demand— are unlikely, a chilling effect could nonetheless materialize.

GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, driven by private consumption in durable goods, semi-durables, and services starting in 2026, and by fixed investment in infrastructure, machinery, and housing. Inflation will be 3.1% in 2026, with lower interest rates strengthening financial conditions.

The national unemployment rate for October stood at 9.1%, similar to the 9.2% recorded a year ago, and seasonally adjusted figures show it was similar to September of this year. In October, national employment levels remained stable compared to September (seasonally adjusted).