Mexico | Effective formal employment growth was 1.0%, not 2.0%

Summary

In June, formal employment in Mexico grew by 2.0% annually (IMSS). Excluding digital platform workers, effective growth is only 1.0%. This confirms a limited labor market recovery and a constrained impact from the 2026 World Cup.

Key points

• Key points:
• The creation of 263,000 jobs in the first half of the year is 36.6% below the 2010-2024 historical average. Adjusting for digital platform workers widens this gap to 44.1%.
• The employment boost associated with the 2026 FIFA World Cup was smaller than expected and did not alter the underlying labor market trend.
• Registered employers have declined for two consecutive years, consistent with weaker formal employment and other indicators of economic activity.
• Regionally, 17 states experienced annual declines in formal employment, notably Campeche (-4.1%) and Sonora (-2.6%). In contrast, the State of Mexico (4.8%) and Mexico City (4.6%) led the growth.
• Real wages grew by 2.9% year-on-year in July, driven by moderating inflation. However, the real wage bill, excluding platform workers, grew by 3.9%, below its historical average.

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