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May 20, 2025
Global | Measuring Technological Progress in Real Time with ArXiv
This report presents a novel method to track technological progress in real time using data from ArXiv, the world's most popular preprint repository in computer science, physics and mathematics.
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May 19, 2025
Spain | 28A: a flicker in consumption
On April 28, Spain experienced one of the most serious electricity blackouts in its history. Beyond the immediate collapse in activity, the blackout had a clear impact on consumer spending—especially purchases made using digital payment methods.
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May 16, 2025
Türkiye | Hard landing or not?
Hard data confirms a robust quarterly GDP growth in 1Q25, similar to the previous quarter (1.7% q/q in 4Q24), driven primarily by domestic demand. Leading indicators signal a broad-based weakening in activity for 2Q25. We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% with risks becoming tilted to downside.
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May 9, 2025
Spain | The blackout in real time: collapse and resilience of consumption after 28A
BBVA customers' card spending fell sharply on April 28, 2025, due to the power outage that affected the Iberian Peninsula. In particular, spending by customers residing in the affected areas was 41 percentage points below the average observed on non-holiday Mondays in April 2024.
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April 25, 2025
Türkiye | Tracking Sectoral GDP with Big Data and Nowcasting Models
We develop big data-based, high-frequency sectoral indicators using bank transaction data to nowcast real-time sectoral GDP growth, enhancing accuracy through modeling techniques and strong alignment with official statistics.
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April 21, 2025
Mexico | Moderate Consumption Growth in March
The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported 1.7% growth in March (MoM), following the zero growth recorded the previous month. By component, both spending on goods and services registered positive variations (goods 1.5%, services 2.4%).
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